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Pennsylvania Could Once Again Decide The Election; More Than 1 In 5 U.S. Adults Live With Mental Illness; Liz Cheney Says Dick Cheney Is Voting For Harris; Harris, Trump Prepare To Face Off For The First Time. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired September 07, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SHAREEF MOSBY, FASHION DESIGNER: She's helped me to be more confident, and it kind of like dig deep and to kind of explain my history, having some highest in my corner from like a fashion perspective, and somebody that believes in the vision that's been there, you know, that's huge for me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Well, for more on Sharif and his pop ups next week, check out his brand, VICTIM15. And for more on the other designers, you can visitchangeoffashion.com.

Now, if you see something I should see, tell me. I'm at Victor Blackwell on socials, Instagram, X and Tiktok.

Thank you for joining me today. I'll see you back here next Saturday at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Smerconish is up next.

[09:00:37]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: We might not know. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

The final day of voting is 59 days away. That used to mean we'd be that many days and a couple of hours away from figuring out who would be the next president, but maybe not this year for at least two reasons. First, by all accounts, the race is razor thin. New CNN polling of six battleground states shows a dead heat, while Harris has the edge in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has the advantage in Arizona. There's no clear leader in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

Overall, too close to call. And it's not just CNN, a variety of other respected pollsters have similar results. The Real Clear Politics Average for Pennsylvania as of yesterday, Trump, 47.2, Harris, 47.2. "The Washington Post" just by illustration of another measure, Nevada is a tie North Carolina and Arizona, it's Trump by less than one, Georgia, Trump plus two, Michigan, Harris plus two, Pennsylvania, Harris plus three, Wisconsin Harris plus four.

Curiously, you've got polling guru Nate Silver saying that Donald Trump today has a 61.5 percent chance of winning the election to Kamala Harris's 38.3 and that's the highest Trump has been since July 30. One betting market seems to agree. Polymarket says there's a 53 percent likelihood that Trump wins, although predict it gives Harris 53 percent odds. Here's one thing about which all observers agree. The most important state is Pennsylvania.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-PA): We're enjoying our moment in the sun. It's been a few cycles now though, that Pennsylvania really has been the keystone --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

BOYLE: -- to whether or not you're going to make it to the White House.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Talk to Democrats, they've always made clear the most likely pathway for them is in the blue wall state. We're talking about Pennsylvania.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The door to the White House really runs through Pennsylvania. You're going to have to open this door, win this state in order to win the presidency for the next four years.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The map has expanded a little bit more, but we're still playing offense in blue states. I think Pennsylvania is going to be the state that matters the most.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: You can tell the candidates get the importance of the keystone state by how they're spending their time and their money. Since the primaries on Super Tuesday back in March, the seven key swing states have seen nearly 590 million in political ad spending. Pennsylvania, the largest prize in the race, far ahead of the rest with over 188.8 million already spent and another 145 million set to air. And just look at how much time they're spending in Pennsylvania. Harris's latest trip to Pennsylvania to prepare for the debate marks her 10th visit this year, while Trump has campaigned here nine times. So, the race is close and Pennsylvania matters most.

Here's the potential problem, and the second reason, we might not immediately know the winner. As the Philadelphia Inquirer noted this week, "Election officials in Pennsylvania are warning that because of inaction in Harrisburg, the swing states, votes may again take days to count, creating a window for bad actors to sow distrust in the results. County election officials have been petitioning state lawmakers to update the state's election code for years. They've also persistently asked the General Assembly to clarify questions surrounding which mail ballots can and cannot be counted to address voting rights litigation that has played out in Pennsylvania since November -- since no excuse, mail voting was authorized in 2019. But as November approaches, little has changed since 2020 when former President Donald Trump used the slow counting process to promote unfounded claims of voter fraud in the wake of his defeat."

Back in 2020, it wasn't until the Saturday after the election that CNN was finally able to make the call. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: After four long, tense days, we've reached a historic moment in this election. We can now project the winner. CNN projects Joseph R. Biden Jr. is elected the 46th President of the United States, winning the White House and denying President Trump a second term. We're able to make this projection because CNN projects Biden wins Pennsylvania, the former vice president in his third run for the highest office, pulling off a rare defeat of a sitting commander in chief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[09:05:04]

SMERCONISH: So could this year be even later? Do you remember the red mirage and the blue wave? That was a reference to Republicans showing artificial advantage as in person votes were counted only to see the margin change when mail-in ballots favored by Democrats were tabulated. Trump nevertheless used the red mirage to claim victory. The day after voting ended, he tweeted that people were, quote, "working hard to make his 500,000 vote advantage in Pennsylvania disappear."

