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Smerconish

Does Harris Have A Path To 270?; Tumultuous Election Year, What Happens Next? Vetting Underway For Harris Running Mate. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired July 27, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:39]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: The summer of surprises. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

As my Sirius XM radio listeners can attest, a year ago I started saying that this election would be influenced by people whose names we do not know, and events we could never imagine. And still, I'm floored by what we've just witnessed since Memorial Day weekend. Think about it, on May 30 after a six week trial, former President Trump became a convicted felon when a jury said that he was guilty on 34 counts for falsifying business records in the New York hush money criminal trial. Sentencing was set for July 11. But Trump got a political reprieve on June 27 when 51 million people watched a disastrous CNN debate performance by President Biden.

Four days later, on July 1, the Supreme Court released its immunity decision, ruling that former presidents cannot be prosecuted for actions relating to their core powers of their office where Judged Tanya Chutkan must now wrestle with whether Trump's conduct on and around January 6, was part of his core function as president. The SCOTUS decision likely insulated Trump against a trial before Election Day. And as a result of that decision, Judge Juan Merchan reset his New York sentencing to September 18.

Four days later, President Biden sat down with ABCs George Stephanopoulos to address concerns about his health. Edie debate as to the success of his damage control ended when Stephanopoulos himself told a Fifth Avenue pedestrian that he didn't think Biden can serve four more years.

On July 10, George Clooney, who'd recently hosted a Biden fundraiser published an op-ed in the New York Times calling for Biden to end his campaign. Reports said that he first shared the essay with former President Barack Obama who must not have talked him out of the publication. And former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went on MSNBC to say whether Biden should continue was a decision for the President. Notwithstanding that the President was already on record saying he decided to stay in the race.

On July 11, Biden held a high stakes presser at the NATO summit and accidentally called Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Putin. By now, according to the "New York Times," the Biden campaign had begun polling on the viability of Vice President Harris. But the next day Biden headed to a rally in Motown where he appeared full of vim and vigor. Maybe he still had the fire in the belly.

One day later, on July 13, an attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump cast a dark cloud over the nation and the 2024 presidential race. An iconic photo of a defiant Trump would come to define that day.

Still trying to jumpstart his campaign, the President had to cut short a trip to Las Vegas after testing positive for COVID. Footage of his return to Andrews showed him weakened unsteady he hunkered down at his Delaware beach house as campaign spokespeople insisted he was in the race to stay. Republicans gathered in Milwaukee and welcomed Trump as a conquering hero. For three nights the nation watched as he appeared pensive and politically invincible. On the final night, he spoke and for the first 30 minutes, he seemed like a change man, which was then dispelled by the 60 minutes thereafter, where he deviated from the script and looked like his old self.

Still, the Republicans had a near flawless convention. Observers including David Axelrod said the likelihood of a Trump landslide was greater than a narrow Biden victory. Trump was now leading both in national and all battleground polls. But last Sunday afternoon, President Biden announced he was leaving the race and any hope for a blitz or mini primary ended when he said that he was giving his full support to Vice President Harris. Republicans initially welcomed the news after all, Senator Harris had dropped out of the 2020 election before a single vote was cast. She'd been labeled the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate and regardless of her title would forever be associated with the border crisis.

Instead, she has owned the week. The party leaders who pushed for Biden to step aside have all embraced her. Rank and file Democrats have rallied to her candidacy, supportive memes have multiplied. The celebrities have come home. There's a newfound enthusiasm among women and the young.

[09:05:02]

Money has poured in. And I haven't even mentioned JD Vance is defensive a statement about childless cat ladies. This sudden momentum shift has been borne out in a brand new Wall Street Journal poll that finds Harris erased Trump's lead with the two candidates essentially tied after Biden's exit from the race. And so the most improbable and unpredictable election of any of our lives remains just that. And on the horizon that we know of includes her selection of a running mate, a Democratic Convention in Chicago, and a previously scheduled presidential debate right after Labor Day.

And don't forget, Donald Trump's sentencing on September 18. That and the people whose names we do not know and the events we could never imagine, the only thing we know for sure is that it won't end until 100 days from tomorrow. National polls and momentum aside, does Harris have a path to 270? A Fox News poll just released shows Harris and Trump tied in the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and in Wisconsin, Trump is up by only one.

