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The Brief with Jim Sciutto
CNN International: Trump: Ceasefire with Iran on "Massive Life Support"; Trump on Iran: They are Going to Fold; Passengers from Virus-Hit Ship Being Quarantined, Monitored; WHO Says it Expects More Hantavirus Cases to Arise; Small Businesses Impacted by Iran War; Starmer Fights for His Future; Taiwan a Top Issue Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit. Aired 6-7p ET
Aired May 11, 2026 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[18:00:00]
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR, "THE BRIEF": Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington, and
you're watching "The Brief."
Just ahead this hour, President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is on life support after he rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal. Passengers
from the cruise ship hit by the Hantavirus are heading home to quarantine in more than 20 different countries. And we speak to Taiwan's opposition
leader ahead of Donald Trump's trip to China. She is urging more dialogue with Beijing to prevent a war.
We begin, though, with peace talks between the U.S. and Iran still stalled. U.S. President Donald Trump has called Iran's latest counterproposal,
quote, "stupid and total garbage," while Iran says it's reasonable and generous. At the White House earlier, the president told reporters the
Iranian leaders changed their mind when it appears the two countries are on the verge of an agreement. He had this to say when asked about the status
of the ceasefire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: I would call it the weakest right now. After reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I didn't even finish reading
it, I said, I'm going to waste my time reading it. I would say it's one of the weakest. Right now, it's on life support. They understand these are all
medical people. Dr. Oz, life support is not a good thing. Do you agree? I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support where the doctor walks
in and says, sir, your loved one has approximately a 1 percent chance of living.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Stephen Collinson joins me now. I mean, in some humor, but we're talking about two powers shooting at each other there with U.S. forces at
risk. You wrote a piece describing the trap that Trump has put himself in, in your words. And you say two traps, one geopolitical, the other domestic.
And it struck me reading that, that the two, to some degree, are -- they contradict each other, right? Because he doesn't want to extend the war, it
seems. But if he doesn't, he can't open the Strait and therefore, suffers from the higher grass prices, which is the domestic trap you're talking
about. What -- is there a way out of this?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: It's very hard to see one. And I think the trap is compounded this week by the fact that Iran has
refused the ceasefire days before the president goes to China. Clearly, he doesn't want to escalate the conflict. As he sits down with Xi Jinping this
week, you know, one of the key world power brokers and someone who is laying on this trip, which is deeply important to the president's concept
of his own power.
And I -- which I think ironically will end up showing some of the constraints on his power. But those two traps, geopolitical and domestic,
they work, as you say, to exacerbate each other. The longer Trump doesn't get this solved geopolitically, the deeper the price he will pay
politically.
But he doesn't have the political bandwidth to go ahead and escalate this war and perhaps absorb American casualties, worse economic impacts because
the war is so unpopular and the American people have lost confidence in his ability to wage it.
SCIUTTO: Now, from China's perspective, Trump clearly wanted this war done before he went to China. But the war is dragging, I mean, his own
description there, the ceasefire is on massive life support. China might perceive that as weakness on the part of the U.S., wouldn't it? That he
can't end the war and he's kind of stuck?
COLLINSON: Certainly. Again, the United States is bogged down in the Middle East at a time when it's supposed to be gearing up for the challenge
from this new superpower and potential global hegemon, China. The fact that Iran, a much smaller country, has flouted Trump and arguably disrespected
him with this reply to his peace deal, which I think shows that the Iranians believe they might be winning this showdown. They're in no hurry
to give the president a deal.
[18:05:00]
But China does have equities on both sides of this. It needs the Strait of Hormuz open because it gets a lot of oil through there. A rise in global
energy prices hurts its economy, which does have its own structural problems. But I don't think that necessarily adds up, as the administration
may hope it will do, to Chinese pressure on Iran to end this because they have an interest in the U.S. being distracted and U.S. power being exposed.
SCIUTTO: Now, there is some worry in the region that Trump, looking for a win, as he often does, particularly on trade, might sacrifice something to
China to get such a deal, whether that be, you know, Boeing jets or soybeans, right up to and including something on Taiwan.
