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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Iran and Proxies Launch New Strikes on U.S. Allies in the Gulf; Multiple Locations in Tehran Hit in Latest Airstrikes; U.S. Lawmakers Divided on White House Justification for Iran Strikes; Iranians Split Between Celebration and Fear of What's Next; Oil Prices Hit 8-Month High as Energy Markets React to Iran War. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired March 03, 2026 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[00:00:27]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: And welcome to a special edition of THE STORY IS. I'm Elex Michaelson. And we are broadcasting live from CNN headquarters in Atlanta all week.

Tonight the top story is war with Iran. We're entering the fourth day of the U.S. and Israel's war, a conflict which has now exploded across the Middle East.

This right here is a live image from Beirut as Israel launched a wave of attacks on Hezbollah a short time ago. You can see the aftermath of that right there with the dark clouds. Meantime, U.S. allies in the Gulf and across the region are fending off the latest wave of retaliatory attacks from Iran and its proxies. Hundreds of ballistic missiles, more than a thousand drones have been intercepted so far, according to official figures.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Take cover. Get away from the windows. Take cover and wait for further instructions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: What you're hearing there is a security warning that played over the loudspeakers at the U.S. embassy in Jordan. That embassy, one of the largest in the world, was evacuated due to an unspecified threat on Monday. Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, sources tell CNN the U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two suspected Iranian drones. There are no initial reports of injuries, a source tells us.

In Iran, more than 700 civilians have been killed since the war began on Saturday. That's according to the latest figures from a U.S. based human rights group. That number, though, could grow exponentially, as President Trump tells CNN, quote, "the big wave hasn't even happened."

Here's what the president said earlier about what forced the U.S. to act now. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This was our last best chance to strike. What we're doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime.

PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department has urged citizens to depart now from countries throughout the region due to serious safety risks. You see those countries' names right now on your screen. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issuing his own warning on Monday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE: At the Department of State, our number one priority is the safety and the security of American citizens everywhere in the world. Now, with what's going on in the Middle East with "Operation Epic Fury" and the cowardly attacks that we're seeing from Iran against Gulf countries, I wanted to take this chance to speak directly to Americans who are in the Middle East about the work we are doing to try to keep you safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: U.S. Central Command now says that six American service members were killed in an Iranian strike in Kuwait. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says one projectile managed to penetrate air defenses at the Tactical Operations Center. Source tells CNN the Sunday morning attack came without warning or sirens to alert troops to evacuate.

Now, those casualties are the first Americans killed in action in "Operation Epic Fury." The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine called the service members the best that our nation has to offer.

New CNN polling is giving us insight into how Americans are feeling about the war with Iran. You see it right there. Nearly 60 percent of Americans polled disapprove of the strikes.

Let's break those numbers down right now by political affiliation. Not surprising here nearly 80 percent of Republicans polled say they approve of the strikes. But look at that number. A majority of both independents and Democrats disapprove. A majority of those polled also say they do not think that President Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation.

CNN is covering all angles of this story. Ivan Watson joins us from Hong Kong but first we go to Julia Benbrook, who comes to us live from Washington -- Julia.

JULIA BENBROOK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, people in the region are no doubt on high alert. The U.S. State Department is telling U.S. citizens to depart now from countries throughout the Middle East due to serious safety risks and this comes amid a barrage of Iranian missiles, many specifically targeting U.S. assets in response to the joint U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran.

And it also comes as President Donald Trump is telling CNN that those military operations, as they continue, that a big wave is going to be coming soon.

[00:05:01]

Trump has said that combat operations are going to continue until the objectives are achieved. Now, when it comes to specifics, he has had that number changing. In fact at some point he said, you know, two to three days. Obviously we are several days into this already. He has said throughout the week and then most recently he said that he expects this to take place over four to five weeks.

As he spoke at the White House today, this is the first time we have seen him giving public statements about "Operation Epic Fury." We've seen several prepared and scripted videos. But as he spoke he pointed to that four to five-week timeline again, but added that it could last much longer. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We have the strongest and most powerful, by far, military in the world, and we will easily prevail. We're already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it's OK. Whatever it takes we will always -- and we have, right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BENBROOK: And during those same remarks, he did lay out four objectives. He said that those include destroying Iran's missile capabilities and its navy, preventing it from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, and preventing Iran from arming terrorists.