Nearly five hours later, he tweeted again, "We have claimed for electoral purposes the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania." Well, Pennsylvania was and remains one of seven states that does not allow pre canvassing of ballots until Election Day, and as the Inquirer noted, this creates a strain on resources, which delays the final results. And other litigation is ongoing. There are issues over whether counties should count mail-in ballots sent without secrecy envelopes or whether counties should notify voters if their mail-in ballots are at risk of rejection because of a mistake in filling out the forms. And in a third case, the state's Commonwealth Court ruled that not counting votes because someone failed to put a proper date on the exterior of their mail-in envelope which arrived on time is in violation of Pennsylvania's free and equal elections clause.

And more challenges will surely arise, as Steve Ulrich, an editor at politics P.A. and an election official in York County during the 2020 election told me, If Pennsylvania is as close as it's been in the last two, anything will be fair game. It could all create the perfect storm. One candidate again complaining of a fix while ballots are still being counted in the normal course of events while being egged on by some elements of a partisan media. And that's only the domestic story.

Earlier this week, the DOJ accused two Russian employees of RT, the Russian owned media outlet, of working with the Tennessee company to distribute its content to American influencers. And in July, Avril, Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, issued a warning that Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive in their foreign influence efforts seeking to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions. It's enough to keep you up for the next 58 nights. I want to know what you think. Go to my website at merchandish.com. Answer today's poll question, will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power?

Joining me now is Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth, Al Schmidt, who, during the 2020 election, was Republican Philadelphia City Commissioner.

Secretary Schmidt, nice to have you back. What is at the root of this? Why doesn't Pennsylvania begin the processing of received ballots before Election Day?

AL SCHMIDT, (R) PENNSYLVANIA SECRETARY OF THE COMMONWEALTH: State law in Pennsylvania doesn't permit our county election officials to begin processing those mail-in ballots until 7:00 a.m. on election morning. So plenty of other states, red and blue, alike allow that process to begin days, if not weeks, in advance, so you know the results earlier. Pennsylvania, we don't have that. It's a technical problem with the technical solution that has not been addressed since 2020.

SMERCONISH: It might be technical, but is it deliberate, right? I mean, in light of 2020 you think that the Commonwealth, the legislature would have addressed this, they haven't. Do you think there's a deliberate effort here to allow this process to play out so that some can so discord and spread disinformation?

SCHMIDT: Mail-in ballot pre-processing has been a part of a number of pieces of legislation coming out of our Democratic House or and our Republican Senate. It's just it's typically coupled with any number of other election changes that are not acceptable to the other party. Our Democratic House recently, just a couple months ago, passed a clean pre-canvassing, pre-processing bill that if the Republican Senate took it up, or had taken it up, would alleviate this issue.

SMERCONISH: So, I wanted to talk about this today, well in advance of the election, so as to put on people's radar screen all across the country that the prospect exists that we might not know the winner of Pennsylvania on election night, we might not therefore know the winner of the election on election night. But that's OK. It's in the normal course of business. You, of all people, remember well what happened four years ago. I'm going to put on the screen something that then President Trump said about you via Twitter, "A guy named Al Schmidt," that would be you, "a Philadelphia Commissioner and so-called Republican RINO is being used big time by the fake news media to explain how honest things were with respect to the election in Philadelphia.

He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption and dishonesty. We win." How worried are you that he'll do it again? And what is being done to prevent it?

SCHMIDT: Well, we work very closely with our county partners. Elections in Pennsylvania are really run at the county level and then they certify the results up to the Pennsylvania Department of State. So we're working hand in hand with them to make sure that this process can proceed as expeditiously as possible while maintaining the integrity of it all.

[09:10:16]

Counting millions of votes takes time. It has always taken time. It's just different in Pennsylvania, because that process can't begin earlier like it can in other states.

SMERCONISH: How concerned are you? You heard my setup, I'm a lifelong Pennsylvania, I'm worried about what's to come. Are you?

