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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Israel Launches Large Scale Strikes on Beirut Suburbs; Uncertainty Over Strait of Hormuz Amid Attacks from Iran; IEA to Release Record Oil Stockpile Amid Iran War; Prices Surge at Kuwait Fish Market Due to War with Iran; U.S. Investigating Iran's Alleged Plot in California; China, Iran's Economic Lifeline, Closely Watching War; Trump Claims Iran War Victory; Gavin Newsom in War of Words with Trump Over Dyslexia. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired March 12, 2026 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[00:00:00]

LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Was everything all right?

LARRY DAVID, ACTOR: Yes. Good job.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thanks. Because you didn't leave a tip. And usually when I've excellent service, my customers like to tip me.

DAVID: Well, there is an 18 percent tip included. Generally, I do leave an additional tip. But you know what? I'm kind of protesting the additional tip. I don't -- I don't care for it. No.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're protesting.

DAVID: Yes. Let them charge me 20 percent. Let them charge me 25 percent. I'd rather be charged at 30 percent tip included, than have to add up 18 percent to 20 percent or 25 whatever.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not that much. It's 2 percent.

DAVID: It's hard to get to 2 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COATES: That's it. That's all I had to say. Just a little bit Larry David. Have a great show.

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, it's too much math. Too much math.

COATES: Too much math.

MICHAELSON: All right. Laura Coates, thank you. Have a good night. THE STORY IS starts right now with breaking news.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

MICHAELSON: I'm Elex Michaelson live in Los Angeles. It's 9:00 here on the West Coast.

And THE STORY IS in Iran where it's morning. And we are now entering the 13th day of the war. President Donald Trump is claiming victory, even as we're learning of new strikes across the Middle East.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We've won. Let me tell you, we've won. You know you never like to say too early you won, we won. We won the -- in the first hour it was over.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: So the president's comments at a rally in Kentucky coming on the same day that we're seeing this image. Two foreign oil tankers ablaze in the waters off Iraq after Iran claims it launched an attack. At least one person was killed, dozens rescued. In the last few hours, there's been a fresh wave of attacks across Gulf states. Meantime, Israel said it has begun a large scale wave of strikes on Beirut's suburbs after Hezbollah fired what the IDF says were dozens of rockets from Lebanon.

Amid all of this, President Trump again offering mixed messaging on the war, which the Pentagon has revealed has cost at least $11 billion in the first six days. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: You just said it is a little excursion and you said it is a war. So which one is it?

TRUMP: Well, it's both. It's both. It's an excursion that will keep us out of a war. And the war is going to be -- I mean for them, it's a war. For us it's turned out to be easier than we thought.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Of course why he's saying that is because only Congress can declare war. He hasn't asked Congress to declare war, which is why he's hesitant to use the word war. Meantime, sources briefed on initial findings of an investigation say the U.S. accidentally hit an Iranian elementary school, likely due to outdated intelligence. Iranian state media reports that attack killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers.

CNN's Ivan Watson is following developments. He's live in Hong Kong.

Ivan, Israel launched major strikes on Beirut overnight. What more do we know about what's going on there?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The conflict on the Lebanon-Israel front is only expanding right now, Elex. You had the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah, according to the IRGC, Iran's IRGC announced a coordinated attack on Israel on Wednesday, where Iran fired ballistic missiles. The Hezbollah militia in Lebanon fired attack drones and rockets coordinated on Israel. And we saw some of the impact of the Hezbollah rockets, for example, in the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona.

An Israeli commander confirmed that this did appear to be a coordinated attack. And that's all the more remarkable because given how much the Israeli intelligence has penetrated communication networks of both Iran and Hezbollah, the fact that these two allies can still coordinate at this stage in the war, it just shows how sophisticated their response in this conflict has gotten thus far. And it's all the more remarkable when the official position of the government in Lebanon is that Hezbollah's military activities are illegal.

Listen to what Lebanon's justice minister said to our own Christiane Amanpour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADEL NASSAR, LEBANESE JUSTICE MINISTER: Today what Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law, in full breach of the commitments of the government towards its own population, its own people, to stop having a parallel movement, making decisions regarding war and peace, and engaging or dragging the full country into regional conflicts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: And so many civilians caught in the middle of this, Elex.