While top officials have said throughout that the objectives have been very clear, there has been some confusing messaging. We did hear from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earlier today, or I guess yesterday now, just past midnight. But when we heard from him, he said that this is not a regime change war. This is not specifically about regime change even though the actions of this operation did lead to the killing of Iran's supreme leader, as well as many senior leaders and officials there.

And, Elex, I did want to point out some reporting by some of our colleagues who said that Pentagon briefers, while speaking with congressional staff in recent days, acknowledged that Iran did not have specific plans to strike U.S. bases and forces unless Israel struck Iran first, and that contradicted some comments from the administration that there was this imminent threat. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though, as he briefed the Gang of Eight following that today, he did say that the imminent threat that was posed by Iran was their expected retaliation if there were Israeli military operations, and that is what prompted those first strikes.

MICHAELSON: Julia Benbrook, live for us right now from Washington. Julia, thank you.

Let's go now to Hong Kong where CNN senior international correspondent Ivan Watson is standing by.

Ivan, can you talk to us about the Iranian strikes on U.S. allies in the Gulf?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Sure. I mean, this is a -- has turned this into a regional war. It's the fourth day of the joint U.S.-Israeli air assault on Iran. Inside Iran Israel claims to have killed more than 1500 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members. Those are military targets. The CENTCOM, the U.S. military, also claims to have destroyed 11 Iranian navy ships in the Gulf of Oman.

The Iranian state media is confirming that a port there has been on fire, with a number of ships burning. The attack does appear to be having a substantial impact on civilians in Iran. I think you cited, Elex, that the Human Rights Activists News Agency that's based in the U.S. says at least 742 civilians have been killed already in four days of bombardment including 176 children with more than 900 civilians injured. The Iranian government on Monday said more than 555 people had been killed thus far.

The Iranian government which saw its supreme leader killed, as well as its defense minister and armed forces commander and Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, all killed in those strikes on Saturday, is trying to project that it is -- it has continuity in its leadership, even after those serious blows and killings.

Take a listen to what the deputy foreign minister had to say on CNN earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAJID TAKHT-RAVANCHI, IRANIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER: You know, the constitution speaks for itself. We have a president. We have head of judiciary. We have the head of parliament. The supreme leader was assassinated, was martyred by Israeli and American aggression.

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And now a council is in charge, comprised of three people who is doing his job until the, you know, the new leader is going to be elected. So everybody, everything is in order.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: Moving on to the wider war in the Gulf, the Gulf countries of Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman, they have all recorded more than 1600 Iranian missiles and drones fired at them in the first three days of this conflict. You have the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, being struck by two drones as well as the U.S. embassy in Kuwait being hit on Sunday and Monday.

Three U.S. F-15 fighter planes shot down in friendly fire over Kuwait on Monday, and this order that had gone out, this warning from the U.S. State Department telling American citizens to leave from 14 countries across the Middle East, to leave now for their own safety, is complicated by the fact that airports in several of the countries that have been warned, I'm talking about Kuwait and Qatar and the UAE, they have all been targeted by this Iranian barrage, and the airspace has largely been closed over this region, meaning it is very difficult to get out even if the State Department tells you you got to go as fast as possible.

I'll wrap by saying that Beirut, the Lebanese capital, has come under an Israeli bombardment. Hezbollah, the militia there, attacked Israel, announced its attack on Monday and has in the last hour announced a subsequent drone attack on northern Israel. And you can see the smoke there from the Israeli bombardment of southern Beirut. These attacks coming from Hezbollah, even though the Lebanese government has banned the organization and vowed to use the Lebanese Security Forces to stop its actions, setting up the possibility of internal conflict in Lebanon, a country that still bears the scars of a 15-year civil war between internal factions.

Back to you, Elex.

MICHAELSON: Ivan Watson, so much to follow, so much happening.

And let's bring in now CNN's military analyst and retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.

We've heard about U.S. escalation. That's what President Trump is talking about. What exactly does that mean?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: That's a great question, Elex. So one of the possibilities in the extreme sense would, of course, be ground troops and up until this point at least, the president has said that no ground troops will be part of this mission. That is probably not going to be something that will happen in the immediate future, though in my assessment.