SCHMIDT: Well, I've been involved in election administration for a long time, and anyone involved in election administration worries about everything. There are no redos, there are no do overs when it comes to elections. They always have to be perfect. And it's important that we do our part in election administration, and really, you know, hopeful that people on the outside, candidates and campaigns, are respectful and responsible in the information that they share and not so distrust in an effort to undermine confidence in the results.

SMERCONISH: What's the prospect that in the next 59 days pre- canvassing the rules that apply will be changed by the legislature and alleviating some of the concerns that you and I are discussing?

SCHMIDT: I can't really predict that, but what I do know is that it's very rare that you have changes to the election code in our state or any other very close to Election Day, because people get the impression it's being done to try to advantage one party or candidate or the other, when, in this case, it's really not.

SMERCONISH: OK. So final question, we're two months out in your capacity as secretary of the Commonwealth, what's the message, if any, that you'd like to deliver to the nation about the way Pennsylvania counts its ballots? What should we file away so that on that election night in 59 days, we remember that we heard Al Schmidt.

SCHMIDT: I think it's important that everyone be mindful of what you've discussed, that our state is a little bit different than many others. And voting by mail, which is still new to Pennsylvania, is a very -- it's been very widely accepted. It's a great method for people who especially find it difficult to make it to the polls in these 13 hours on Election Day. That people be patient and that we understand that our election workers at the county level are working night and day, literally around the clock, to cast -- to count your votes so that you can have your voice heard.

SMERCONISH: OK. And the way that I would say it is that if it's late on election night and you're looking at Wolf or you're looking at John King in front of the magic wall, and they're saying, we can't call Pennsylvania, relax. It's perhaps within the normal course of events.

Secretary of the Commonwealth, Al Schmidt, thank you for being here. Appreciate you.

SCHMIDT: Thank you, Michael.

SMERCONISH: What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media. I will read some responses throughout the course of the program. From the world of X, in both cases, I think the transition will be peaceful at the White House, but definitely not on the streets.

Alice Van K, I hope you're wrong. I asked this question today, but of course, you know, fingers crossed and God willing that it all goes smoothly. And one way that I think we can all, especially those of us who have a platform, ensure that it goes smoothly, is to educate the public and say this is the way that we count the ballots. It may sound a little bit arcane. We wish that it was different, especially in my home state, and that there was pre-canvassing in this and six other states, but everybody just relax when we get there.

I want to know what you think at home. Go to my website at smerconish.com, answer today's poll question, will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power?

Still to come, a deadly mass shooting inside a Georgia High School sparks new conversations about the impact of gun violence and mental health. New reporting suggests finding help could be trickier than you think. We explore why Americans are having a hard time finding a therapist. And don't forget to sign up for my free and worthy daily newsletter at smerconish.com check out what Scott Stantis drew for us yesterday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:18:36]

SMERCONISH: A 14-year-old suspected of gunning down and killing two of his classmates and two teachers at a Georgia school, according to database kept by Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University, the shooting was the nation's 30th mass shooting in 2024. At least 131 people have died in such violence, and gun violence is the leading cause of death in our children. Every time these events occur, they spur an important conversation about mental health. This time, is no different that the country is in the midst of a mental health crisis is borne out in the data. In June, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued an advisory saying, gun violence demands a public health approach, rather than a polarizing political response.

This is a uniquely American problem that kills nearly 50,000 people a year. Well, there's something else uniquely American about it, within one in five U.S. adults live with mental illness, but only about half actually receive treatment. And one reason is that labyrinth, that is our health care system, with insurance companies often restricting coverage, delaying treatment and denying claims, especially among those for brain health.

A recent investigation by NPR and ProPublica talked to hundreds of mental health practitioners and found that many say they've been forced to leave insurance networks with devastating consequences for their patients who cannot afford to pay privately. Joining me now to discuss is ProPublica Reporter Annie Waldman.

Annie, thank you for being here. After interviewing hundreds of practitioners, what did you learn? Why do so many mental health providers not accept insurance?

[09:20:09]

ANNIE WALDMAN, PROPUBLICA REPORTER: Yes, so thanks for having me on, Michael.

And the most simple terms, we really wanted to understand why is it that when you have insurance it can be so hard to access mental health treatment. And what most people don't realize is that insurance companies play a really big role in this. After interviewing hundreds of therapists across the country, they told us it's really unsustainable and challenging to work with insurance companies. They described that the insurance companies have taken on an outsized role in mental health care in this country, and it's often the insurance companies and not the therapists, that determine who can get treatment, what kind of treatment they can get and for how long. Providers also told us about red tape dealing with insurance companies, delayed and low payments, audits and reviews, and that's really what's contributing to squeezing them out.