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According to the Lebanese government, at least 800,000 Lebanese people displaced. The bombardment is hitting in different parts of Lebanon and claiming lives. There was a strike on the Beirut waterfront that appeared to be very targeted on cars, killing at least seven people and wounding more. And it's all the more dramatic because on the beaches and the waterfronts, that's where displaced people are having to camp out or sleep in their cars.

So bystanders being hit by this. The southern suburbs of Beirut hit. Central Beirut was hit in the past 24 hours. The town of Aramoun hit, and there are not places for people to go. They're packing into apartments or hotels, and some of those are being struck as people try to run. The European Union has committed $115 million in aid to Lebanon, and at least 570 people have been killed.

Meanwhile, the conflict across the Gulf also continues to expand with Iran showing coordinated attacks on the energy infrastructure. We saw two oil tankers struck by what Iran said were underwater drones off the coast of Iraq, with special fire boats deployed from the port of Basra to help try to put these out. We saw an Iranian drone strike a fuel depot in a port in Oman. All of this combining to add to the mounting economic costs that this war is having, not only on the region but on the wider world -- Elex. MICHAELSON: So, Ivan, you mentioned this. Where are the people of

Lebanon supposed to go? Are there nearby countries or anybody that's welcoming them?

WATSON: There are tensions with Syria right now, and the Syrian military has built up forces on the border. There are tensions within Lebanon, Elex, because there is huge distrust for the predominantly Shiite population moving out of the south of Lebanon and southern Beirut and other communities. Christians and Sunni Muslims and Druze are much less welcoming to these displaced people, fearing that if they move into their communities they too will come under Israeli strikes.

So that is adding to the tension in the society. And add to that, you have the Lebanese government saying, hey, Hezbollah's actions are illegal. They haven't consulted with the government or the rest of the country, and they've ordered the security forces to take action against them. The security forces have stopped thus far because they are consist of, in part, Shiite Muslims who tend to large parts of them support Hezbollah.

And there are fears that if they move on the militia that that could trigger a repeat of the civil war that tore the country apart for 15 years in the '70s and '80s. It's very complicated, very messy, and also very scary.

MICHAELSON: And very dangerous for a lot of those people who are essentially sitting ducks with no place to go right now.

Ivan Watson, thank you for your reporting from Hong Kong.

Joining us now live is retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and judge advocate, General Sean Henseler.

Thank you so much for being with us. Another big part of this story is the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we know, is about 20 percent of the world's oil goes through there. Does or Iran or anyone else actually have the right to block that?

CMDR. SEAN HENSELER (RET.), U.S. NAVY: So the answer is no. As a matter of law, no nation has a right to basically block the Strait of Hormuz. I think as a matter of fact, at the moment the IRGC, through their statements and through their actions, would suggest that they do have a legal right to stop it. And they are actually taking actions to do so, as seen by the attacks today, and as seen by the announcements that you must receive permission to go through the strait. And if you don't receive permission, you're going to be attacked.

However, I think the consensus in the world would be that that strait is actually what's called an international strait and that international strait entitles the rest of the world to go through in what's called transit passage, continuous and expeditious in the normal mode of operation. And so these neutral merchant ships have every right both under the law of naval warfare, the law of armed conflict, and the law of the sea convention to transit the straits to conduct trade in the region. MICHAELSON: So we know sometimes there are rules, but if the rules

aren't enforced, the rules don't really matter. So who can actually enforce this? Who can tell Iran that the strait has to stay open? And does it help if it's like a neutral country like China?

HENSELER: Yes. No, that's a great question. I mean, you know, most people, when they think of somebody violating the law that there's some entity that has the jurisdiction to arrest you and bring you in front of a court, and the court is going to make some type of ruling in your favor.

[00:10:06]

That's not the way international law works in this regard. Really nations have to enforce the law. So I would say right now the United States is telling Iran that you don't have the right to close the Straits of Hormuz. Not only are we saying that, but by our actions, basically trying to take out anything that might be able to come out and reach out and touch a merchant ship were doing that.

However, I do agree that if other nations around the world, neutral nations in particular because everybody benefits from the Straits of Hormuz being open, and everybody is hurt by the damage to the world economy when the oil is -- can't flow freely. So neutral nations to include China or to stand up and say, this is unlawful, this is illegitimate. You're setting a precedent that we don't want to ripen into customary international law, that might put pressure on Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz.