I think what will happen in terms of the military campaign going forward is you're going to see more intense air strikes. So Iran has been struck, obviously, quite a bit by both Israeli and U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets. But what they need to do if they're going to go after certain elements, such as the nuclear area, is they're going to have to go after some of the more hardened and deeply buried installations.

And there is one that actually was not struck in June when they did this with the B-2 bombers. That's a site that is south of Natanz. It's called Pickax Mountain. And that particular place is very much underground, and it is reputed to have a large portion of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The nuclear research effort is reputed to be there. So that would be one possible target area that they could go after. Another thing, of course, was mentioned earlier by Secretary of State

Rubio, and that would be to go in and take care of the ballistic missile issue. And he specifically looked at that as being part of the next phase of things. So it looks to me like what they will probably do is they'll probably concentrate on either those -- one of those areas. The nuclear part or the ballistic missile part. And I would bet that they would first go for the ballistic missile part because the Israelis are very much concerned about that.

MICHAELSON: What do you make of Iran's response so far? And what do we know in terms of the capability that they have left after all this bombardment from the U.S. and Israel?

LEIGHTON: Yes. So one of the things that they're going to have to assess, I think, reassess in the intelligence community on our side of this, is what Iran actually is capable of doing.

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So it looks like the Iranians have somewhere between 3,000 to 4,000 of their shorter range missiles, perhaps even more of those. And that's a fairly significant number. And as long as they have the launch capability, that is going to make it a critical part of any mission to, in essence, mop up those kinds of missile capabilities. So when you look at what they've got left, they've got somewhere along that line in the short range area.

In the intermediate range area, they probably have a few thousand as well, a few thousand missiles that could be launched. And now they do have some difficulty getting these launches off undetected, but they have a sufficient enough capability both with their missiles and their drones, that they can cause considerable damage, such as attacking the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, for example, or some of the other targets that they've taken care of in other parts of Saudi Arabia, in the UAE, in Bahrain, and of course, in Kuwait as well.

MICHAELSON: You've heard different timelines thrown around. What's realistic in terms of a timeline for when this fighting stops?

LEIGHTON: That's a really good question because if you're going to, you know, do something that is, quote, "one and done," I don't think that's going to be possible. This is not the kind of targets that where you can go in and bomb something and be done with it and have the idea that that's going to solve the issue, that's going to either take them out of the nuclear business or take them out of the missile business.

They're going to stay in those areas of military preparedness at least. That's how they'll see that. And they're going to do this in a way that will -- they will try to hide a lot of their activities. They will try to keep that from the satellites, you know, that are viewing this from an intelligence perspective. So what they'll end up doing is they will try to use clandestine means to continue to attack the Gulf states and continue to attack, as far as they can, any of the U.S. installations in the area. So as far as the timeline that's realistic, I would say that, you

know, if you go to what the president says with four to five weeks, that may get the job done partially in terms of some of the missile sites, some of the nuclear sites. But what it won't do is it won't take care of the attitude and the -- basically the governmental approach that they have within the Islamic Republic so the Islamic Republic regime is going to stay intact no matter what weapons systems we hit and no matter what sites we destroy. It's going to be very hard to bring them to a negotiating table especially after this operation that we've undertaken now.

MICHAELSON: For years, we've heard about the risk of Iranian sleeper agents maybe being activated in the United States. If there were ever a time to do that, it seems like it would be now. Is that something that we should be concerned about? And what would that potentially look like?

LEIGHTON: Yes, Elex. It is absolutely something we should be concerned about. The Iranians have a basic strategy. They are very asymmetrically oriented. And, you know, if they can't hit you head on in a conventional military sense or a conventional intelligence sense, they're going to use other tactics. And among those tactics are those sleeper cells that you mentioned. That is a real threat.

We don't know exactly how many sleeper cells there are in the United States, but there are some. They usually concentrate in the larger cities among the Iranian diaspora. So Los Angeles would be one area where there's a high likelihood of that kind of activity being around. Other things that they could do is mount a propaganda efforts and to do things like that. They could also attack sites in Western Europe which is a high likelihood of happening.

And then you also have cyber activities. So those are the kinds of asymmetric things that the Iranians could do. And we should expect that kind of activity because they have practiced that kind of activity and they have a history of doing that in other countries.