COLLINSON: Right. If there is any progress here, and because of the backdrop of the Iran War, China is sure to drive a hard bargain. It
believes, I'm sure, that it's in a position of strength, a greater position of strength relative to the president than it might have been if this
summit had taken place six weeks ago when it was supposed to have done, and if he'd have gone to China with the boost to his power of a decisive
victory.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
COLLINSON: So, I don't think that President Trump really views the defense of Taiwan as something that is absolutely critical to American national
interest. He's never intimated that he might. The concept of strategic ambiguity seems a lot less strong under this president, for example, than
under President Joe Biden and most of the presidents for the last 20 years.
So, he's a very transactional president, and his improvisational personal style makes you wonder what he might be prepared to give away in return for
something that helps his own political and personal priorities.
SCIUTTO: Trump's own advisers have told me that he's at best equivocal on a U.S. military defense of Taiwan. Stephen Collinson, thanks so much.
COLLINSON: Thanks.
SOARES: Joining me now is Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. Sanam, thanks so much for joining
us.
SANAM VAKIL, DIRECTOR, CHATHAM HOUSE'S MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA PROGRAM: Thanks for having me.
SCIUTTO: Who has the upper hand in this war right now? Even after the devastating U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran, Iran clearly still
has leverage.
VAKIL: Iran does indeed have leverage, but this is very much a draw right now. It's easy to say that Iran has, quote/unquote, "won" because it hasn't
lost and because it survived the almost 40-day war against the United States and Israel.
But for Iran to really win this war, it needs to translate its increased leverage, which is its survival, the fact that it's still retained some
cards with regards to its nuclear program, and that we've seen it enhance its control over the Strait of Hormuz. It has to translate that into an
actual deal. Without a deal, Iran isn't a clear winner because it faces economic problems and political problems back home.
SCIUTTO: The administration seems to be betting that if military threats don't move Tehran on negotiations, that economic pain will. That over time,
it'll be just too damaging to its economy. We're seeing some evidence of that. But I wonder, is that a smart bet? As you've seen reported, and CNN
has been among those reporting, the CIA assessment is that Iran could hold out perhaps a number of months.
VAKIL: Honestly, the Trump administration doesn't really understand the psychology and the leadership culture in Tehran. It has survived this war.
It feels that it is resilient, perhaps maybe even overconfident. But the mentality is that this war has to end with a deal, but a deal that is in
Tehran's favor.
What is Iran seeking? It is seeking guarantees that there won't be another war in 12 or 18 months. It doesn't have a great deal of trust, if any, with
President Trump, who has burned them many times, including at the negotiating table. And it is unlikely to surrender its leverage at the top
of any negotiation, which is what President Trump is seeking.
So, honestly, the White House needs to reverse the psychology and understand the mindset and the worldview of the leadership in Tehran.
SCIUTTO: So, the president has another difficult diplomatic balancing act, given that he's going to China in a couple of days' time. There is concern
in Asia that President Trump might give up a fair amount to get progress on trade or perhaps some lucrative deals for U.S. businesses. Are those
warranted concerns, particularly as relate to Taiwan?
[18:10:00]
VAKIL: I think there are certainly concerns, obviously, because the geopolitics is so important for President Trump. But, you know, Asian
partners of the United States are under enormous amount of economic pressure as a result of the recent election. And I think that probably this
is going to be much more of a chess match and a much more of a balancing act than any sort of surrender or give and take.
I think if both sides, Xi Jinping and President Trump, walk away without having overcommitted and have kept the politics relatively neutral, that
will be a win for both of them. This is a tough time, and the economic consequences of this war are quite severe.
SCIUTTO: Now, how about with the Iran War? Israel is clearly not satisfied with the results of this war. I've been told that by Israeli officials. The
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told 60 Minutes there are still enrichment sites that need to be dismantled, ballistic missiles that still need to be
destroyed, proxies that Iran still supports.
Are you seeing tension between the two partners in the Iran War, the U.S. and Iran, and that Israel might say, well, the U.S. may be out, but we
might have to act on our own?
VAKIL: Well, I think there's certainly some daylight at this point where President Trump has indicated time and again that the ceasefire has to
hold, despite, you know, some little things that keep going wrong in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. And that's clearly because the 40
days of war were enough. And it was clear that the cost of the war and the level of escalation could be really damaging for the president.
And I think he's understood that perhaps he was oversold on this war by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who suggested that the regime in Tehran was weak,
that the people would rise up. And we haven't seen any evidence of that, of course. And the system seems intact in Iran and still very repressive. So,
there's daylight there.
