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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Too Early to Call; Armed Man Arrested at California Gold Course Ahead of Trump Visit. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired August 05, 2026 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[00:00:39]

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Elex Michaelson, live in Los Angeles. Welcome to a very special edition of THE STORY IS.

It's election night in America, my favorite night of the year. It's another busy primary night with five states holding races to determine who will face off in the November midterm elections with control of Congress at stake. Voters have been casting ballots in Missouri, Kansas, Virginia and Washington state. But much of the attention of the country right now is on the battleground state of Michigan.

It's still too soon to tell who will win the state's Democratic Senate primary, a closely watched showdown between progressive Dr. Abdul El- Sayed and Congressmember Haley Stevens. This race seen as another major test of the future direction of the Democratic Party as a whole. Whoever wins this nomination will face off against former House Republican Mike Rogers, who ran virtually unopposed after an endorsement from President Trump.

We've got team coverage from around Michigan, but we begin with CNN's chief national correspondent, John King, at the magic wall in Washington.

John, a lot of people thought this race would be called by now.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This is Michigan, Elex, and Michigan, if it's consistent, it's consistent for one thing, counting votes slowly. But we are getting there. And one of the reasons you might have thought maybe we need them all to call it, but it's a relatively close race, although Dr. El-Sayed has stretched it out a little bit. Nearly a 30,000 vote lead. You see it right there, 50 to 47.

If you're rounding those up about 64 percent or almost at two-thirds of the vote, sometimes, though, we get late into the morning, I call it breakfast menu time. when Wayne County, especially Detroit, comes in.

So what are we waiting for? If you look at the map right now, the dark blue is Haley Stevens. She's the Democratic member of Congress, the establishment favorite, as you said. The light blue is Abdul El-Sayed, worked for Bernie Sanders in 2016, helped him write his book about Medicare-for-all, has written his own book about Medicare-for-all. He's the light blue on the map there.

So you see them slugging it out county by county. El-Sayed has now stretched it out to 33,000 votes at 65 percent. The question is, at this point of the night, what are you waiting for? Right? So let's just bring this up down here. The bubbles tell you places where we're still waiting. Outstanding votes. Right? And the size of the bubble tells you that you're waiting for more votes. Let me stretch this out just a little bit. The largest bubble there and it's dark blue, meaning Haley is winning that area at the moment is Detroit, Wayne County, metropolitan Detroit, the largest population center in the state, Elex, and of course, the center of the Democratic base. Right?

I was just checking some of the precincts with my team here. Dearborn, Dearborn Heights coming in there. There are Arab American communities coming in overwhelmingly for El-Sayed. Haley Stevens is doing better in some of the black areas of downtown Detroit. As of a few minutes ago, only 30 percent of the Detroit City votes were in. So we got a lot to wait for in Detroit.

What else are we missing? You see these circles. If you're Stevens, you see that big circle knowing so much is missing in Detroit. That gives you hope because that's more math, if you will. But if you see El-Sayed has some circles as well as you come out, I just want to blank this out for one second. As you watch this play out, if, Elex, if El-Sayed can pull out a win here, he's leading right now, one of the stories will be, especially if Haley Stevens holds on to this lead in Detroit, is in some of the smaller cities.

This is Ingham County, is Lansing. That's the state capital. Look at the margin right here, 63 to 32. Now we'll come out here, Kent County. Sorry. People are getting dizzy. You have to come in and out to do the wall here. Kent County, that's Grand Rapids and the suburbs around it. Again, look at the big margin there. I'll just give you one more so I don't give people whiplash. Kalamazoo down here.

Kalamazoo County, again, look at the margins. In the big city, Detroit, Haley Stevens right now has a pretty healthy lead and that matters because it's the largest city. But in some of the smaller cities, you see Dr. El-Sayed doing quite well. But in the end, Elex, as I toss it back to you, I'm just going to check one more time. We're at 49 percent in Wayne County, which means we have a ways to go. And there have been times when it's sometimes 3:00, 4:00, 5:00 in the morning when we get more votes out of Wayne County.

So at the moment, Haley Stevens winning in Wayne County, which again is more votes than anywhere else you're going to get. But Dr. El-Sayed stretching that out a little bit, 33,000 and change as we get to the two-thirds mark. But guess what? That last 35 percent is going to decide who wins.