MICHAELSON: But just real briefly, to wrap up, we don't know of any of that happening so far. Right?

LEIGHTON: That's correct. We do not have any indications that anything like that is going on right now, but I -- but, you know, about, you know, my last month's paycheck, that something of this is going on and there's planning on their part that is -- that has already occurred and maybe in the process of being executed.

MICHAELSON: Cedric Leighton, appreciate your wisdom always. You've been so excellent throughout the last few days. Really appreciate it.

Stay with CNN for new developments on the war with Iran. A lot happening as we speak.

Up next, my exclusive interview with Senator Raphael Warnock here in Georgia today.

[00:20:02] What he has to say about what's coming in the days and hours ahead in the Senate floor.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MICHAELSON: Welcome back. As the White House prepares for what it calls a major uptick in attacks on Iran, it's trying to justify the strikes to U.S. lawmakers. Trump administration officials briefed the top congressional leaders called the Gang of Eight. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was satisfied that the massive military operation would be, quote, "limited in scope and limited in objective."

[00:25:00]

The top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee says the administration is not sending a consistent, coherent message about its end goals. Vice President of the United States J.D. Vance explaining what he says are the president's motivations during this interview with FOX News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JD VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He wanted to make sure that Iran could never have a nuclear weapon, and that would require fundamentally a change in mindset from the Iranian regime. So he saw that the Iranian regime was weakened. He knew that they were committed to getting on that brink of a nuclear weapon, and he decided to take action because he felt that was necessary in order to protect the nation's security.

Whatever happens with the regime in one form or another, it's incidental to the president's primary objective here, which is to make sure the Iranian terrorist regime does not build a nuclear bomb.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Now while reporting here in Atlanta today, I spent the day with Georgia's U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock. He was touring this spot, a massive warehouse that ICE wants to turn into a detention facility for illegal immigrants. That town is concerned that there isn't enough infrastructure, as you see here, for that. There are a lot of concerns about that.

We'll have more on that story later in the week. For now, though, we want to bring you our conversation about the war with Iran before he headed back to Washington.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON: Is it a good thing that the supreme leader is dead?

SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-GA): Two things can be true at once. This was a brutal dictator. I don't like dictators. I don't like authoritarians. I don't particularly care for people who want to be authoritarians. And so the world is better that Khamenei is no longer there to brutalize his people. I think the question that many of us are asking right now is, at what

cost? What will this mean in American blood? We've already seen four American soldiers have lost their lives. The president has already said that there will likely be more. He has already called it a war. And so there are a whole range of questions. War is not something you enter into haphazardly. So far I have not seen a plan.

MICHAELSON: And President Trump's style on so many fronts is basically, do what you want and then maybe ask for forgiveness, maybe not even ask for forgiveness. Where do you think -- he's done this now. Where do we go from here? What do you want to see next in Iran?

WARNOCK: Donald Trump said that he was going to deal with the high cost that Americans were paying at the grocery stores. And he said that, you know, he was not going to spend our time in these wars. He's done just the opposite.

MICHAELSON: But what do you want to see in terms of our troops, in terms of a path forward with what's happening there? Where do we go?

WARNOCK: We need to have a debate about this. Again, the world is better off without Khamenei. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I'm clear about that. But the president said just months ago that he set their nuclear program back by years. How is it that now all of a sudden we have an immediate threat, that they would be a nuclear threat, that this is immediate, that this is imminent? There's a huge --

MICHAELSON: You think that's a lie?

WARNOCK: There's a huge difference between telling me months ago that you've obliterated their capacity. That was his word. Obliterated.

MICHAELSON: Right.

WARNOCK: Set them back years. And now all of a sudden we have an imminent nuclear threat. Which is it? The public deserves answers. And the Congress has a responsibility to have a debate and a vote on this. Weve seen time and time again, this is how Donald Trump behaves. My question really is, where are my Republican colleagues on this?

MICHAELSON: Right.

WARNOCK: Do -- are they going to continue just to give away their power, or are they going to represent the people and the people's interests?

MICHAELSON: I think because there is a vote this week. What is your message to your Republican colleagues? And do you know of any Republicans that are going to stand up to this?