And I think right now, President Trump is thinking about domestic issues in the United States, geopolitical issues with China, and doesn't want to be
drawn into another round, particularly when U.S. intelligence has been right along the whole way that Iran was perhaps not as weak as Israel
claimed it was. And that in fact, the military dynamics haven't shifted as much. And so, that's problematic. The only way out at this point is at the
negotiating table. Not through further rounds of military conflict.
SCIUTTO: Yes. And we reported on Friday that Iran, by U.S. estimates, retains more than two-thirds of its missiles, even after the U.S. and
Israeli attacks. Sanam Vakil, thanks so much for joining us.
VAKIL: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Another story we're following closely now. The last remaining passengers, some of the crew from the cruise ship hit by the deadly
Hantavirus, are now off that ship. And the MV Hondius has left Tenerife. But the international health response is just beginning. Authorities are
continuing to test people and monitor symptoms of the rare, but extremely lethal virus.
Medical officials say it is likely more cases will arise as a result of this outbreak. But they're working to ease fears of anything approaching a
new pandemic, saying the Hantavirus is not another COVID-19. Spanish health authorities say, altogether, they brought 94 passengers of 19 different
nationalities off the MV Hondius.
Melissa Bell reports from the Canary Islands, where the ship docked before setting sail a short time ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The last of the passengers may have left the MV Hondius ahead of its onward
journey to the Netherlands. But amongst those 17 Americans evacuated on Sunday, at least one new case of Hantavirus now confirmed, with another
passenger showing symptoms which can include fatigue and a fever. The two had been kept in isolation away from the others as they traveled to
Nebraska.
BELL: The American case is interesting because that passenger had been identified as having had close contact with some of the deceased passengers
on board the MV Hondius, which is why when he was brought ashore on Sunday, he was brought ashore separately from the other American passengers. It's
also a reminder of the length of this virus' incubation period.
BELL (voice-over): The other confirmed case from those disembarked on Sunday, a French woman who began feeling unwell on the flight home to
Paris. That's according to France's health ministry. She is now in quarantine at this hospital to the north of the French capital.
TEDROS GHEBREYESUS, DIRECTOR-GENERAL, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: The French passenger is deteriorating now. Imagine if that happened in the ship
and her fate would have been more dangerous, actually. So, she's in good hands and she's protected now.
[18:15:00]
BELL: Even as you have sought to contain this virus, the World Health Organization, with this operation, you're understanding how it functions
better and better. Are you confident now that we know enough about it, that this is an outbreak that we're hoping can fight this and thanks to the work
that you've done here?
GHEBREYESUS: We learned our lessons from COVID as well. As we say, this is not another COVID. It will not be a pandemic.
BELL (voice-over): What started as a voyage of adventure to some of the world's most remote islands turned into a nightmare for dozens of
passengers after three people died and several others fell ill with the virus. The evolution of the infection has been closely tracked by the World
Health Organization, even as it has sought to contain its spread.
DR. BORIS PAVLIN, MEDICAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: The most important aspect from now, because all the symptomatic people were
offloaded last in Cabo Verde, the issue now has turned to the remaining passengers and crew who had, to varying degrees, contact with those sick
individuals before they were offloaded.
BELL (voice-over): As the military-style operation wrapped up in Tenerife, the ship's captain put out this message, thanking everyone for their
solidarity.
CAPTAIN JAN DOBROGOWSKI, MV HONDIUS: The past few weeks have been extremely challenging to us all, as I'm sure you know. What touched me the
most, what moved me the most, was your patience, your discipline, and also kindness.
BELL (voice-over): The flurry of evacuations and repatriation flights seems to have gone smoothly. But even as the last passengers are offloaded,
it is those in contact with anyone who is both positive and symptomatic that are now at greatest risk.
Melissa Bell, CNN, Tenerife.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: 18 passengers from that ship are being monitored at specialized facilities here in the U.S., in Nebraska or Georgia. Dianne Gallagher is in
Omaha, Nebraska. Dianne, I wonder what you're hearing from medical authorities there about the risk from this. I mean, they're certainly
taking enormous precautions as they move those people from that ship, boats and planes, and now to where they are. Is there any real risk of it
breaking out beyond?
DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So, medical officials don't like to speak in absolutes, and they wouldn't completely guarantee or
rule anything out. But they have said repeatedly that this is a low risk for transmission to other individuals who have not come in contact with
anybody on that cruise ship. But that is in part why they are taking such extreme precaution here.
Behind me in this building right now, look, this is the University of Nebraska Medical Center. In the basement of that building is the National
Quarantine Unit. There are 15 passengers from that ship that are in these separate rooms right now, which medical officials describe as kind of like
hotel rooms. They have exercise equipment, beds. They can FaceTime with their families and watch entertainment. They cannot have visitors, though.
And what's basically happening is this is a room with negative pressure and absolutely elite ventilation, Jim. They are going to be assessed by the
medical officials here, and they are then going to be monitored for a fever, any kind of fatigue, any sort of symptoms that may come up that
leads these doctors to believe that they might need to start doing additional testing for those passengers.
Now, there is one person you heard Melissa talk about this American who had those tests. Two tests were told because of that contact with a deceased
passenger. One of those tests, Spanish health authorities told CNN they thought was not conclusive, but American officials believed that it was a
weak positive. A second test of that same individual came up negative, but because they wanted to be very cautious about transport, they regarded this
person as a positive case. And that person was transported differently. That biocontainment travel and then immediately put into the biocontainment
unit here at Nebraska. Now, that person is receiving a different type of care.
They are being monitored, though they are asymptomatic and officials here and Nebraska have said and stressed that they do not believe that
asymptomatic positive cases would transmit to others. But again, they don't want to rule anything out. So, they're being extremely cautious here. That
individual, the two people who went to Atlanta, Emory University, the biocontainment unit there, that's a person who started showing symptoms
shortly before or once they got on to the flight. And they say that that person is being assessed right now in the biocontainment unit there. Their
travel companion also went to Atlanta.
[18:20:00]
Part of why they did that, Jim, is because they have a contingency plan, basically divide and conquer. There are three remaining biocontainment
units here in Nebraska, and this is the creme de la creme, the cream of the crop here on this type of addressing and medical intervention for this type
of situation.
And so, they have those three units left. They knew somebody was symptomatic. They said, let's send them somewhere else so we can make sure
we have these additional rooms in case some of these other passengers start showing symptoms.
SCIUTTO: Right.
GALLAGHER: Now, this is about a 42-day period we've talked about. It's a very long incubation period. If they don't test positive, if they don't
start showing symptoms, some of these individuals, if they want to, are going to be allowed to leave, if they're assessed that they can, to their
homes in other parts of the United States, as long as that city has a medical facility that can do daily checks and monitors, and they have an
area where they can isolate away and quarantine from other members in their household.
SCIUTTO: OK. Something that I certainly want to watch closely. Yes, they've got to be careful. Dianne Gallagher, thanks so much.
GALLAGHER: Yes.
SCIUTTO: I do want to go now to Dr. Deb Houry. She's a senior fellow at the Yale School of Public Health and former chief medical officer of the
CDC here in the U.S. Dr. Howrey, thanks so much for joining us.
DR. DEB HOURY, SENIOR FELLOW, YALE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, FORMER CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER, U.S. CDC AND ADJUNCT PROFESSOR, EMORY UNIVERSITY: My
pleasure.
SCIUTTO: So, help us understand the degree of risk. The WHO does expect there to be more Hantavirus cases. A CDC official says he cannot guarantee
there won't be spread here in the U.S., but at the same time, they're saying it's no COVID-19 pandemic. I mean, how should Americans view the
risk of this getting bigger?
DR. HOURY: So, I would say the risk to the average American, like myself, my neighbors, is very low. And that's because with COVID, that was a new
virus. We didn't have good data on how it was going to behave, how it was going to mutate.
With Hantavirus, we've had 30 years of data and over 900 cases in the U.S. And there was an outbreak in Argentina about three or four years ago with
30 cases. And there was good data on that to show that people that transmitted the virus were symptomatic with high severs, other symptoms.
So, because of that, we're pretty confident on how this spreads.
Certainly, we need to monitor it because we've learned viruses can change. But today, based on what we know, it's very low risk to anybody that wasn't
exposed.
SCIUTTO: You, of course, resigned from the CDC last year because of what you cited as the politicizing of the department and, for instance, putting
political leaders in senior positions at the CDC. Are you seeing any effects of that politicization in the CDC's response to the Hantavirus in
recent days?