Joining me now to break down the numbers is CNN Senior Data reporter Harry Enten.

Harry, we appreciate you. Here's what I want to ask.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Go ahead.

SMERCONISH: In 2020 as you well know, seven states were determined by less than three points. I'm putting them up in yellow on the board, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where among the seven can Harris move the needle?

ENTEN: I mean, you mentioned those Fox News polls, I have them up on the screen right here. Wisconsin Trump plus one, Michigan tied, Pennsylvania tie. We can just simply say this, if she wins all those states in the Great Lake battlegrounds, she could lose in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. And get this, she gets to exactly 270 electoral votes.

Now you mentioned of course, the seventh, there is that Sunbelt pathway that she's hoping for. So let's say she loses in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, she could win in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, which of course Trump won last time around the reason that the Harris campaign believes they can be competitive there is because she's doing better with Black and Hispanic voters. And if in fact she is it opens up this pathway, which to be perfectly honest, the Joe Biden campaign had given up on.

SMERCONISH: So, Harry, I know that former President Trump and Senator Vance are headed to Minnesota, Minnesota is one of those states where Democrats with President Biden at the top of their ticket have had to play some defense. You can think Minnesota, you could think Virginia, you could think New Hampshire, is that still the case? Are Democrats still going to have to play defense there?

ENTEN: This I think is the biggest change from what we saw when Biden was in the race to now Harris being in the race. We have new polling from Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine. Look at this, there's a lot of blue on your screen, Harris up by six in Minnesota, Harris up by seven New Hampshire, Harris up by nine in Maine. If anything, the electoral map is constricting back to those seven core states that you spoke about at the top because these GOP reaches the states that might have been competitive in 2016, in 2024 they don't look to be competitive just like they really weren't competitive back in 2020.

SMERCONISH: The vice president has a very important choice on her hands. She needs to select her own running mate. You know that Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are getting a lot of attention, which of the two of them, in your opinion, based on data stands a better chance of delivering to the Democratic column their home state?

ENTEN: Yes, you know, sometimes the data tells us a lot and sometimes the data gives us a little question. Here's what we know. We do have up to date data on Josh Shapiro.

Look at this, his favorable rating in 2024 in Pennsylvania, 61 percent. Mark Kelly, interestingly enough, we don't actually have any recent polling data. We do know that he was the strongest Dem statewide in 2022. But for my money, for my money, Mr. Smerconish, I would choose this gentleman if you're trying to deliver a state because the fact is, Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, Arizona only has 11. You put those 19 in your column, that shrinks the GOP's possibilities and Donald Trump's possibilities much more than if let's say the 11 go over to the Republican side.

That's not as nearly as an impeachment as much as if Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania. It's going to be awfully difficult for Kamala Harris to win this election. Still possible, but difficult.

SMERCONISH: The folks over at 538 I know did an analysis when I asked the question of what's the value of a running mate, and their thought was about half a point in the state of the individual who you select, which might not sound like much but in a game of inches, when you look at the margin in Pennsylvania last time could be significant.

ENTEN: It could absolutely be significant. And that's really the only measurable effect that we know for VP candidates, right? You go back to 1988, Dan Quayle was probably the worst VP candidate on record although JD Vance may give him a run for his money. And of course George HW Bush won that election by eight points easily. It's really that home state effect.

[09:10:12]

You said half a point, I've seen some research that perhaps indicates it's more like two or three points, which of course, would be quite significant and state like Pennsylvania, which the last two times around were won by Trump in 2016 and of course, Biden in 2020 by between, I believe it was 0.8 points for Trump and about 1.2 points for Joe Biden. A very tight state, that is why I think Josh Shapiro is probably the best, but he's clearly very popular there and we have recent data to prove it.

SMERCONISH: Harry Enten, thank you as always.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.

SMERCONISH: Joining me now is Whit Ayres, a leading D.C. political consultant and Republican pollster. He's also the founder and president of North Star Opinion Research, a public affairs research firm. He was recently interviewed by the "Washington Post" in a piece that was titled "Why a GOP pollster is watching Harris's impact in the Midwest?"

Whit, nice to see you. Why don't we begin there? Why are you interested in particular in the Midwest?