SMERCONISH: So these are not complaints that you would hear from an oncologist? If we were talking about a cancer patient and whether they need chemotherapy, I imagine the bill gets submitted and it gets paid. Why are we still not treating physical, and what I'll describe as brain health, the same?

WALDMAN: Yes, that's right, mental health care has long been neglected by our health system. You know, federal law actually requires insurance companies to provide the same access to mental health care and physical health care, but we heard numerous stories from patients and providers about how mental health care was scaled back in ways that medical care may not be, while you might be able to get access to chemotherapy if you have cancer. You know what we found with mental health care, we heard stories of patients in the midst of a mental health crisis who needed intensive treatment, but the insurance company would only approve coverage for less intensive treatment first. And our reporting found that the limitations can lead to devastating consequences.

SMERCONISH: Annie, what do the insurance companies have to say for themselves?

WALDMAN: Yes. So we reached out to several insurance companies for our reporting, and they told us that they are committed to ensuring access to mental health providers. They emphasize that their plans are in compliance with state and federal laws, and they also said that they have practices in place to make reimbursement rates reflect the market value, to support and retain providers for which they're continuously trying to recruit. But that doesn't match up with what we heard from therapists or previous analyzes have been done by policy experts or advocates. You know, what -- the bottom line is that there have been several lawsuits against insurers for failing to provide adequate coverage.

State regulators and the Department of Labor are starting to do more in recent years in terms of holding insurers accountable, but these issues continue to be a problem.

SMERCONISH: I don't understand, we have just 30 seconds left, I don't understand why there's not a champion for this issue, Republican, Independent, Democrat, who cares, who says we're in the midst of a mental health crisis, and we've got all of these treaters who feel like they can't provide care for their patients because of what I described as the labyrinth of the health care system. We have a debate on Tuesday night. I doubt anybody is going to say to Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, hey, what can we do for the half of those afflicted with mental illness who are not getting treatment because of the issue that you at ProPublica and NPR have identified? Your quick thought.

WALDMAN: Well, mental health care is not a partisan issue. And part of changing this conversation on mental health care is sharing and documenting these kinds of stories and experiences and shining a light on these complex issues.

SMERCONISH: OK. Nice job with the reporting. I encourage everybody to read what you published. Thank you.

WALDMAN: Thanks for having me.

SMERCONISH: Let's see what you're saying via social media. This comes from the world of X formerly Twitter. If this is about mental health and gun violence, the real issue is guns, not a lack of mental health insurance.

Really, David Conti? You think that -- you think that a 14-year-old -- I'm not excusing anything, OK, I'm just analyzing, you think that a 14-year-old who walks into school and kills two classmates and two teachers is well from a mental health standpoint? You must be blanking me.

Up ahead, a new debate showdown. We're just three days away from former President Donald Trump facing off against Vice President Kamala Harris for the very first time. I'll talk to a Trump surrogate about what we can expect to see from the Republican candidate, and ask what the campaign thinks about a major Harris endorsement from a former Republican bigwig.

Plus, Donald Trump will not face sentencing in his New York hush money case until after the election. Will this help his chances of winning? I want to remind you, go to my website at smerconish.com, answer today's poll question, will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power? While you're there, sign up for the newsletter. You'll love it.

It's free. Check out what Steve Breen just drew for us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:29:34]

SMERCONISH: A former vice president of the United States is voting for Kamala Harris, warning that former President Trump can never be trusted with power again. And no, it's not Al Gore or another Democrat, it's Republican Dick Cheney. His daughter Liz Cheney, the former Republican congresswoman who famously broke with Trump over January 6, had already announced that she too would be voting for Harris.

Joining me now is Republican Congressman Byron Donalds of the great state of Florida. He's also a surrogate for the Trump campaign.

[09:30:00]

Congressman, thank you for coming back. You know about this Cheney announcement? Here's, in part, what he said, quote, "In our nation's 248 year history, there's never been an individual who is a greater threat to our Republic than Donald Trump." What would you say to Vice President Cheney in response to that?