There may be in the near future a neutral Navy that has an idea that maybe they want to escort merchant ships through. We'll see. And then what I would say, though, is this conflict doesn't end just because the United States or Israel says combat operations are over. I would not be surprised if Iran were to try to keep the Straits of Hormuz closed. And by closed, I mean the risk is so high that merchant ships are unable or unwilling to go through. And I think that might last for a very long time.

MICHAELSON: I mean, do you think that is a smart tactical approach by Iran, that this is the best leverage they have over the United States, over Israel, over the world economy? The Strait of Hormuz? Is that the best thing they've got?

HENSELER: I think from a strategic standpoint, not a tactical standpoint, from a strategic standpoint, putting economic pressure on nations around the globe I think is a point of leverage that they feel that they have not only in the short term, but in the long term. I believe that they're going to have an inventory now and be able to continue to threaten the Straits of Hormuz by any number of means for quite a while and as been shown in the Bab al-Mandab when the merchant shipping industry doesn't feel safe going through and the insurance rates are too high, they're just not going to do it.

So I do think from a strategic standpoint that Iran is making a, you know, maybe arguably a smart move. It's not a lawful move, but it arguably is a smart move. MICHAELSON: But it's a move that likely costs you and me and everybody

watching right now, money, every single time that they're going to go fill up their gas tanks, and we'll have more on that in our next segment.

But, Sean Henseler, thank you for staying up late for us and offering us great insights live from Rhode Island. And thank you for your service to our country.

HENSELER: Thank you very much.

MICHAELSON: Now to the weather. Millions of people in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are currently under a tornado watch. Tens of thousands without power. The storm prediction center says damaging wind gusts and hail are possible. Look at that radar. A lot going on. The U.S. National Weather Service has confirmed that a tornado with maximum winds of about 150 miles, tore through a town about an hour south of Chicago on Tuesday. You see what's left behind here.

Tornadoes have also caused severe damage, and other midwestern states, including the destruction seen here in Iowa. The storms have killed at least two people and devastated some small towns in Indiana since Tuesday.

The FBI is warning about a potential Iranian plot to fire drones at targets right here in California. Still ahead, how would Iran even position its drones close to the Golden State, and why the plan is believed to be only aspirational. Plus, we'll look at China's evolving role in this war and new A.I. videos on Chinese social media that are mocking the U.S., President Trump and Bibi Netanyahu.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:18:32]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from various national petroleum reserves around the world which will substantially reduce the oil prices as we end this threat to America and this threat to the world. We don't want to leave early, do we? Huh? We got to finish the job, right?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: President Trump there touting an agreement for a historic release of crude reserves due to the U.S. war with Iran, arguing this will keep oil prices in check. Just a short time ago, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel again just days after it hit a four-year high. The International Energy Agency, made up of more than 30 countries, has agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market. As part of that effort, the U.S. released more than 170 million

barrels starting next week, though, the process will take roughly four months.

Live now to CNN is Mike Valerio tracking all of this from Beijing.

Mike, a lot of activity, these countries trying to do something to stop the panic.

MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Something but is it enough? And I mean, the analyst consensus that we hear from banks, be it in Beijing or Hong Kong or New York for that matter, is that it's probably not going to be enough because it's such a herculean task. So to put this in perspective, 400 million barrels, that's about 26 days of output of oil that comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:20:05]

So, as you said in our little introduction to this segment, it's still going to take time for that effort to materialize. And when the totality of it, 400 million barrels equals around 26 days, the question arises, what else can be done? And that's certainly something that traders in this side of the world are asking themselves.

If we look at the markets here, declines are pretty moderate, just a moderate pullback that we're seeing from Tokyo to Seoul, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hong Kong around this neck of the woods. So we're looking at 1.76 percent decline in the Nikkei in Tokyo is what I'm seeing on my real time screen right now. The picture is better. Cost being sold down 1.32 percent. Again, we were seeing declines around 5 percent or 6 percent when traders were more of in a panic mindset on Monday into Tuesday.

But, you know, Elex, as part of our morning, we talked to analysts, traders, economists from the region, I was speaking with Alicia Garcia-Herrero, who is the chief APAC, Asia-Pacific economist for Natixis, a French bank. She's based in Hong Kong. And, you know, she was telling me that from her point of view, the bank's point of view, it seems as though traders are seriously underestimating the risk that is playing out when we're looking at the pictures of the two tanks on fire off the coast of Iraq.