MICHAELSON: Well, it sounds like it's going to be a long night, which is why we have a three-hour show ahead.

John King, at the magic wall, an honor to have you start off our show tonight.

KING: Pleasure to be here.

MICHAELSON: We've got team coverage in Detroit.

[00:05:02]

CNN's Arlette Saenz is with the Dr. Abdul El-Sayed campaign. Jeff Zeleny is at the Haley Stevens campaign. Let's start with Arlette. And it sounds like its loud behind you.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it is. They actually just came on stage to try to rile up supporters as they are waiting to hear from Abdul El-Sayed. A campaign aide came over the speaker and said that they do expect that El-Sayed will speak tonight, regardless of whether there is a call in this race. They said to expect him to speak by 1:00 this morning. They've asked their supporters to stick around and you can hear them now engaging in this singing chant to try to keep people engaged.

I talked to someone who went to a bodega down the street to get some food. So they're preparing for the long haul here. But this is a race that right now the campaign is watching very closely as these results continue to pour in. They had expected, they had hoped that this might have been called a bit earlier in the evening. But throughout the day, they did acknowledge that Wayne County is often very slow in their vote counting.

So we do know that El-Sayed is here in the building. He's been watching these results pour in with his family and his advisers. And one campaign aide told me that they are still feeling confident, even as there has been this tightening in this race. They are really hoping to show that the progressive movement does have momentum here in a battleground state like Michigan. We've seen success in very blue areas like New York City and areas like Denver for progressive candidates, and they are hoping to replicate that success here in a much more purple state.

I will also note that a few moments ago, when they showed Republican former congressman Mike Rogers on the screen behind me, this crowd erupted into very loud boos. They are very focused on the need to unite in order to defeat Rogers no matter who the candidate will be. El-Sayed has said that he would be willing to campaign for Stevens if she did emerge as the nominee, and she has said vice versa.

And that will really be one of the challenges after this Democratic Party is whether the party can, in fact, unite after what's been an incredibly divisive contest over the last plus -- over a year.

MICHAELSON: Yes. I mean, interesting song choice right now, Arlette. "Say a Little Prayer," which is an interesting thing based off of what's happening. But, Arlette, just to just to nail this down, what you just said, we expect Dr. El-Sayed to speak within the next hour regardless?

SAENZ: Yes, that is what a campaign aide came over the speakers to tell the attendees. They said that they do expect them to speak no later than 1:00 in the morning Eastern Time. They said if the race gets called sooner, that he could come out a lot sooner. But right now they're trying to keep their focus on keeping these supporters engaged. So they have some people here for when he comes out later this night.

MICHAELSON: All right. Well, they're saying a little prayer and -- where Arlette is.

Jeff, what's going on where you are? What's the mood? And are people feeling enthused at this point?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Elex, there is no question that Haley Stevens supporters had a long early part of the evening. There were some glum faces, upbeat moods, but they were resigned to thinking that this may not go their way. That turned around about 10:30 or so here in the East, when a big batch of absentee ballots came in. And again, for all the nationalized focus of this race, it's hard to think of a Senate primary that's been more nationalized than this.

This is a very local race at this point. All about Detroit, all about Wayne County. So the Stevens campaign is keeping a close eye on that. She is winning Wayne County. But the question is, will the margins be enough to offset her shortcomings elsewhere? We don't know the answer to that yet, and it's unclear if she is going to address her crowd or not. You can see behind me, very few people here, but there are still a lot of people just off to the side of this ballroom.

So we are standing by to see if she is going to say anything. But again, I was just speaking a short time ago with former Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, and she reminded me that in her victory to the Senate, it wasn't called until the next morning about 10:00 a.m.. So this is very common and typical for Detroit and Wayne County. But Haley Stevens was clearly at the end of this campaign not running with the energy that Abdul El-Sayed was. But what these results make clear is this is a much closer race than anyone expected.

And even if he is the winner, this shows that there are many people in this state, particularly African-American voters right here in Detroit who did not find his message appealing. So he has even more work to do should he win to unify this party. Again, Stevens supporters are still somewhat optimistic, but, again, it is a bit of a caveat.

[00:10:04]

One aide told me just a short time ago, he said, we can still win this if we pull out a strong turnout in Detroit, but that is an if. So we will see. But this certainly was not the overwhelming showing that many progressives had come in here to Detroit hoping for, Elex.