REP. BYRON DONALDS (R-FL): My first response is I really don't care what he thinks. Secondarily, if you look at the way Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have led the current administration, they suppressed the free speech of the American people. It was the Biden campaign that lied to the world during the last presidential election, using the intelligence agencies and 51 intelligence officers to lie about the laptop from hell. That's something the Biden campaign did. They lied about the all the impacts using the COVID-19 vaccine. They tried to use OSHA to mandate 80 million Americans getting that vaccine.

They fired over 10,000 soldiers from our military over the same situation. And right now we have a situation where Kamala Harris has lied to the world about the health and mental capabilities of Joe Biden. So you put all that together and then you have this statement from Dick Cheney.

I'm -- look at what's actually been happening with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and the threat they are to democracy, not what Dick Cheney saying.

SMERCONISH: Common ground, among other things, you and I agree that laptop should never have been suppressed. I'm sure there's more that we agree on, but still, he's kind of a conservative icon. You're a conservative guy. You must have a response to what he said on the merits?

DONALDS: Look, I will tell you, I became a Republican back in 2010. That's when I changed my party registration. It was not because of the Republican establishment at the time led by Dick Cheney. It was about the conservative constitutional movement, wanting our country to live within its means, wanting our country to actually follow the rule of law and wanting our country not to be embroiled in countless endless wars. That's why I became a Republican.

I'm a Republican who's looking towards the future of our party, not the past of our party. So I respect Dick Cheney and his service throughout all of the decades to America, but quite frankly, he's wrong about this. Donald Trump is the person we need to be president of the United States today going forward.

SMERCONISH: Congressman, Tuesday night is a big night. The question that I have, I have a question about the Vice President, and that is whether she can explain exactly where she stands on a whole variety of issues that are a question mark to me. The question that I have for your guy is whether he can exercise any self-discipline.

And here's what comes to my mind. Yesterday, a jobs report, awfully soft, 142,000 jobs comes out. And in part, here's what he was discussing.

Roll the tape.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Frankly, I know you're going to say it's a terrible thing to say, but it couldn't have happened. It didn't happen. And she would not have been the chosen one. She would not have been the chosen one. She has gone around for years saying the story. Everywhere I go, she says this story. And it's a total lie. Now, I assume she'll sue me now for defamation, like I got sued by E. Jean Carroll.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMERCONISH: It's like political malpractice, day after day. He just can't stay on his economic message. What makes you think that he will on Tuesday night?

DONALDS: Well, two things. First of all, I would say that if you've actually listened to everything that Donald Trump says, he mostly talks about the economy, what he's going to do to repair it from the damage of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, border security and foreign policy. But unlike a scripted politician like Kamala Harris, he talks about all issues. He talks about everything that's going on in the world, not just the talking points out of the campaign. He has been on message. It's just that the press only likes to talk about when he talks about other issues outside of the core things.

In the debate, you're going to see the same Donald Trump that you saw a couple of months ago in Georgia with Joe Biden. He's going to be calm, cool and collected. He's going to set up the contrast between the disastrous administration of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and how the world was safer, our economy was better and our nation was secured under Donald Trump. You're going to see it again on Tuesday night.

And I will add that who has a lot to prove in this debate is Kamala Harris, not Donald Trump. So she's got a lot to prove because nobody really knows what she stands for.

SMERCONISH: Give me the 60 second answer as to why she has so easily been able to eclipse President Biden, because I didn't see this coming. I looked at her numbers as being as underwater as Biden's. And if you had told me two months ago that she would replace him and catapult to where she is today, I wouldn't have believed it. So how has she been able to get that done?

[09:35:02] DONALDS: Well, first of all, if the Democrat billionaires are going to are going to drop almost a billion dollars in over 60 -- over 60 days, if the press never gets a chance to ask her serious questions because she hides from the media, and then if everybody treats her as if she's a Hollywood starlet as opposed to a serious candidate for the president of the United States, your poll numbers are going to rise. It would happen to anybody in modern politics.

But Kamala Harris has been hiding from the press. She's been hiding from scrutiny because if you look at her record and if you look at what she has supported throughout her entire political life, it is radical, it is dangerous, it is not the recipe for success in the United States of America.

Tuesday night's debate might be the only opportunity for the American people to see who the real Kamala Harris is because she's been hiding from everybody.

SMERCONISH: As I said, my question is, is she going to provide some definition to her views? And my question about your guy is, can he exercise self-control? We'll watch Tuesday night.