WHIT AYRES, REPUBLICAN POLITICAL CONSULTANT & POLLSTER: It's great to be with you, Michael. We're interested in the Midwest because of what your data just showed that the upper Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania could be absolutely critical. It's interesting to see the Harris impact on this. She is doing much better than Joe Biden among non-white voters. There's a Wall Street Journal poll out this morning that showed her coming from 51 percent for Biden up to 63 percent for Harris. But does it cost the party among the white voters of the Upper Midwest where Joe Biden was still doing very well. That's one of the reasons those states were closer with Trump than the Sunbelt states. So what Harris may do is make the Sunbelt states closer, but make the upper Midwestern states more difficult for the Democrats.

SMERCONISH: What do you see when you read the tea leaves relative to gender?

AYRES: Well, the tea leaves relative to gender tell me that attacking Kamala Harris as a DEI candidate is exactly the wrong way to go about it if you're a Republican. That diminishes the accomplishments of any African American women in the country. And it's just a way to backfire if you're going after Kamala Harris. Why in the world would you do that? You have a smorgasbord of far left wing issues that Kamala Harris is on record supporting whether it's banning fracking, banning offshore oil drilling, banning private health insurance, instituting mandatory gun buybacks or decriminalizing illegal border crossings.

That's a smorgasbord that -- of issues that may play very well in San Francisco, but don't play very well in the rest of the country. And that's how Republicans need to go after.

SMERCONISH: Right. I think that watching the tone of the former president is going to be key. I take note of the fact that in a speech that he just made in Florida he spoke of her being quote, unquote, "three weeks ago perceived as a bum." And I thought to myself, how does -- the people who are in the room who are applauding that, they're already on his side, but in my neighborhood in the suburbs of Philadelphia, that's not going to work.

AYRES: You're exactly right. But what might work is talking about her far left wing positions. And in Pennsylvania, banning fracking is not going to be a particularly popular issue.

SMERCONISH: Whit, why is the number 47, or I should say 47 percent, something that you think we should all stay focused on?

AYRES: Donald Trump got 46 percent of the popular vote in 2016 when he won. He got 47 percent of the vote in 2020 when he lost. He seems to have a ceiling right around 47 percent. He never had a majority of the country who approved of his job performance when he was president. So if Donald Trump can break through that --

SMERCONISH: Oh, we lost Whit.

OK. I think what he was about to say is that 47 percent is sort of the Mendoza line for the Trump campaign, that if he can break through it, he can't be defeated, but he's got to get to it. You've heard the line before about Trump having a high floor but a low ceiling. In other words, that he's very limited in how much additional reach there might be for his voters.

The other point that I was going to make with Whit Ayers that I was going to ask him about is the third party factor, because we've spoken a great deal here in the past about third party candidates, namely Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. But in this latest polling from the Wall Street Journal, I noted that they had Bobby Kennedy coming in at only about four or so percent of the poll. And here's something interesting, do you remember all the conversations that we had in the past as to whether RFK Jr. helps or hurts Biden? Well, in that Wall Street Journal poll, can we flash that back up on the screen, Catherine (ph), that we used in the intro, the poll that showed where Biden -- pardon me where Harris and Trump stand and how Trump by two. Thank you for that.

[09:15:27]

Right. So take a look at this. And I'm doing this from memory, from reading in this morning. But I'm pretty secure in what I'm about to tell you. So, it's within the margin of error. I don't want to make too big of a deal over it, but it's Trump by too.

But when you throw Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into that mix, it reverses. And it becomes Harris by two points, which I find really interesting. And one of the things that I've learned from Doug Sosnik, among the others, it's this. When you look at the national data, always remember that in this case, Vice President Kamala Harris probably has to be up by four to four and a half, so as to indicate that she's doing what's necessary in the Electoral College. So if you see Harris tied or Harris by two, it's probably not where she needs to be based on what we saw in 2020 and based on what we saw in 2016.

Hit me up on social media. In all the usual social media places you can find me, I love reacting to some of what you have to say during the course of the program. What do we have? From the world of YouTube, why call it a coronation? People had the choice to get in but decided to back her.

Nobody put a gun to their head. Get over it, Michael. OK. So, Travel with Ravi, I guess Ravi is a travel agent. Are there still travel agents? Yes, there are.