MICHAELSON: Jeff Zeleny, thank you for that. We will go check in with you. And we've got music from Detroit in both places. Let's go straight to our political panel for the night. Joining me

here in Los Angeles is Ron Brownstein, senior political analyst and opinion columnist at Bloomberg, former Congress member Katie Porter, former candidate for governor and for senator from California. She was the first Democrat elected to represent California's 45th Congressional District. And Matt Klink is a Republican strategist and owner and president of Klink Campaigns Incorporated.

Full house tonight. Lots to talk about.

Ron, let's start with you. And so far, reason to keep watching.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. I mean, you know, the late -- we did not have high quality public polling, independent public polling at the end. But the kind of mish mash of polls that we had, most of them from the El-Sayed camp had him way ahead, you know, 15 to 20 points ahead. And look, I mean, if you look at the base of support of each of these candidates, it's very consistent with what we've seen in other primaries around the country that have had this kind of left center divide.

He is relying, even though he styles himself as an economic populist, not really winning that many working class voters, relying primarily on college graduates and young people. So college graduates turn out in primaries. Young people are a little iffier, and her coalition is what, you know, we used to call -- we used to talk about as the beer track coalition of the Democratic Party, seniors, black voters, non- college whites.

Maybe a little bit more reliable voters, which probably explains part of the problem with the polling, maybe overestimated how many young people would show up. It still looks like his hand is a little better, but there are some pretty clear warning signs for him in terms of these results about what a general election might look like.

MICHAELSON: And Congresswoman, you say this is sort of the representation that maybe X or Twitter is not real life.

KATIE PORTER, FORMER CALIFORNIA HOUSE DEMOCRAT: Yes. I mean, I think you saw so much enthusiasm on the internet for Abdul El-Sayed. He's very charismatic. He's been running a podcast. He's -- let's face it, he's good looking. He's enthusiastic. He's new in office. You know, Haley Stevens has been in Congress eight years and she's being styled --

MICHAELSON: Started with you.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

PORTER: She started with me. And she's being styled here as the establishment like career politician. And so I think, you know, you saw a lot of enthusiasm about El-Sayed as a new voice. And that is, I think, good for the Democratic Party. But I think Democrats are also with Trump, with so much at stake, saying to themselves, I want to know what I'm getting. I want to know what someone is going to do. I want the person who's shown they can win in Michigan in the past.

MICHAELSON: Yes. How do you see the numbers so far, Matt?

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: If I were Dr. El-Sayed, I'd be a little worried right now that I think that his campaign got a -- they started to drink their own Kool-Aid, and I think that it's a heck of a lot closer. And I think that, you know, your reporter Jeff highlighted it, it's going to be the spread in Wayne County. He won't win Wayne County, but it's the spread. If it's a big spread, it's not going to be a really bad night for him.

But he did run a good campaign. He ran on three issues -- less money in politics, more money in your pocket, Medicaid-for-all. That was the answer to everything.

PORTER: Medicare-for-all.

KLINK: Medicare-for-all. Excuse me. He ran -- I mean, that was his answer to everything. And I think that's -- it's easy to remember what he stands for.

PORTER: And look, those are three winning issues, in my opinion, for Democrats. And those are issues I ran on when I won in a purple Orange County, and didn't just win my primary, but went on to beat the incumbent Republican. So I actually do think El-Sayed is going to pull it out here. And I do think that the fact that he picked those issues, as opposed to some other progressive issues, will put him in a good place when he has to pivot to the general election.

MICHAELSON: Last word, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: If he is the nominee, we will see whether Medicare-for- all, a government run, single-payer health care system can be sold in a swing state, which we haven't really tested before. But I will say the starkness of the divide in their coalitions, and you look at the counties, either one wins, they're going to have a lot of work to do to knit together the Democratic Party.

(CROSSTALK)

MICHAELSON: And if he wins, selling that to the Senate and getting 60 votes for that.

BROWNSTEIN: That's not happening. That's not happening.

MICHAELSON: Is very challenging. He says he --

PORTER: That will make this election look easy.

MICHAELSON: He says he's going to do it on day one, and good luck with that.

All right. Katie, Matt, Ron Brownstein, all sticking with us. So we'll get back to you.