DR. HOURY: What I would say is there's been a bit more of a delay than I would expect coming from CDC, and that's likely because the great staff
that are at CDC, all the scientists and other project officers, all the work they do has to be cleared. And we're hearing more from HHS via tweets
than I would like to hear from CDC scientists. I would like to see a daily briefing from the CDC scientists directly without HHS really overseeing
that. I think that would provide me more confidence, but there's also not a career leader in the office of the director at CDC right now.
SCIUTTO: How about cooperation between the CDC and, for instance, the WHO and other health authorities around the world who've been involved in
trying to contain this? I spoke to a doctor last week who said the CDC was not even allowed to talk to the WHO. They had to ask for an exception to do
so, which is kind of remarkable to think of, given that's the job of these organizations.
But are they still able to cooperate in an international sense when you have something like this that potentially affects multiple nations?
DR. HOURY: So, CDC is able to cooperate when there's an urgent health threat. I think what's unfortunate, though, is you don't want to be working
with people for the first time when it's an emergency. You want to have those relationships and that boots on the ground all the time so that when
there's an emergency, you've got that muscle memory.
CDC is working closely with the World Health Organization, but I worry about what happens with the next big health threat, with the Department of
State changing funding for CDC. That's going to limit visibility in other countries for CDC. And with the World Health Organization withdrawal, it
just puts us at even more risk.
SCIUTTO: We've already seen in this country issues as a result of this new approach. For instance, you had these measles outbreaks because of
increased anti-vax and vaccine skepticism. There's been some -- as I understand it, some reaction to that where vaccination rates went up when
you did have those outbreaks.
[18:25:00]
But you have mentioned other examples, for instance, an increase in whooping cough cases. What has been the national effect so far of the
changes at the CDC and HHS? And are those effects being contained, in your view?
DR. HOURY: I think when you look at the decrease in vaccine confidence due to the secretary's continued misstatements, we are seeing pediatric deaths
from flu, from whooping cough, from measles. That is avoidable if the secretary would stand behind the science for vaccines and other medical
treatments and promote that as much as he promotes vitamins.
SCIUTTO: Dr. Deb Houry, appreciate you joining.
DR. HOURY: Thanks.
SCIUTTO: Coming up on "The Brief," how the Iran War is affecting small businesses around the world by driving up the costs of energy and raw
materials. The CEO of a plastic packaging company joins us next to share his story.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: U.S. stocks closing higher once again with A.I. enthusiasm still helping to keep the market rising. This despite worries about rising oil
prices as the conflict between U.S. and Iran shows no sign of ending.
The S&P and NASDAQ finished at fresh highs once again with semiconductor stocks leading the advance. Investors are watching for data on consumer
prices, retail sales and producer prices for signs that rising energy costs are spreading more broadly throughout the economy.
The Iran War is certainly causing raw material costs to spike, hitting businesses around the world. For example, it is driving up the price of
polyethylene, raising the cost of plastic packaging used for so many everyday goods. Many manufacturers say they've been forced to charge their
customers more as a result, costs that of course ultimately will be passed on to consumers.
Joining me now, Kevin Kelly, CEO of Emerald Packaging, a California company that makes plastic bags. Kevin, good to have you.
KEVIN KELLY, CEO, EMERALD PACKAGING: Good to be here.
SCIUTTO: So, you said you've already had to increase your prices by 8 percent due to the increased plastic costs stemming from the war, and
that's the largest monthly increase in your career. I wonder how customers respond.
KELLY: Oh, they're really enthusiastic. They're so happy. No, to be truthful, I think this time customers have expected the increases.
[18:30:00]
Listen, they're seeing, our customers are mainly farmers and they're seeing huge increases in fertilizer costs, diesel costs, everything really across
the board that they use in farming. And so, for the packaging guy to walk in and say, I'm going up 8 percent almost seems like a relief to them. So,
I haven't had much resistance to this round of price increases say compared to 2002.
SCIUTTO: Now, if this is a true oil shock, as I've heard from some energy analysts, and that even if the war were to truly end tomorrow and the
straight open wide, that there's just so much backlog in the system that it's going to take a while for this to dissipate. I mean, do you expect as
this drags on for you, the prices of the things you depend on to continue to rise?