Responding to me previously here saying that I thought what was in the best interest of the vice president of the Democratic Party and the nation was a competition. You know, let her earn it by standing on this stage and competing with the likes of Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, and Bashir and Cooper, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Therefore, there wouldn't be a perception that it had been handed to her that she had emerged victorious from this process.

And by the way, Ravi, I wasn't alone. I thought that, Carville thought that, Nate Silver thought that, many, many people thought that was the best thing. That's not where we are because nobody wanted to step in front of the freight train, that is now the Harris campaign.

Still to come, will the next eight weeks of the presidential election match the last? Could they? With only 101 days left until Election Day, what can previous presidential campaigns tell us about what's in store this November. Historian Douglas Brinkley is here to weigh in.

And as usual, I want to know what you think. Answer today's poll question at smerconish.com, who will, not should, who will Vice President Harris select his her running mate, Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, or somebody else? While you're there, sign up for my free daily newsletter for which speaking of coronation, Scott Stantis drew this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:22:38]

SMERCONISH: What can history teach us about the last 100 days of this presidential election or maybe the next 100? Joining me now is Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian Rice University professor, "New York Times" bestselling author and contributing editor at Vanity Fair. His latest piece is called "Chicago Blues. Next Up, a Make-or-Break Convention for the Democrats."

Douglas, great to see you. Does what we've just witnessed compared to anything that comes to your trained eye?

DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, HISTORY PROFESSOR, RICE UNIVERSITY: Well, it's a very speedy July, right? There's never been anything quite like this. I mean, we remember the summer when Richard Nixon had to resign and Gerald Ford got brought in and then quickly pardoned, you know, the Nixon who flew up to San Clemente. But this is different. I mean, this is right in the throes of -- like, you did that great timeline, you know, from that -- from the debate debacle per Biden all the way to this moment where Kamala Harris is searching, it's mind-bendingly interesting, and tells you that the progressive, Democratic movement was just waiting to kind of pour forward right now.

It's going to be a nail biting election.

SMERCONISH: You wrote an essay about what's to come, namely in Chicago. I'm going to put something from the Vanity Fair piece up on the screen, and I'll read it aloud. You said "If there are any flare ups against police, any mistreated American flags, Donald Trump will instantly seize the law-and-order mantra as Nixon did in his efforts to reclaim the White House come November." Talk to me about the DNC in Chicago?

BRINKLEY: Well, I think Chicago is much more secure than it was in 1968. And we also have to remember what Grant Park was, you know, right there at Lake Michigan. That was where all the hippies and Black Panthers, all the police altercations occurred in '68. We have to remember that St. Park in 2008, Barack Obama chose to be -- give us victory speech. He had 250,000 people there, not one single arrest or ticket given.

So Chicago can do security. The fear is with Gaza, Israel, as we saw with the campuses that they're starting to be American flags bid (ph) in Chicago or there is some sort of altercation between police and protesters. And you will see Trump pull a Nixon, that I'm the law and order guy, that Democrats are lawlessness and I represent order. So I think for the Democratic Party DNC, the more security the better in Chicago as long as they don't overreact the way that Mayor Daley's police did.

[09:25:20]

SMERCONISH: I want to show a picture to the audience. It is Vice President Kamala Harris recuperating from COVID. And if you look carefully, and remove that Chiron, there we go, circled, I don't know if you can see this, but your book, "American Moonshot," is on her desk. Now maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it would seem to me she's got an interest in the space program. If she's got an interest and particular interest in the space program, might she be thinking about Mark Kelly?

BRINKLEY: You know, I love that question. I think Josh Shapiro's amazing, Pritzker. But you know, Kelly of Arizona is -- it's hard to beat. He's an all American hero. I often thought that John Kerry lost the election back in 2004 when he picked -- when he picked Edwards of North Carolina and looked over John Glenn.

You know, you get -- wherever Kelly goes, Arizona, he's not just seen as a senator, he's seen as a war hero and an astronaut and somebody that's undeniably has national security clearance and has vetted and ready to go. So, I'm a big Kelly fan. But I love space. I love space exploration. you know, and I was pleased that Vice President Harrison had read "American Moonshot."

SMERCONISH: Were you aware of the fact that she was a reader of yours in that book before that picture was publicized?