That is certainly showing that Iran has the capability to launch attacks, be it by boats laden with explosives, certainly beyond its borders, even though the president of the United States is saying that the war is over. So there certainly is a concern among analysts that even though oil is still hovering around $100 a barrel, it's going into the $90 range, and it's not reaching crisis levels as of yet, that this situation could certainly get worse -- Elex.

MICHAELSON: Yes. And we look there at that number right beside you, over 100. Last week when we were talking to you, it was at 80.

VALERIO: Yes.

MICHAELSON: So it's interesting to see that continue to rise, which is not good news.

VALERIO: Right.

MICHAELSON: If you got to drive a car, not good news. If you got to fly on a plane, which needs a lot of oil and gas, and all the rest of it. So, Mike, we will stay on top of it. Thank you for joining us live from Beijing.

Now, the war with Iran has made navigating the Persian Gulf region especially dangerous. CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson spoke with fishermen in Kuwait about how the war has made their business more competitive, but also more treacherous.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR (voice-over): In Kuwait's fabled fish market, the afternoon auction is just beginning. Action here far from normal. These fish hauled from Gulf waters now at the fulcrum of Iran's war. The catch down as fewer fishermen venturing out under barrages of incoming Iranian missile and drone fire.

The biddings have been pretty fast and furious here, and talking to people as they walk away with their bags of fish, no one wants to talk to us and say this on camera, but what they're telling us is that the prices they're going up.

(Voice-over): Outside the harbor is unusually full. The Kuwaiti government is dialing back fishing permits and telling those they do let out to stay close to home. These waters have rarely been this dangerous. Iran is 50 miles away across the open sea, the Strait of Hormuz about 500 miles south.

"We don't leave Kuwait's waters and that helps us feel a bit secure," this fishing captain tells us.

Could you see a little more tankers out there?

(Voice-over): When I asked about the usually plentiful oil tankers crowding the waterways heading to the Strait of Hormuz, he tells me, "We don't see any. There are none out there anymore."

Kuwait is being hard hit economically and militarily. More than 240 ballistic missiles, almost 450 Iranian drones so far. Oil facilities, airports, government buildings among the targets. Four For Kuwaiti service personnel and an 11-year-old girl killed, more than 90 people injured, according to the Kuwaiti government. Six U.S. service personnel also killed here and three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets accidentally shot down by apparent friendly fire, according to CENTCOM.

This hobby fisherman telling me the war is the worst he has seen here since Kuwait was brutally invaded by Iraq in 1990.

[00:25:07]

At his angling club all 350 boats out of the water banned from the sea by the government.

KHALED AL-OZAINA, FISHERMAN CLUB HEAD: We need to go to the (INAUDIBLE). We cannot go because maybe something is happening out there.

ROBERTSON: An explosion or a missile or something like this.

AL-OZAINA: Yes. Yes.

ROBERTSON: So it's very dangerous still.

AL-OZAINA; It's dangerous.

ROBERTSON: How long will this last now?

AL-OZAINA: Maybe one week, maybe six months. Seven months.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): The relative calm at the Gulf shoreline here belying the furious military campaign still active above and on its waters, further out to sea.

Everyone here is hoping the ballistic missiles, the drones stop soon and their lives can get back to some kind of normal. The hard reality on the Gulf here, unless the Straits of Hormuz are open, Kuwait and so many other of the Gulf countries are being held to ransom, they can't do business the way they used to.

Nic Robertson, CNN, Kuwait.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON: Nic Robertson, thank you.

The FBI says Tehran may have a plan to hit back at the U.S. over its strikes in Iran. Still ahead, details of a potential plot to fire drones at California, which officials describe as a long shot.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: President Trump says U.S. officials are investigating unverified claims of a possible Iranian plot to strike the U.S. homeland.

[00:31:20]

Earlier, California Governor Gavin Newsom said the FBI alerted state officials about potential drone attacks targeting his state.

The FBI memo said that the drones could be fired from offshore boats and that Iran has allegedly been looking into the possibility of conducting such an attack since last month.

One law enforcement source says the information has been deemed to be only aspirational. Newsom told us earlier on a press event that there is no imminent threat. For more, we are joined by retired FBI supervisory special agent

Richard Kolko from Fort Myers, Florida. Thanks for being with us once again.