Still ahead, also, an armed man arrested at one of President Trump's golf clubs just days before the president's visit. What we know about the incident, which happened here in Southern California. We will go to Las Vegas for an update on that. Plus, we continue to follow Michigan's election results.

[00:15:01]

We'll break down what's going on. New numbers constantly coming in throughout the night.

Stay with us for more on this very important election night.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MICHAELSON: As we continue to follow election results and we await speeches from both Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, we're going to get some other news in, including this. Authorities here in California announcing that they arrested an armed man outside of President Trump's golf club in Southern California on Sunday, just two days before the president visited.

[00:20:01]

The L.A. County Sheriff's Department says federal agents reported a suspicious person taking photos and videos and appeared to be monitoring security planning activities. The suspect pleaded not guilty to weapons charges on Tuesday. The Secret Service is investigating whether the man posed an actual threat.

President Trump landed in California Tuesday evening to attend a Republican National Committee dinner at his Rancho Palos Verdes golf course. He has now left Southern California. He's in the air right now, on Air Force One, headed to Las Vegas, where he's set to give a speech in the coming hours.

Let's go live to CNN's Kevin Liptak. He's arrived in Las Vegas ahead of the president.

Nice view in your hotel room, Kevin. Let's start with news from President Trump. Just within the last hour, he made some comments on Iran on FOX. What did he say?

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's interesting because he was actually asked about that man who was arrested in Rancho Palos Verdes, and he sort of pivoted immediately to Iran. I think in his mind, he always has in the back of his head this assassination plot that we know the Iranians have had in mind for quite some time now. And so when he was asked about the arrest, he pivoted almost immediately to Iran and talked about the state of the negotiations that we know are underway right now.

Now, President Trump insists that the U.S. is talking to Iran. Iran says that they don't know what he's talking about. They say that they're talking to the Omanis. You know, the Gulf country that's on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. And they're discussing a plan to try and get that open. And it's clear the president, on the one hand, believes that that diplomacy is proceeding. And he seems fairly optimistic that they will come up with an agreement to reopen that waterway soon.

You know, he was just talking when he was getting on Air Force One, and he used the timeframe of 48 hours. So he seems relatively optimistic that that deal to reopen the strait is happening very quickly. But at the same time threatening this major retaliation if the Iranians walk away from the negotiating table again. Listen to more of what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Iran, as an example, never have a nuclear weapon. They already can't. But it's going to be formal. The strait is going to be open very soon, or they're going to get hit very hard, and then the strait is going to be open. And we were going to a tremendous attack, the biggest since World War II. And they called me and said very politely, please, can we talk? Can we talk? They didn't want. And I said, yes, we can talk. Let's get it done.

If they back out again, they're going to get hit really hard. You know, they know that. They understand that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIPTAK: So, Elex, the arrangement here where phase one of the deal is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, phase two of the deal, the two sides are going to talk about the nuclear program. That is literally exactly the same as the memorandum of understanding that the president signed back in June. So he seems to be wanting to get back to a memorandum of understanding that he himself said was dead, and that he said that the Iranians negotiated in bad faith.

So where exactly he sees all of this heading once the strait is reopened? I'm not sure he's exactly clear, but the president confident tonight that something could be happening relatively quickly.

MICHAELSON: Interesting developments. It will be interesting to see what he says in the day ahead, or if he even speaks when he lands in Las Vegas. We're monitoring that as well.

Kevin Liptak, with a great view of the Strat and the Strip. Thanks so much for being with us.

Back now to Michigan, where we're keeping a close eye on the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary there. Right now progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed is outpacing the more moderate congresswoman Haley Stevens. That race still too early to call. The outcome will hold major implications for the Democratic Party's identity moving forward, as well as the upcoming November midterms.

The winner will face off against former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers in the fight to solidify congressional majority on Capitol Hill.

Let's go live right now to Lansing, Michigan. That's where Zach Gorchow is joining us. He is the president of Michigan Operations at Gongwer.

Zach, how do you read the numbers so far and what do you know about turnout?