BRINKLEY: No, but the -- her husband, Doug, posted that with their -- on his Twitter feed. So you know, I got a lot of emails from people when that moment happened. It is true. That was when she had COVID. And now, this past week, Biden had COVID.

She loves space, loves NASA. Ever since Lyndon Johnson was vice president of Kennedy, it's been a role vice presidents tend to pay, you know, attention to. So, she was boning up on how Kennedy did it. In course, you can never go wrong with John F. Kennedy's speech at my university, September 12 1962. Why do we go, you know, into space?

Why do we go to the moon? Because it's a challenge. And we're now looking to send women astronauts back to the moon. We're doing Mars exploration. And of course, we live in a satellite culture.

This past week, Japan is trying to do explorations with -- on the moon. So, it's a field that everybody loves in our universities. They're very stem driven. And I've been teaching for a long time, Michael, and they loved hearing about the heyday of NASA in the 1960s with Mercury, Gemini --

SMERCONISH: And we all do.

BRINKLEY: -- and Apollo.

SMERCONISH: We all do. Yes. Smithsonian love going to Aaron space.

Thank you, Douglas. Nice to see you. We appreciate you.

BRINKLEY: Thank you. SMERCONISH: More social media reaction. From the world of YouTube. Yes, I have a YouTube channel. I'll bet Trump wishes he chose a woman for VP.

You know, Eric, some speculate that with JD Vance, having defend the comments that he made a couple of years ago, said he was sarcastic when asked about it yesterday about childless cat ladies, some have wondered whether if the events had occurred differently. You know, what do you have tried to woo to the extent that she needed to be wooed Nikki Haley? I don't know. But I think he hangs with Vance. I don't put any stock in some of the speculation that he's going to change horses.

I want to remind everybody, answer today's poll question. It's not about the Republican selection of vice president, it's about the selection that Vice President Harris now needs to make. Who will she take? I'm not asking who should? I'm asking you to be predictive. Is it going to be Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, maybe somebody else maybe, somebody like Admiral James Stavridis. Think about that.

Still to come, more of your social -- did I just float like a trial balloon? The admiral might be upset with me for doing so.

Coming up, more of your reaction. And later, nearly a dozen potential VP candidates are said to be in the midst of getting vetted to options are making waves across social media and opinions. Who will be the last standing at the Democratic Convention? Make sure you're signing up for my newsletter when you're voting. Steve Breen drew this for us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:34:16]

SMERCONISH: You can find me on all the usual social media platforms. Here are some of your reactions.

Josh Shapiro because she has to have Pennsylvania and Shapiro will demolish JD Cat Lady in a debate.

I think that Josh Shapiro is a smart pick up of a Pennsylvanian. I think he's a good guy and a straight shooter. We're going to talk about him in a moment.

My question is, if you're being very practical and looking at the map who can close the gap necessary better, Shapiro in Pennsylvania or Kelly in Arizona? The margin for Trump has been larger in Arizona than it has been in Pennsylvania. And I think we need the dust settle to evaluate the polls.

Relative to eating Vance's lunch, I think Vance is good on a debate stage. And I think that Shapiro -- I think it'll be a hell of a match.

[09:35:03]

That's a debate I would pay to see. What else came in in terms of social media reaction to today's program?

I thought you didn't want coronation of Kamala Harris. Now, you have fallen in line. Did you get marching orders from CNN?

Call Me Joe, what the hell are you talking about? I said last week and have been consistent, remember me, the guy who told you three weeks ago it wasn't a question of whether Biden was going to step aside, but when he would do so.

And additionally, from the get-go, I said, and if it happens, as I predict it will, there ought to be a mini primary. We weren't then using the words blitz primary, but no, I think that that was in the best interest of not only Harris and the Ds but also the nation. You know, let her get as they put it in a pre-season parlous, some touches in, a little pre-season action before all of a sudden you get to the big game.

Next, I've got time for one more. I think.

Dems were desperate to find a viable candidate so they talk themselves into elation over Kamala Harris. The giddiness and elation will erode once her ultra liberal policies and unimpressive V.P. status become clear to voters. Carville was correct in saying be cautious.

I'm going to wait for the dust to settle. I'm not here to tell you how it all plays out. She's got a record she's going to have to defend. And that record, I think, is going to be presented as and based on fact as a very progressive record.