No imminent threat but -- but the idea of an FBI warning, how should people interpret that?

RICHARD KOLKO, RETIRED FBI SUPERVISORY SPECIAL AGENT: They should interpret that as government doing its job. The FBI got information. They work with the Joint Terrorism Task Force, which is made up of numerous agencies, and they have a responsibility to share this information with the law enforcement and intelligence community.

In reality, this one's probably not vetted that high. But in this time and era, they have no point -- no choice but to share that information as widely as possible.

MICHAELSON: This idea of drones launched from a ship off the coast of California, how plausible is that? How would that even work?

KOLKO: Highly unlikely. It would have meant Iran had the ships heading this way or already had them located off the West Coast. The U.S. government, the Navy, Coast Guard, other means, certainly would have the ability to locate those ships and identify them and inspect and board them if necessary.

So, highly unlikely that that occurred. But it is possible. And we talked about aspirational. And you and I spoke in the past about inspirational attacks.

Don't forget: there's a large Iranian community throughout California, and some of them are likely sympathetic to the regime.

So, the concern there is inspiring somebody to do some sort of attack. And as we've seen over the last few years, warfare has changed. We've seen this in Ukraine, where cheap, inexpensive drones can cause a lot of damage, kill people, and something as simple as that could occur anywhere in the country.

MICHAELSON: Well, in fact, more Iranians live in Los Angeles than any other city outside of Iran. It's a very significant part of the population here.

We know that the local and state government has not always had the best relationship with the Trump administration. When there is a warning like this from the federal government, what does that look like? What do the state, local, and federal officials actually do?

KOLKO: Well, the Joint Terrorism Task Force coordinates this information among the multiple agencies. You go into the different -- different JTTFs, perhaps Los Angeles FBI has probably 50, 60, 70 agencies that participate in the Joint Terrorism Task Force, just a few of them full-time, but many of them part-time.

And then what happens is they -- as they gather information, they share it they vet it, they make a call. In a different time, somebody might have said, this isn't enough to send out. But right now, with the country at war, people are certainly concerned. So, they are going to probably almost lower the level where they're going to send the information out. So, they determined this needed to be shared.

We heard from the governor earlier, and he said this was shared with law enforcement throughout the -- throughout the state. That allows them to take the appropriate steps and precautions, talk to their community, see if they've got any ongoing cases, check with any sources.

The federal government will check with the national security agencies to see if there's been any electronic communications or phone calls, inbound or outbound, that talk about any of these types of preparations or attacks. And then they could take the steps that are necessary to help protect citizens.

[00:35:07]

MICHAELSON: It is interesting, the decision right now what to share and what not to share. And obviously, that is more art than science at this point.

Richard Kolko, thank you so much for sharing with us all this valuable information. And I feel a little better now, as a West Coast resident, after listening to you tonight. So, thank you for that.

China, of course, is one of Iran's trusted allies, and they are closely watching what's happening with this war.

Right now, viral videos are emerging on Chinese social media, mocking the U.S. All this comes ahead of a highly anticipated summit between the U.S. and Chinese leaders.

CNN's Will Ripley has a closer look at the role that Beijing is now playing in the war.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In China, this A.I.-generated video shows president Donald Trump trying to make Iran's supreme leader disappear, but instead, his son pops up, a not-so-subtle jab at the United States.

Another viral video goes even further, this one shared by Iran's embassy in Beijing, untouched by China's army of online censors, implying President Trump started the war to distract from the Epstein files; showing a U.S. missile bombing a school.

Then, showing the destruction of American military bases, aircraft carriers, and the Israeli prime minister's compound.

Across Chinese social media, the message is blunt: America started this war. Publicly, President Xi Jinping's government is striking a more diplomatic tone, calling for restraint. China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, says, "This is a war that should never have happened, and a war that benefits no one."

China has long been Iran's economic lifeline. Beijing buying most of their oil exports despite years of U.S.-led sanctions. And now, U.S. officials say they're watching signs Beijing could soon provide more crucial financial support to Tehran.

The war is shaking global energy markets, oil prices surging to four- year highs, attacks threatening shipping routes in the Middle East. For China, the world's biggest energy importer, that's a serious risk.