ZACHARY GORCHOW, PRESIDENT, MICHIGAN OPERATIONS, GONGWER: Well, I would say right now, the surprise is that Haley Stevens is doing well in rural areas, that she, at least as of about an hour ago, was leading in many more counties than Abdul El-Sayed. And going into today, a lot of focus had been put on the effort that the El-Sayed campaign had put on rallies and organizing around the state, and a lot of criticism to the Stevens campaign for not doing that.

So to see that she, at least at this hour, is performing I would say above expectations in these rural areas is I think a big reason why this race is so close right now.

[00:25:06]

MICHAELSON: Oftentimes, the national dialogue or nationalization of a race is not what actually is happening when you talk to voters on the ground. There are sometimes themes that get very popular in cable news that are not what people are talking about. When you actually talk to voters, what seems to be driving them?

GORCHOW: Well, I would say that the kinds of things that seem to be driving voters should help Abdul El-Sayed. It's this sense among Democrats that sending kind of your classic competitive candidate, Democrat, like a Haley Stevens, into a general election, somebody who will try to appeal to the middle is not good enough anymore, even if they say they're going to fight President Trump, that they want someone who's a disrupter, a flip-the-table person, and that's Abdul El-Sayed.

So it's a little surprising that this race is as close as it is. I will say, up until this week, this is about what I expected a margin of less than five points. But there was this big -- there is this big turnout surge. We're probably going to have somewhere on the order of 1.5 million votes in the Democratic primary. That's about 33 percent bigger than your typical August even year primary turnout in Michigan.

And one would think, given the El-Sayed organization, that that would have advantaged him, the enthusiasm there. But right now, it's not showing up to the way I would have expected.

MICHAELSON: Fascinating to hear those numbers. And it will be fascinating to hear more numbers in the hours ahead, especially as the Detroit area counts.

Zach Gorchow, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it.

We've got more out of Michigan. We are expecting to hear from both of the candidates, likely within the next half hour. We will carry their remarks live. Stay with CNN to see it.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to THE STORY IS and our special coverage of election night in America.

[00:31:44]

We are keeping a close eye on the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan. We have live pictures right now of both campaign headquarters. You're looking right now. On the left is the Haley Stevens headquarters. On the right, the Abdul El-Sayed headquarters.

We expect the speeches to begin, potentially, at the Stevens campaign any moment now. So, as soon as that begins, we will go to that picture.

In the meantime, Harry Enten, we want to bring you into the conversation. If I have to interrupt you at some point, I apologize --

HARRY ENTEN: I understand.

MICHAELSON: -- in advance for being rude.

But -- but -- but --

ENTEN: You do what you need to do.

MICHAELSON: Take us to the Magic Wall. What are you seeing? What numbers coming in right now?

ENTEN: I mean, truthfully, I did not think I'd be up with you at this hour with this race still uncalled.

Yes, I expected the vote count to take this long, but I honestly thought that Abdul El-Sayed was going to do much better than he's doing tonight.

Yes, he is ahead, 49.8 percent to 46.3 percent. But I was thinking it might be a 5-, 10-point margin. Easy going away. Not the case.

Why is it not the case? Well, it all has to do with one county, in particular. It is Wayne County where Detroit is. We can zoom in on it right down here. And let's see if we can do so. There we go.

And what do we see in Wayne County? We see that Haley Stevens is ahead by 52 percent to Abdul El-Sayed's 44 percent. But more than that, I want you to take a look at this key nugget that I'm pointing out. Hopefully, you can see on your screen there is 53 percent -- only 53 percent -- of the estimated vote reporting.

And if there is still vote in Detroit, that is very important. That could allow Haley Stevens to close the gap.

But more than that, where else could she potentially be closing that gap? Well, I want to go right back to Southeast Michigan, and I want to go right here to Macomb County.

Why is that? Because Abdul El-Sayed is ahead there right now. You can see it by about ten points, 53.4 to 43.6 percent. But again, look at the estimated vote that's in so far. It's only 49 percent of the vote.

Now, if there is still early vote to be counted in that county -- and I believe that there is -- guess who's doing better in the early vote? It is Haley Stevens who is doing better in the early vote.

So, when you're looking at it right now, yes, you see a race, as we look statewide, in which you have Abdul El-Sayed ahead 50 percent, 49.7 to 46.3 percent, but only 71 percent of the vote is in.

And given what's out there in Wayne County, given what's out there in Macomb County, and given that a lot of Abdul El-Sayed's best territories are in, this is a race that is very, very hot at this particular moment and one -- I don't know if you can tell, Elex -- that I'm quite excited to be a part of this evening.