WARNOCK: So far we've seen no plan for what the president is planning to do. We've seen no explanation for why this is an imminent threat. And here's what I know. Americans are weary of endless wars in the Middle East. We've been told before that this will take a few weeks, and we'll be in and out. And the cautionary tales around that are not ancient history. They're very recent history. The bruises of which people are literally carrying in their bodies right now in real time.

The Middle East is a complicated place. And part of what we've got to ask ourselves is, are we going to see increased regional stability as a result of this? Or are we going to see a region that's even more unstable than it is right now?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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MICHAELSON: Our thanks to Raphael Warnock, senator from Georgia.

Now to the Republican side. Earlier, I spoke with Republican House member Pete -- Pete Sessions. I asked him what he thought about the potential for U.S. boots on the ground in Iran. Here's what he told me.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. PETE SESSIONS (R-TX): I do not think that, at this time, I see where that is necessary. Now, you would say to me, "Well Pete, what are you going to prove the next three weeks?"

Well, in the next three weeks, we'll take out the last of the -- of the -- the will that they have to fight and send proxies around the world. We will run down -- run down and hunt down those people that are left.

We will use that with the people who are in -- in Iran right now who want to see a new and brighter, better day, not just for the world, but for themself, also.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Our full interview with Congressmember Pete Sessions, Republican from Texas, next hour here on THE STORY IS.

Coming up next, though, we have seen mourning for the ayatollah and dancing in the streets of Tehran. Just ahead, the mixed reactions to the U.S. and Israeli campaign that is reshaping the country and the region.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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MICHAELSON: As U.S. and Israeli airstrikes hit Iran, voices from inside the country reveal a conflicted mix of hope and fear. Some are celebrating the death of the supreme leader and the damage done to the regime. Others are worried about growing civilian casualties and what comes next.

CNN's Jomana Karadsheh reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): If I die, I'm OK with it, if that leads to the destruction of this regime.

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As U.S. and Israeli bombs started raining down on Iran --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What? What? What?

KARADSHEH (voice-over): -- a woman who says she's in the Southeastern city of Kerman shared this rare audio recording from inside the country.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: U.S. strikes have begun, and I feel like I should record a video to say, thank you, Mr. Trump. First of all, thank you, Benjamin Netanyahu and the people of Israel. The responsibility of this war is on the Islamic Republic.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): While this voice by no means is representative of a country of more than 90 million people, over the past six weeks, we have been speaking with Iranians inside the country who oppose the regime.

Many told us they wanted President Donald Trump's help. They were desperate, they said, after the bloody crackdown on protesters in January that killed thousands.

But with a massive bombing campaign, reports of rising civilian casualties, including scores of schoolgirls killed and hospitals hit, the mood is shifting, even for some of those who want nothing more than this regime gone.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): People are not happy. Many police stations are located next to homes. Last night, they struck one, and nearby homes were damaged.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): The regime's repression and disruption to communication make it difficult for us to speak freely with people inside Iran, but we managed to get some text and audio messages.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We were happy that those who had shot at the people, at the youth, and killed them were being punished.

The situation now is a mix. There's happiness, but also concern. And above all, we all hope that, in the end, they leave and that the Islamic Republic is no longer there.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): Video this weekend showed celebrations on the streets as news broke that the man who'd repressed them for more than 40 years, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is gone.

The killing of Khamenei does not mean the end of this regime, for now. It's lashing out and striking back hard. And inside the country, it seems it fears another uprising.

In Iran's Kurdish region, some people received this message. "The enemy's plan," it said, "will be," quote, "street riots next. Any movement that disrupts security will be considered a direct cooperation with the enemy and will be faced with the strong fist of the IRGC intelligence organization."

So many Iranians want to believe that freedom is within reach, that this is the beginning of the end of a four-decade nightmare.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): You always think the Islamic Republic is finished, and suddenly, from a place you wouldn't expect, everything becomes OK for them again. That scares me.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): After the initial euphoria of this weekend as the help Iranians were promised finally arrived. Now for many, the reality that this may be a long and costly war is starting to sink in.

Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON: Joining me live now from Washington is Benham ben Talebu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Thanks so much for being back with us here on THE STORY IS.

What do you expect to see in the next few hours?

BENHAM BEN TALEBU, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF THE IRAN PROGRAM, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: A pleasure to be back with you.