Thank you, Congressman. Appreciate you coming back.

DONALDS: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media. I'll continue to read some throughout the course of the program.

"The debate will have little to no effect on the polls. The candidates will continue their rhetoric, pandering to their base, a waste of time since the majority of Americans do not identify to either party. These polls will prove to be inaccurate come November."

So, Andrew, if that had been your tweet right before the Trump and Biden debate, I would have said, well, he's right. But then came Trump and Biden debate. So we'll see.

Up ahead, former Senior Political Adviser to President Obama David Axelrod is here. The first ballots of the 2024 election were supposed to be mailed out yesterday in North Carolina. That didn't happen. We'll tell you why and how it could impact the number of votes that go toward Trump and Harris.

Don't forget to vote on today's poll question. It's smerconish.com. Will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power? While you're there, sign up for the newsletter.

Jack Ohman just sketched for us that cartoon.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:41:35]

SMERCONISH: Judgment day for Donald Trump and his criminal New York hush money cover-up case has once again been delayed. Judge Juan Merchan explained in a letter that his decision to push the November 26th after election day is in part to avoid any appearance of affecting the outcome of the presidential race.

Join me now, CNN Senior Political Commentator, former Senior Advisor to President Obama, David Axelrod.

Ax, great to see you as always. I want to play what Karl Rove had to say about this yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARL ROVE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: If he had gone forward with this, it would have, ironically enough, served the interest of Donald Trump. Donald Trump has risen in the polls. The more that people have reacted negatively to his treatment in the courtroom, and if the judge had gone ahead with this, it could have easily been the October surprise.

That is to say, he would have potentially gone after Donald Trump in his verdict, and the reaction of the American people might have been wholly negative on it and helped advance the cause of Donald Trump in the election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Sounds like a strange question to ask, but politically speaking, would Trump have been better served had he been sentenced?

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I guess my answer to you is, if he thought he would have been better off, would they have fought so hard to push the sentence off? I can only judge by what they did. And look, I think if you, you know, part of it depends on what the sentence would have been. If the sentence was probation or something that was viewed as relatively lenient, I'm not sure that it would have helped him.

But in any case, I don't think they want all of this center stage right now. And I think as a survival strategy, Trump's hope is to push this all off until after the election when imposing any kind of sentence on him or going forward with any of the trials that are pending would be impossible.

SMERCONISH: David, here's a headline for you. Kennedy wins two states, Michigan and North Carolina, meaning he's been successful in getting removed from the ballot. Of what significance, if any?

AXELROD: Look, I think that this is a very close race and nobody should make any mistake about this. This is going to go right down to the wire and these battleground states are going to go right down to the wire. And anything that makes a marginal difference in the outcome is significant.

You know, I think that Kennedy, once Kamala Harris became the candidate, I think much of his Democratic support melted away. And what was left was sort of hardcore anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theory buffs and so on, who are more likely, if they vote, to gravitate to Donald Trump than Kamala Harris. So Kennedy's name on the ballot, on balance, probably helps Harris

more than Trump, because I think he'd take a few more Trump voters. Whether it'll be determinative, I can't say.

SMERCONISH: Tuesday night is a huge night. Tell me what you're looking for in each. I've already said on this program, relative to Trump, I want to see if he has any impulse control in relative to Harris.

And I'm not alone. "Axios," in fact, put the headline up on the screen. "Axios" had a report yesterday talking about how thus far she's been able to dodge scrutiny and they listed nine issues, everything from decriminalizing border crossings to straws, where she either doesn't have a position they recognize or has switched. How do you see Tuesday?

[09:45:12]

AXELROD: Well, look, I agree with your analysis. You know, with Trump, everybody's strength is their weakness. He's an improv artist, sometimes an obscene improv artist, but nonetheless an improv artist. I don't think he's going to be any different on that stage than he has been the six other times that he's been on a debate stage.

And remember, he is -- except perhaps a little less disciplined. He has been on that stage. He will be this -- this will be the seventh time, Michael. No -- no one else in history has participated in more presidential debates.

But, you know, Trump has been off his game, I think, since Harris got in the race. He thought the race was won. He thought he had Biden beaten. She came in the race. And she is what he most fears, someone who looks and sounds good on TV, big crowds. She's raising a lot of money. And he has been acting out since she got into the race.