KELLY: I think that if the Straits are blocked for another week, we will see more increases on the table for June. So, I think we're on a precipice
here at our business. Plastic has already gone up 115 percent since the beginning of the war. And for it to go up another 100 percent is not out of
the question. And that means another 8 percent, 10 percent increase to our customers.
And you're right, it'll eventually end up in grocery prices and retail prices. You know, listen, the producer price index for manufactured goods
hit an all-time high last month. It went above 2002. And so, we're not alone out here. I know that my competitors, I know that the folks down the
street who make things are going through the same thing we are. And that's the price of everything going up.
SCIUTTO: Yes. Do you see a combined effect over the course of the last several months, year and beyond, of not just energy costs, but tariff
costs? I mean, do you find those interacting in your business?
KELLY: I would say yes. For some imported plastic, for instance, we're getting hit with the tariff and getting hit with the war cost. I think that
the one thing that separates the two, frankly, is shortages. I think the war is going to bring shortages and plastics materials starting in the next
eight to 10 weeks. Because as you said, plastic and other petrochemicals are sort of caught up in the Straits. Dubai makes a lot of finished plastic
and that's all caught up in some port.
And that's 10, 12 weeks of production probably by the time this is over. And you just can't replace that by turning to production in the United
States. And so, there's going to be shortages in things like salad packaging, probably starting this summer.
SCIUTTO: Ultimately, the consumers pay. And businesses like yours. Kevin Kelly, we appreciate you joining.
KELLY: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Still to come, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is vowing to prove critics wrong after crushing local election results for his party.
I'm going to discuss that with Independence chief political commentator, John Rentoul.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:35:00]
SCIUTTO: Welcome back to "The Brief." I'm Jim Sciutto. And here are the international headlines we're watching today.
President Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is on, quote, massive life support. The president told reporters today he has, quote, "the best
plan ever" to end the war, but did not elaborate. And it is not ending the war, by the way. He called an Iranian counterproposal garbage, while Tehran
described it as generous and reasonable.
The virus-stricken MV Hondius cruise ship has now left the Canary Islands. It is headed to the Netherlands, where it will be disinfected. Passengers
on the ship have all disembarked. Many of them will quarantine for more than a month. 25 crew members and two medical professionals remain on
board.
The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing pressure to step down after losing nearly 1,500 council seats in local elections. Now, three
ministerial aides have stepped down and more than 60 Labour lawmakers have called on Starmer to resign. That number getting updated all the time. The
prime minister told a Labour gathering he plans to prove doubters wrong.
Joining me now is John Rental, chief political commentator for the Independent and visiting professor at King's College London. John, good to
have you.
JOHN RENTOUL, CHIEF POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, THE INDEPENDENT AND VISITING PROFESSOR, KING'S COLLEGE LONDON: Hi there.
SCIUTTO: I mean, the political winds shift so quickly. Starmer, as you know, won in a landslide. It's less than two years ago. And now, we're
seeing him on political life support here. Is he going to survive this?
RENTOUL: No, I don't think so. I mean, it's been a fast-moving day today, Jim. I mean, you know, I would I would have said at the start of the day
that he probably would survive in the in the short-term. But it's just been a bloodbath in Westminster today.
We -- I mean, you said 60 MPs have called for him to go. It's up to 76 at the last count. I mean, it's nearly midnight in London now. So, that
trickle has more or less stopped. But the prime minister's colleagues, several cabinet ministers have been in to discuss the situation with him.
And some of them have, including we're told. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, have suggested that it is time for him to set out a timetable
for when he's going to resign.
SCIUTTO: Is there a clear, obvious replacement at this point? Because you're up close to 80 in terms of those calling for him to go. A challenger
would need 81 votes. Is there someone who you believe could get those 81?
RENTOUL: Oh, yes. But there's no clear challenger. I mean, there are several candidates. I mean, the two most likely at the moment are ways
treating the health secretary and Angela Rayner, who was deputy prime minister until she had to resign over a problem with her tax affairs, which
has still not been fully resolved.
[18:40:00]
Those are the two leading candidates, but who knows what could happen. This situation could be very unstable and there's another candidate outside
Parliament who's not available to run yet, the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who seems to be the most popular of the three candidates but
he's not actually in Parliament at the moment, so he can't be a candidate.