Well, certainly, we expect to see an escalation of the joint Israeli and American strikes against the Islamic Republic's missile and military facilities. In particular, I think both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had mentioned that the bombing would escalate, that there would be something more impactful, shall we say, coming.

And if we're looking at the evolving U.S. air strategy right now, it is really shifting to trying to sink the subterranean Iranian missile bases, potentially render them inaccessible to Iran's missile forces. Because it is those missile forces right now that are doing the bulk of the fighting, whether that's against the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to Iran's South, U.S. bases in the region, or by firing medium-range ballistic missiles against Israel.

MICHAELSON: You are so well-connected with people in Iran. Obviously, right now, it's hard to communicate with a lot of people. But what are you hearing from people who live there?

BEN TALEBU: Well, it is harder, and there has been a little bit of an Internet disruption, starting about six to eight hours, really peaking at 12 hours after the commencement of the war and also co-terminus with the story of Khamenei's death, the supreme leader's death, coming out and being confirmed.

But there really is jubilation and felicitation to the news of Khamenei's death. It is pouring over into social media. It is coming through in dribs and drabs of voice notes and texts. But ultimately, the Iranian population, their eyes are trained on the skies. They've been waiting for this, but they're also hoping that there's no premature end. You know, it does very little to help an Iranian protestor if a missile base in Yazd is struck or a missile base in Khorramabad is struck, if you are a protestor in Tehran, the capital, or Mashhad, the second biggest city in the country.

The Iranians are hoping for the success, largely, but not exclusively, for the military mission against the missiles, such that the targeting against the apparatus of repression can begin.

And there is a slight fear -- and I would emphasize slight, but it is real -- that Washington, once it finishes this mission, may pull back.

MICHAELSON: I mean, to that point, Washington has been hesitant before to actually go for the supreme leader. What do you make of the fact that they did this time? Are you surprised that the U.S. and Israel have gone as far as they've gone?

BEN TALEBU: Well, it really was surprising, perhaps most of all to the supreme leader and those in his immediate environs, because they had calculated that America and Israel would not strike during the daytime. They had some pattern analysis of U.S. and Israeli strikes that it would be during a certain period of nighttime.

And the fact that these meetings were still being held above ground as there was still talk of a potential military action just goes to show you either the lack [SIC] of poor planning or even, dare I say, hubris that existed.

But the way that war began, with really, the decapitation of the regime, getting the commander in chief of a country, targeting a sitting state leader in a very successful military operation and being able to confirm that with imagery on the ground, intelligence imagery on the ground, that just goes to show you how penetrated this regime was.

And perhaps, when it comes to America and Israel's military capabilities, never say never and perhaps have some hope that they might push all the way. But hope is insufficient as a strategy.

MICHAELSON: Who's most likely to lead Iran next?

BEN TALEBU: It depends a great deal on the nature of change. And here, I want to stress, it's not just the Islamic Republic falling; it's more a matter of how the regime falls that could set the predicate for what comes next.

I think there's three models every American should know about. There's evolution, there's devolution, and there's revolution.

It's my view, personally and professionally, that the revolution model is the only one that is compatible, in the short medium and long term, with the U.S. national interest. But I'm fully transparent that that's the one that is bumpy. That's the one that actually has, you know, a fair amount of support

for exiled opposition, including exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. His is really the only name that's been chanted in iteration after iteration of nationwide anti-regime uprising.

Admittedly, those were the uprisings that have been shut down, and in January violently shut down in an unprecedented way.

Evolution is something that the regime might try. They might try to do musical chairs at the top to lure Trump into accepting a Venezuela- like option. But the challenge there, of course, will be these guys have an ideology. They may not be inclined to work with Trump, especially given the damage that he's been able to do to their regime.

The devolution model is the one that everyone has to be concerned about, and that is, basically, turning the country into a failed state and not caring about the political process that could come next. Because after all, this is the Middle East, and the trend line in the region is things can always get worse, not better.

[00:45:03]

MICHAELSON: Yes. And we'll see about the attention span for President Trump to focus on this region and how long Americans will be willing to focus on this region, as well.

Benham ben Talebu, thank you so much for your insights, live in Washington for us late tonight. Thank you so much.

BEN TALEBU: Thank you.

MICHAELSON: The war with Iran is starting to push global oil prices up. We'll look at what's driving the increase, how bad things could get, and most importantly, how much could it potentially cost you when you go to fill up your gas tank? Ahead, on CNN.