Can that be sold in middle America and in the states that we've been discussing? That remains to be seen, but it's too soon to know. We have a horse race on our hands. That's all you can say with confidence.

Remember, I want to know, go to the Web site at Smerconish.com, who is she going to pick? Who will be the selection? Beshear, Cooper, Kelly, Shapiro, or somebody we're not even discussing?

Up ahead, speaking of which the race to secure the Democratic V.P. slot on full display with the Harris campaign promising to make a selection by August 7. That's 11 days away. Who is it going to be? Let's talk about Mark Kelly. Let's talk about Josh Shapiro.

I have two local journalists who covered both extensively. And we'll get their insights next. Make sure you're signing up for the daily newsletter. Jack Ohman sketched for us this week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:41:48]

SMERCONISH: As this unprecedented cycle heats up, the Harris team said to be vetting about a dozen possible vice presidential candidates. Two names appear to be rapidly rising and likely to fill the number two spot. Senator Mark Kelly from the great state of Arizona. And Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro from the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Both preside over essential swing states for Democrats. They're considered to be well-liked among their constituents.

The Harris campaign pledging to select a vice presidential candidate by August 7. That's 11 days away. Here to discuss, is Arizona's KPNX- TV political reporter and anchor, Brahm Resnik, and "Spotlight PA" investigative reporter Angela Couloumbis.

So, Brahm, I know that he's got this central casting resume. How is he on his feet?

BRAHM RESNIK, POLITICAL REPORTER AND ANCHOR, KPNX-TV ARIZONA: How is he on his feet? You might be asking the debate question. I'd say that might be the weakest part of his game. If he's on his feet, he can answer questions from reporters in a scrum. That's fine. If you're going to put Mark Kelly in a debate against someone like a J.D. Vance, he will do a solid job and not more than that. He's not a prosecutor.

Coincidentally, you know, back in 2022, he won his U.S. Senate race against Blake Masters, who like Vance is a Peter Thiel acolyte, heavily financed by Peter Thiel. And Mark Kelly held his own, held his own. If you've watched the debate, you might say, which one's the Republican here? Because he's pretty moderate for a Democrat, but that's how you win Arizona.

SMERCONISH: Angela, every four years, the nation gets a lesson on the Philly burbs. Well, this time potentially there could be a candidate born, raised, and residing in those Philly burbs, Josh Shapiro.

ANGELA COULOUMBIS, INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER, SPOTLIGHT PA: Yes. So, Josh Shapiro has grown up in Pennsylvania. He's been in politics in Pennsylvania for 20 years. He's got huge name recognition.

He was a state legislator. He was a -- the state's attorney general. And now, obviously, the governor for the last year-and-a-half.

He does very, very well in the vote rich Pennsylvania -- Philadelphia suburbs. He's from there. They truly like him. And he has appeal not just with Democrats but he also has appeal in that vote rich area with moderate Republicans. And that is a big constituency. And if you can get it in Pennsylvania and if you can win that area, you win the state.

SMERCONISH: So, I happen to think that Vice President Kamala Harris needs a Sister Souljah moment. And it occurs to me that with regard to both of these candidates and, Brahm, I'll start with you, she gets that insofar as Mark Kelly has a border posture different from hers. Do you agree with me that his stance relative to the border is an asset not a liability?

RESNIK: That might be his greatest asset in this case. You know his biography, which is just golden. Mark Kelly's wife, Gabby Giffords, national figures in a lot of ways, but Kamala Harris' and the Biden administration's weakness on the border is something he could shore up.

[09:45:05]

It's funny before the interviewer I was going back to 2022, looking at some of the coverage, and recall -- he called President Biden dumb for ending Title 42.

He wasn't alone, so did our other senator Kyrsten Sinema, but they stood up to that, and stood with Republicans, and he's not afraid to do that. He is in a regular contact with Republican communities down by the border, Republican and Democratic. He gets the border in a way that I don't believe the Biden administration ever has. And that's going to be a big issue here.

And it's also a big issue across the country now, right, in the northeast, Midwest, as well as Arizona. Immigration is one of the top three issues and she desperately needs that kind of help.