But strategically, Beijing may also see opportunity as the two superpowers compete on the world stage, with the CIA putting out these official recruitment videos brazenly and openly luring Chinese officials to spy for the U.S.

Analysts say a prolonged war could pull American attention and military resources back to the Middle East and away from Asia, allowing China to flex its military muscle around Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and disputed islands near Japan, without U.S. Interference.

RIPLEY: All of this is unfolding just weeks before a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, a summit in Beijing expected to focus on trade, technology, and the situation here in Taiwan.

For China, the war shows the limit of its clout and ambitions in the Middle East but it also gives Beijing another chance to present itself as a force for peace and stability, in stark contrast to President Trump's America.

Will Ripley, CNN, Taipei.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON: Will, thank you.

That war with Iran is changing political calculations ahead of this year's crucial midterm elections. We've got one of our favorite political panels standing by right now, Dave Jacobson on the left, John Thomas on the right to break that down.

Plus, this fight going on between Governor Newsom and President Trump about dyslexia. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:43:33]

MICHAELSON: President Trump once again claiming victory in the war with Iran. He made the comments while on his first two-state trip since the conflict began late last month.

The events in Ohio and Kentucky intended to give the president a chance to focus on his domestic achievements, but talk turned to events in the Middle East.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We've won. Let me tell you, we've won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won the -- in the first hour, it was over.

We did an excursion. Do you know what an excursion is? We had to take a little trip to get rid of some evil, very evil people. They're very strong. You know, they were going to try and take over the whole Middle East.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: I think what an excursion is, is when you don't want to ask Congress to declare war.

Joining me now is Dave Jacobson, a Democratic strategist, co-founder of J and Z Strategies. And John Thomas is a Republican strategist and managing director of Nestpoint.

Welcome, gentlemen. Good to see both of you.

DAVE JACOBSON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thanks for having us.

MICHAELSON: I mean, that's really what an excursion is, right? I mean, it's a war, but you can't call it a war.

So, what do you make of the politics of this? Because we have seen really low approval ratings for President Trump taking the country into this military conflict, which is different than what we've seen in the past when presidents take the country into war.

JOHN THOMAS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I think it's because much of President Trump's base doesn't want any kind of foreign entanglements. And so, the president was asking his base to trust me on this one. It's going to be fast. We're going to win and get right back to "America first" policies.

So, it is a little bit at odds, especially with some people in the Republican base -- the Tucker Carlsons, et cetera -- that just are anti-war at all -- at all turn.

[00:45:12]

But look, there still is a large portion of President Trump's base that says, You did a great job in Venezuela, and we're giving you some leeway and trust here that you're going to finish this job quickly and get back to America.

MICHAELSON: So, you're saying the Democrats are never going to like him, but he doesn't even have all the Republican support on this, which is why that number is -- is low?

THOMAS: And that's the -- that's the issue. MICHAELSON: Typically, in the past, when we were less partisan, you

would see the country sort of rally behind the president. But the Democrats don't have that sort of goodwill towards President Trump, right?

JACOBSON: Well, I think that's the fascinating dynamic with this race [SIC], because when George Bush went into war in Afghanistan, according to Gallup, 90 percent of Americans supported that war.

Less support, but 72 percent of Americans, according to Gallup at the time, supported George Bush's -- George Bush's war into the war in Iraq.

Now, you've got a dynamic where you have a president taking America to war, where more Americans oppose it than support it. That's jaw- dropping, and it's unprecedented in American history.

MICHAELSON: Of course, we had 9/11, which a lot of people felt like there needed to be a response.

JACOBSON: Different circumstances.

MICHAELSON: And there actually was a debate in Congress on both of those and an authorization of military force. So, there was a different part, and it was actually declared as a war.

Interesting. Axios has a story up called, "Inside the GOP Meeting to save the House."

And the GOP all got together and talking about strategies of what to do to win, John. And there are certain words that apparently you're not supposed to say anymore, including the idea of mass deportation.

Do you agree with that? Do you think the war, potentially, could be a negative for you, for you guys?

THOMAS: When you're talking just about elections, messaging -- I mean, Dave gets this -- messaging matters and how you frame things matter.

Look what happened on DHS is we started to lose control on the Republican side of the narrative. President Trump closed the border. That was a great thing. And Americans broadly want violent criminals deported.