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MICHAELSON: And that war with Iran is taking a toll on energy markets. Oil prices spiked to their highest levels in eight months on Monday.

Right now, crude oil trading near 73. Brent crude is climbing to more than $78 a barrel. Analysts say those prices are likely to keep rising if ships are forced to keep avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.

That narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is the main route for shipping crude from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. About 20 million barrels of oil pass through that strait every day. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will target any vessels passing through the strait.

Joining me now to talk about it is Ryan Patel, senior fellow at the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University, joining us from back home in Southern California.

Ryan, good to see you. Welcome back to THE STORY IS. What's next for oil prices?

RYAN PATEL, SENIOR FELLOW, DRUCKER SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT AT CLAREMONT GRADUATE UNIVERSITY: Well, I mean, I've got to address what happened today, right? You know, the rise today doesn't necessarily mean a structural supply shortage yet. But you mentioned it. What does this mean by the markets?

I think you saw oil, because the traders are now pricing in the risk that these energy routes could be disrupted. And because of that, the supply chain, that becomes a real tightness in the infrastructure. You will start feeling it.

You mentioned the crude pricing right now on a 70 to $71 a barrel. You know, if that stayed over the next couple of weeks, you know, the U.S., you know, Americans could face anywhere from 10 to $0.30 more per gallon if it stayed there.

And so, I think that's where we're starting to see the shift from earlier during the day to now, to see where the bounceback is happening.

MICHAELSON: People of a certain age remember the 1970s, and they remember gas shortages in the U.S. during a time of conflict with Iran. Are we anywhere close to that?

PATEL: Yes. No, I think we're really early to that. I mean, I think I would probably, you know, compare it to, as of right now, you think of the Gulf War in the '90s, you know, that oil surged when the conflict began.

But the markets understood that supply would continue to flow when prices stabilized. You know, it's just -- it's a reminder, because we are in day one or day two in this that market -- markets price fear first, fundamentals second.

And another thing I want to give example is in 2022. The energy spike of how oil feeds into inflation, too, expectations. Because I know, if you're going to ask me this yet, but that may be the next time we chat, that will be a concern, as well. Should this kind of be at that moment, as well?

MICHAELSON: What do you think about inflation?

PATEL: See, this is my fault for bringing it up. I mean -- I mean oil, historically, when it comes to this pricing, it then, if I have to break it down, it will then provide consumer confidence to go down.

People will spend less money, which then affect the GDP of certain countries. And then what does that do? That means less people wanting to spend. Inflation starts to rise. I can keep going down that route, but that goes back to the cycle where many of these examples, even where you mentioned the shortages, it occurs. MICHAELSON: The potential problems in Iran actually hurt other

countries more than the United States, more. Talking about China or Russia or other countries that may be more dependent on that oil.

PATEL: I mean, the GDP overall, like, I mean, I think maybe many are not talking about it. So, I think that's a great question is that do get affected this.

We are interconnected. And energy and oil, obviously, in the Middle East is super important to not just -- especially in that region, but overall where people get supply.

The question becomes -- and we've seen this in the past -- is that do you have enough supply, should this strike out, to be able to help your consumer citizens at home to -- with the price index?

You can't obviously full -- you know, people can't afford this at an all-time high. So, your reserves, do you use your reserves? to certain countries do that. That becomes a little bit of a -- of a game for each of the countries to manage their own supplies now.

MICHAELSON: And what a game that is. Ryan Patel, high stakes in that. Thank you so much. Appreciate your insights.

In the next hour, well take you live to Doha, Qatar. CNN's team on the ground there has witnessed explosions in the last 24 hours. We'll have the latest from that part of the region as CNN's breaking news coverage continues.

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MICHAELSON: Anti-war protests erupting across the U.S. on Monday as demonstrations begin to ramp up following the military operation in Iran.

Protests took place in several cities, including Boston and Chicago. And New York City protesters also expressed their skepticism, questioning the administration's motives for launching the war.

Pro-war demonstrators held a rally in Times Square in favor of the U.S. strikes on Iran. They say the Iranian people want freedom from the Islamic regime.

That's it for this hour of THE STORY IS. The next hour of THE STORY IS starts right now.