SCIUTTO: Now, there was a time, particularly in the wake of Brexit and the economic damage that followed, that the name Nigel Farage wouldn't get many
-- much -- many bets that he could be the next prime minister of the U.K. Is a Reform Party government a likelihood, a real possibility, following
the next elections?
RENTOUL: It's a real possibility, yes, absolutely. I mean, it does seem extraordinary because Nigel Farage had -- in a sense, he'd almost -- he'd
achieved his lifetime's ambition in getting Britain to withdraw from the European Union. He'd fallen quiet for a bit, he still had a -- his party,
the Reform Party, was still going, but he wasn't taking an active part in it until just before the general election, which, as you say, was only two
-- was less than two years ago.
But since then, his party has been leading the opinion polls in Britain and there's a very real chance that he could be prime minister after the next
general election, although that is still some time away.
SCIUTTO: Where would that leave the U.K. in terms of its international relations? Because Starmer had been flirting with some sort of
rapprochement with Europe post Brexit, not re-entry but some sort -- you know, relaxing some of the restrictions et cetera. Where would that leave
that effort or the relationship with the U.S.? I mean, I suppose it's hard to say.
RENTOUL: Well, it is very hard to say. I mean, Nigel Farage is supposed to be on friendly terms with Donald Trump, but Mr. Trump's term is supposed to
come to an end in 2028 and our general election, the next general election is probably not until 2029.
So, you know, Nigel Farage is not necessarily going to have good relations with other countries at all because he's pretty much a sort of Trumpian
British nationalist against a close relationship with the European Union, and he'll be trying to pursue these trade deals around the world, which do
not make up for the loss of our trade with the rest of Europe.
SCIUTTO: Yes, despite all the advertisements to that effect. John Rentaoul, thanks so much for joining.
RENTOUL: That's my pleasure.
SCIUTTO: Just ahead, President Trump, of course, set to visit China this week. Among the top issues, Taiwan as the island now passes a special
defense budget which is significantly lower than what Washington was hoping for.
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[18:45:00]
SCIUTTO: President Trump on his way to Beijing soon at the top of the agenda. Iran, just hours ago his administration imposed new sanctions on a
dozen companies and individuals it says are involved in oil sales and deliveries from Iran to where? China.
Another big issue in the Xi-Trump summit, Taiwan. Washington has been pressuring the island to spend more on its own defense. However, Taiwan's
parliament just approved only two-thirds of the amount sought by the government for additional defense spending. The head of Taiwan's largest
opposition party has advocated spending less on defense and more in dialogue with Beijing.
Will Ripley is in Taipei and he joins me now. I wonder, of course, Beijing has its preferences among the political parties in Taipei, right? Those
more likely to engage than to focus on the possibility of independence. Are we seeing something of a pitch here from the KMT in the midst of this
summit?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think we are, Jim, and obviously we have local elections coming up later this year and
presidential elections coming up in 2028. And the KMT is arguing that the current ruling party, which has been now in power for three consecutive
presidential elections, is ratcheting up tensions across the Taiwan Strait without any possibility of dialogue.
And President Lai Ching-te wanted this $40 billion special defense budget that the opposition-controlled legislature said was vague in many areas. It
talked about U.S. weapons, but it also talked about domestic programs that they felt were not necessarily fully explained. And they believe that this
arming up without dialogue is creating a real problem for Taiwan. Of course, there's another school of thought that says if Taiwan doesn't have
these weapons, they could put themselves in a very vulnerable position where they would be unable to defend against a potential attack by China.
So, there's a real divide.
There's a real debate happening right now on this island. And one of the most polarizing figures at the center of it all is Cheng Li-wun. She's the
head of the opposition. The State Department said her party has been behind unhelpful stalling and that the passage of this smaller defense bill
without passing the rest of it is almost a concession to the Chinese Communist Party.
Taiwanese security officials have even accused Beijing of using this particular Taiwanese politician to shape the narrative ahead of the Trump-
Xi summit. But you listen to what she has to say for yourself.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RIPLEY (voice-over): As President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with Taiwan expected to
be high on the agenda, the island democracy that China claims as its own seems to be sending a divided message on defense.
After months of political fighting, and with Chinese fighter jets and warships routinely circling around Taiwan, the opposition-controlled
legislature approved a dramatically smaller military package. Many blamed the gridlock on the leader of Taiwan's largest opposition party, KMT, Cheng
Li-wun, who has called for less military spending.