And so, what President Trump's saying is, let's focus on the things that we know hit the Richter -- high on the Richter scale and de- emphasize things that are creep on the message.

MICHAELSON: But it's interesting. Mass deportations was such a part of the message. I mean, I remember standing on the floor of the RNC as people were chanting "mass deportations."

THOMAS: Sure.

MICHAELSON: Holding up signs that said, "mass deportations." That's been part of the strategy. What's the Democratic message?

JACOBSON: Well, I think the challenge for the president, particularly on the war, is he was the guy coming in saying an end to all war, all foreign wars, or endless wars. And lower costs.

And what did he do? He started a war that literally is rising costs.

Oil is now almost $100 a barrel. And the question is how long is that going to last? Right?

Simultaneously, you've got Democrats winning back-to-back special elections. According to Down Ballot, Democrats have won the last ten special elections of flips from red to blue.

Republicans have not flipped one seat from Democrat to Republican since President Trump has been in office.

At the same time, NBC just put out a poll. Sixty percent of Americans believe that Trump is failing on the economy and the cost of living.

THOMAS: But here's what's interesting about what I just heard Dave say. He's right, but I haven't heard any message other than you're not Trump.

Democrats really don't have a message that they're running on. That's actually a fascinating thing. They're riding the coattails of being against Trump and being against the party in power. The reality is I do --

MICHAELSON: Is that -- is that enough?

JACOBSON: It very well might be. Like, I'm literally doing races across the country where we are polling and fighting back against Trump and standing up to ICE is the No. 1 issue. It's right up there with affordability and tackling the affordability crisis.

But fighting back against Trump is red meat for Democrats. That's why we're winning these races.

MICHAELSON: Certainly, in a place like California, that -- that seems to be the case.

Speaking of California, President Trump talking about Governor Newsom and his book tour. Governor Newsom, in his book, writes a lot about the fact that he's dyslexic, something that he's struggled with from the time he was a very small child; that he struggles to read a teleprompter; and it's difficult for him in certain situations.

President Trump sort of mocking that. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: He admitted he has mental problems, that he's not a smart person, that he is mental -- a mental lack of ability. He's unable to read a speech. He can't read. And I was attacked by a reporter that said, Well, what's wrong with that?

I said, Nothing's wrong with it but I don't want the president of the United States to have a cognitive deficiency.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: So, Governor Newsom spoke about this himself on S, saying, "I spoke about my dyslexia. I know that's hard for a brain-dead moron who bombs children and protects pedophiles to understand."

So, tough words there from -- from both of them. What do you make of the politics of this?

JACOBSON: Well, talk about mental disabilities. I mean, Donald Trump on June 21st said that he completely obliterated Iran's nuclear facilities. And one of the reasons, the justifications for going to this war was to go after the nukes. So, just raising that question.

[00:50:04]

I mean, listen, in terms of the politics for Gavin Newsom, anytime he and Donald Trump are in a back-and-forth food fight is a win for Gavin Newsom as he heads into the 2028 presidential contest.

He's been recently at either No. 1 or No. 2 in polls, because he's leading the charge in the fight back against Trump. It's a message that's connecting with Democrats all across the country. That's why he's leading in the polls.

MICHAELSON: Is the idea of sort of mocking somebody with dyslexia, smart politics?

JACOBSON: Disgusting.

THOMAS: Look, that's classic President Trump. He can't help himself.

But the issue that's going to haunt Gavin Newsom is going to be his record, not his disabilities.

But this -- Dave is right. This is a gift from the heavens for Gavin Newsom right now. He needs to have a back and forth with Donald Trump and remain relevant. So, the more the president's talking about him, you know, Gavin's high-fiving his team, going, This is great. The president's tweeting about me.

MICHAELSON: Well, and he just went on this big book tour. He's still continuing. We just showed some images of that.

I mean, the book, he really gets into some very vulnerable spaces, talking about his affairs, talking about his mother's assisted suicide, talking about his complicated relationship with his father, talking about his inability to read and being bullied.

And I asked him during a press conference today what that has been like for him: going on the road, talking to people around the country and these big crowds about this very personal stuff. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: I'm curious how that experience of opening up in this space has maybe changed you as a as a man, and maybe the experience of talking about it maybe has changed you as a leader.

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM (D-CA): It's been pretty extraordinary, particularly talking about single moms.