SMERCONISH: OK. And, Angela, relative to Josh Shapiro, I know -- and what I'm here to argue that I think that as Kamala Harris has portrayed as being very far to the left, it would help her to have a running mate who is seen less so. And in Josh's case, might school choice give him some means of saying, hey, I'm not as progressive as she is?

COULOUMBIS: Oh, absolutely. First off, he is a moderate Democrat from a must-win swing state, right? And he has been able, during his time in public office, to forge relationships with both the business community and other Republican leaning type factions. And one of the ways that he has garnered some support among Republicans is his position on school choice. He supported a voucher -- school voucher program in his first term and in his first year, a little less so this year.

It's been a bit of a double-edged sword for him. While it has drawn some support from Republicans, it has also alienated some traditional support from Democratic factions particularly those that are very pro- public-school factions. So, that remains to be seen how it's going to play for him and as potentially him on the presidential ticket.

SMERCONISH: Brahm, such a game of inches, not only in the presidential race, but also in the U.S. Senate that I've heard some say, well, what would happen to that Kelly seat if he were to be the running mate and win? Can you give me 30 seconds on that?

RESNIK: Well, the governor, our Democratic governor, would appoint a replacement for Mark Kelly and that person would serve until 2026. That means there would be a midterm election for the U.S. Senate in Arizona. Midterms is not -- historically not great for Democrats. They were pretty good in 2022, but Democrats get some good Democratic candidates running up against some pretty weak Republicans.

So that's making some Democrats nervous right now. And I do want to let folks know, you know, we're often thought of as a purple state. We just got some new registration numbers last night. So, talking about whether Mark Kelly can deliver a swing state. During the Biden years, Democrat -- Democratic registration has lost three points of market share if you look at it that way. Democrats trail Republicans by two -- by 200,000 -- 250,000, independence by 200,000 in a registration. That's a pretty big hill to climb for anybody during a presidential election year, let alone a midterm election year in two years.

So, a lot of people on the one hand might be excited about Mark Kelly perhaps getting the V.P. nod. On the other hand, if you're a Democrat, you're a little bit worried about what happens in 2026 and whether he can hold on to the seat.

Angela Couloumbis, I'm limited on time. Twenty years ago, you first met Josh Shapiro as a freshman state legislator. First impression?

COULOUMBIS: Oh, I mean, he was -- within a couple of years of taking office he was considered a rising star in the Democratic Party. If you've seen him speak, he is smooth, he's polished, he's good on his feet, and that has only gotten stronger as he has gotten more experienced.

SMERCONISH: Thank you both. I really appreciate your insight. We'll see. We'll find out soon. I appreciate each of you.

Checking in now your social media comments. What do we have relative to this issue?

I hope Harris team realizes that Shapiro would cost her Michigan because of Israel.

Really? Are we that simplistic. Oh, he's Jewish. I guess we're going to now lose Michigan? I don't think so. I don't buy into that logic. But I'll read on.

And Kelly could cost a seat in the Senate. Bashear is the best running mate, but does he deliver Kentucky? He knows how to talk to rural voters and can make inroads in his jobs' creation record.

Look, Jack, maybe you're right. I don't know. We'll see. I'm giving you four choices. And you still have time to vote at Smerconish.com right now.

[09:50:02]

Here it is. Who will Vice President Harris select as her running mate? I'm giving you Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, and the all-encompassing other in case you're thinking of somebody else.

While you're voting, subscribe to my free and daily newsletter. What will you receive? You'll get editorial cartoons like this from Rob Rogers.

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[09:55:06]

SMERCONISH: All right. Let's see. Where are we? Wow, pretty decisive, huh?

Who will Vice President Harris select as her V.P.? A lot of voting, 35,000. Shapiro 46, and Kelly 39, and a lot of distance to the others.

Quickly. Social media reaction, what do we have? Keep voting if you haven't voted already. I'll leave it up there.

Michael, I think she will go outside the box and choose a woman as V.P. Think of that, an all-female ticket.

So, OK, John, but you didn't tell me who. Gretchen Whitmer? Amy Klobuchar? Can you break that many glass ceilings at once? I don't know. It remains to be seen.

But I don't underestimate that, you know, there's a bit of a shell game going on here and that were all focused on Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly. And maybe there's somebody who's not on our radar right now who's going to emerge. In this climate, going back to where I began, it's possible.

Enjoy your week. See you.

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