RENTOUL: What's your response to calls from U.S. lawmakers that Taiwan needs to spend this money on its defense to send the message to the Global
Community that Taiwan is serious about its defense?
CHENG LI-WUN, KMT CHAIR: Actually, we very serious. We have been serious all the time. And that's why we keep explaining --
LI-WUN (through translator): Most of it, USD 40 million budget, is too vague and lacks details. So, we can't give a blank check authorization.
LI-WUN: We are trying our best.
RIPLEY (voice-over): Some fear her best may not be enough to deter China's mounting military pressure campaign. The opposition plan funds U.S.
weapons, but trims domestic programs like drones. Taiwan's ruling party, the DPP, has accused Cheng's KMT of taking orders from China.
Just weeks ago, she went to Beijing for a rare meeting with Xi Jinping, who refuses to engage with Taiwan's elected leader, seen by China as a diehard
separatist.
RIPLEY: You obviously have your critics that accused you of being a pawn while you were in Beijing, saying that you and Xi Jinping had almost the
same language.
[18:50:00]
LI-WUN (through translator): Although it may seem I have a common language with Xi Jinping, but it is precisely because there are so many differences
between the two sides of the Strait. It is critical that we find a common foundation for peaceful dialogue. Otherwise, war is unavoidable.
RIPLEY (voice-over): Next month, Cheng heads to the U.S., hoping to convince lawmakers and Trump allies Taiwan does not have to choose between
Washington and Beijing.
RIPLEY: You said publicly you're worried about Taiwan being treated like a pawn. Are you talking about the United States treating Taiwan like a pawn?
LI-WUN (through translator): I believe it is the DPP government's wrong policies that have reduced Taiwan to a pawn. Being friendly with the U.S.
does not mean there is hostility towards China.
RIPLEY (voice-over): Cheng dodges questions about her presidential ambitions, but does make a bold promise if her party wins in the 2028
elections.
LI-WUN (through translator): A KMT administration would make the possibility of war totally preventable.
RIPLEY: How can you guarantee it won't happen if Taiwan doesn't have what your military leaders say are enough weapons to deter military action by
China?
LI-WUN (through translator): When the KMT is in power, Taiwan's defense capabilities, its deterrence will still exist.
RIPLEY (voice-over): But China's military pressure around Taiwan continues, even during Cheng's recent trip to Beijing. And now, as Trump
prepares to meet Xi Jinping face to face, Taiwan confronts two radically different visions for avoiding war.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
RIPLEY (on camera): Cheng claims that behind closed doors, Xi Jinping told her that he respects Taiwan's democratic system. There are some people on
this island that are skeptical about that. Cheng also warned that she says Taiwan doesn't want to become the next Ukraine, implying that because
Ukraine got close to NATO, that that was the reason why Russia attacked. Obviously, very controversial comments.
She also says that Taiwanese people should identify both as Taiwanese and Chinese, Jim, which, of course, is a very hot button issue here. A growing
number of people here in Taiwan identify only as Taiwanese. They don't identify as being members of a greater Chinese nation. But that's something
that she's really pushing for.
So, the results of these elections coming up is going to be a real litmus test as to how the people of Taiwan feel about all of these issues and what
they think will be the best approach moving forward to do with the vast majority of people on this island want, which is to maintain the status quo
and keep this island's democratic system safely in place. Is it more weapons or is it engagement? That's the big debate happening right now.
SCIUTTO: Yes, she seems to be touching a lot of political third rails there, as you describe it. Will Ripley in Taipei, thanks so much. And we
will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: The 2026 World Cup is now just one month away. Excitement is building and likely to increase as we get closer to the opening match
between Mexico and South Africa on June 11th.
[18:55:00]
Host nations, Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. are preparing for big crowds. Fans, though, are facing sky-high ticket prices. Souvenir sellers, they're
gearing up for some big sales as well. We'll be watching.
And finally, before we go --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: That's a lot of accordions. The sounds of accordions fill the air over Slovenia's Lake Bled on Sunday as the country hosted its annual
Accordion Festival. More than 450 musicians played traditional Slovenian folk favorites on accordions in a mass performance on the promenade. The
festival celebrates Slovenia's rich accordion heritage. My dad played the accordion. Not a bad instrument.
Thanks so much for joining. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. You've been watching "The Brief." Please do stay with CNN.
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