And the question is, is that what he will do on the stage? And does she use that to her advantage and use his negative energy in a kind of jujitsu and says to the country, is this what you want?

Now, in terms of Harris, there's no doubt that she has been doing a lot of scripted events since she got into the race. And she hasn't done many media interactions, other than the big interview with Dana Bash on this network. And she's going to have to do more.

But this is the biggest test. This is the biggest event, planned event that we know of for the rest of the race. And she is going to be scrutinized here, and she's going to have to be prepared for that.

I do think from this point forward, she's going to have to do more media as well, not for the benefit of journalists, but because the public wants to see you untethered from scripts.

SMERCONISH: It's going to be a huge night. I know we say that about every election, most important election of our lifetime, huge debate, biggest debate ever. But this time we mean it.

AXELROD: Yeah, we do. We do. I think this -- you know, I think, as I said, this race is tight as a tick. And there's a lot that -- you know, Kamala Harris can pick up a lot of ground here if she continues to introduce herself to the American people and talk about the future and answer some of the questions that you raised.

But I think it's most important for her to focus on where she wants to lead the country. I don't think a majority of Americans want to vote for Donald Trump. They want to know if she's an acceptable alternative. This is the biggest opportunity she'll have to answer those questions and create the contrast that I think ultimately may work for her.

SMERCONISH: David, thank you as always.

AXELROD: Great to see you, Michael.

SMERCONISH: You too.

Hey, gang, you've still got time to vote on today's poll question at smerconish.com. Will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power?

Fingers crossed. Hoping that will be the case. Check this out from Rob Rogers, one of our cartoonists at smerconish.com.

Hey, by the way -- by the way, every week you see the work of editorial cartoonists that I feature in my daily newsletter, Steve Breen, Jack Ohman, Rob Rogers, Scott Stantis. Well, their work throughout the election of 2024 in chronological order is going to be released in book form, a coffee table book, as soon as the election ends, copies of what we call "Smercomics" 2024, available for pre-sale right now only, only at my website at smerconish.com.

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[09:53:16]

SMERCONISH: Well, that's where we stand right now. 33,000 and change, a flat 60-40. Oh, will the election end with a smooth and peaceful transition of power? Praying that you, 60%, are wrong.

Here's some social media that came in during the course of the program. Keep voting at smerconish.com.

What do we have? "Pennsylvania's had another four years to fix their election counting. They are doing nothing, you are making excuses for them already."

Are you blanking me? I'm making excuses? I just shined a spotlight. I have the Secretary of the Commonwealth as a guest to say this hasn't been fixed. It ought to be fixed. It's not his problem, by the way. It's the fault of the legislature.

And I wanted to inform the nation that if the election doesn't end that night, if John King's not in front of the magic wall telling you who won, everybody just chill because that's the reason why.

More social media reaction. What else do we have? I'm not defending it at all. It's a disgrace.

"Shit show, guaranteed," said William Moseley. I have nothing to add. I'll have what he's having.

One more reaction. What do we have?

"Smerconish, why do you give this rabid Trump sycophant air time, (Byron Donalds)? He has no mind of his own and echoes the Trump talking points."

Fat and stupid? Okay, I'm not even going to go there because there was a comment I could have made. Instead, I'll say, of course I'm giving him a microphone. And of course I'm giving him a platform. We're in the midst of the closest race of any of our lives. And he's a member of Congress and he's a spokesman for the Trump campaign. And I want to hear what they have to say. That doesn't mean I'm going to agree with everything that he said.

By the way, you're not going to like this either. Did you notice the agreement between Congressman Byron Donalds and David Axelrod, who was Senior Strategist to President Obama? Both of them agreed that Vice President Kamala Harris is going to have to come out and have something to say about the issues. So that needs to be said.

[09:55:11]

I mean, the idea -- I guess this is what offended you the most about Byron Donalds, the idea that we're this far into the campaign and I know how she got there, and there hasn't been a single, substantive, one-on-one interview?

As a political strategy, it might be brilliant because it seems to be working. But as a voter, isn't that borderline offensive? I mean, at what point does she come out to play?

That's my view. So in that regard, I agree with Byron Donalds. Where I disagree with him is when he offers his explanation as to the lack of impulse control of his candidate, Donald Trump. I mean, the guy just cannot stay on message to save his life, to save his political life.

Go vote if you haven't already. Order a book, Smercomics 2024, at my website. I'll see you next week.

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