From single moms that come up to me after I talk, and talk about their own experiences with their mom, or the moms themselves. And it's very emotional, particularly with mothers that show me their kids.

They could be 40 or 50 years old. They can be 5 or 6 years old. And -- and literally tearing up and -- and it's just, you know, it's a wonderful and cathartic thing to talk about people as people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: I mean, the challenge for him, Dave, sometimes has been -- is that people don't necessarily relate to him. And he talks about that in the book.

They see the slick hair, the expensive suits.

JACOBSON: He's from California.

MICHAELSON: The whole thing, the California, the wine, the French Laundry, all the rest of this. Is this helping him politically to relate to people? Is it changing the dynamic for him?

JACOBSON: I haven't read the book. I bought it. I'm going to read it.

MICHAELSON: It's a good book.

JACOBSON: OK. However, I do think that this is a smart strategy if you're campaigning for president in 2028. Work out the kinks early. Be an open book. Open yourself up to those vulnerabilities. Have those conversations early.

So, that when voters are laser focused on the 2028 presidential contest, we are beyond that, right? So, I think that's sort of the play of getting out early in this campaign.

MICHAELSON: Yes, and he wrote this book actually years ago, and it's kind of been sitting there.

THOMAS: Right. And I think the mom play is really actually quite brilliant, because a key demographic in the Democratic primary are white, single women.

JACOBSON: No doubt.

THOMAS: And so. for him to have something that he can relate to, that corner of the base on is going to be useful for him as he positions himself for a presidential.

MICHAELSON: And I know not everything is cynical in politics. I mean, I think there is some genuine moments there.

THOMAS: Well, what we do is we -- we like to find truthful things and then highlight and -- and put those to the forefront.

JACOBSON: Yes, right.

THOMAS: And I -- these seem to be truthful things. He was raised by his mom.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

THOMAS: And so, he's drawing attention to that, rather than him in posh wine parties and with the Gettys.

MICHAELSON: Well, because he lived these two very different lives. Most of his time, he lived with his mother, who struggled financially.

And then he spent time with his father, whose best friend was one of the richest guys in the world, and went on these crazy expeditions around the world. And he went back and forth throughout his life, which is interesting.

THOMAS: To me, that's the danger, is how does he get defined when he pushes off for president? Does he get defined as that Getty posh, privileged Gavin Newsom? Or does he get defined as somebody who battled his own internal demons and got raised by a single mom?

JACOBSON: I think that's the point, is he's testing the waters with this early book tour. I think it's smart strategically.

MICHAELSON: Who do you think is the toughest Democrat that you could face right now?

THOMAS: It's not Gavin Newsom. I -- as a Republican, I' d love to run against Gavin Newsom. I think his record fails when put to the test. And it may be popular to be anti-Trump, but I don't think the candidate --

MICHAELSON: Who is it?

THOMAS: Well, and I think --

MICHAELSON: Who's the toughest, though? Who would be the toughest Democratic nominee?

THOMAS: I don't know that that candidate has emerged yet, honestly. I haven't been terribly impressed by the field. But if your entire basis for being is being anti-Trump, and when Trump's not on the ballot in '28, I don't know what to say.

MICHAELSON: Who's the toughest Republican to run against?

JACOBSON: Well, let me just say, I think Gavin's challenge right now, because he is leading in most of the polls, is he does not want to be Howard Dean. Don't peak too early. You've got to sustain that momentum throughout.

I mean, listen, I think the real question is like, is it going to be a MAGA sort of food fight between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio?

Or are you going to see, like, someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene come in from, you know, out of hiding, I guess?

And -- and the critique that -- that MAGA movement and have a real debate among Republicans, is this the direction? Do we want more doubling down of MAGA, or do we want to go in a different direction?

[00:55:02]

MICHAELSON: Yes, it's a long time before we start that. And who knows what's going to happen between now and then.

JACOBSON: Maybe not that long.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

JACOBSON: We're going to get there soon.

MICHAELSON: Dave Jacobson and John Thomas, great to see both of you. And clearly, we're already ready for that -- that debate --

THOMAS: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- here on THE STORY IS. We'll be back with more right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MICHAELSON: It's a big weekend here in Southern California, as many in Hollywood gather to celebrate the Academy Awards. And a new CNN documentary looks at the influence of international films on the industry.