MICHAELSON: Yes, we love having you after midnight. Harry Enten version is even more excited.

And another interesting note that Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out of the race, right now is getting about 3 percent of the total, which could be the difference in this race, as well. It will be interesting to follow --

ENTEN: Could be.

MICHAELSON: -- what happens on that front.

We want to bring back our panel right now. Congresswoman Katie Porter, let's start with you, as somebody who has spoken on a night like this. Haley Stevens, we expect her to likely speak first. How do you think about something like that: going out to a crowd in terms of crafting a message?

REP. KATIE PORTER (D-CA): I think that you usually write three speeches, you write a win, a lose and an "I don't know."

[00:35:06]

And I've only ever given the "I don't knows," because --

MICHAELSON: In California. Yes.

PORTER: But I think that, you know, a lot of this, for the candidate, is just maintaining your energy, maintaining your momentum. It's stressful. Your staff are keyed up. The audience is keyed up.

And I think these are both really talented candidates. And I think they both ran really strong campaigns. So, what I want to see from both of them is an acknowledgment of the democratic process at work, a commitment to coming together after this, to beat Mike Rogers.

And just a lot of thanks to the energy that we're seeing out of Michigan tonight. As a Democrat, I think the energy we're seeing, even if it's being divided relatively evenly between two candidates, is good news.

MICHAELSON: Yes, because Republican strategist Matt Klink, the opportunity for Republicans is if this deep division, the fact that people are so fired up, isn't healed for the fall, that's good news for Mike Rogers.

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Absolutely. You want to hope that Humpty Dumpty cannot put the pieces back together again. I'm sure that the Rogers campaign has ads teed up for both respective winners to highlight the differences in the Democratic Party, and to hopefully drive some of those toward Mike Rogers.

But yes, he -- he shouldn't lose a beat once a winner is declared.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, you and I talked about this before. If you look at all of the exit polls in Trump's first term, in 2018 and 2020, Susan Collins was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger who won in a state where his approval rating was net negative. The only one. Susan Collins in 2020.

In the EPIC-MRA poll that came out a couple of days ago that had El- Sayed trailing and -- and Stevens slightly ahead, Trump's disapproval was 63 percent in Michigan.

So, you know what? It's going to be tough. I mean, the Democratic Party is divided. Either of them has, you know, obvious issues. El- Sayed, rural voters, black voters. Stevens with young people.

But the reality is that Trump's standing has eroded to the point where both of them are going to be competitive.

I mean, you know, it's assured that this is going to be a competitive race. Can Mike Rogers really win in an environment where 63 percent of people disapprove of Trump? Maybe. But again, only one person did it in the entire first term.

MICHAELSON: Mike Rogers couldn't win in 2024 in Michigan, when Trump won.

BROWNSTEIN: Correct.

MICHAELSON: He lost by 20,000 votes to Elissa Slotkin, congresswoman, who is a more moderate Democrat.

BROWNSTEIN: Maybe a more formidable candidate than either of these, though, in a general election.

Porter: Yes, I don't know. I mean, I think these candidates, this has been a tough primary. They have both become, in some ways, more battle hardened. They've been through a lot. They've shown a lot of grit.

You know, Slotkin didn't have to deal with the primary really ever, in her House races or in her Senate race. And so, I think they come out of the primary, both of them, obviously, a little bit tired. They need a little bit of time to recharge, but I think they come out strong, ready to take on --

MICHAELSON: The general election is right around the corner.

BROWNSTEIN: It'll be interesting. I mean, look, you know, El-Sayed has been, I think, pretty openly contemptuous of her. I mean, you know, he said AIPAC looked all over the country and found the least capable candidate, you know, anywhere. He said that this week, while -- while the polling had him 15 points ahead. And she said, you know, he -- she said this week that he blames all

the problems in the country on Jewish Americans, essentially accusing him of -- of antisemitism.

So, there's a lot -- there's a lot of contention here in the -- in the final stages of this campaign.

And as we've all said, they've -- they've divided the baby, really, in half. I mean, they really have --

MICHAELSON: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: -- unraveled the Democratic coalition in the way that Walter Mondale and Gary Hart or somebody would recognize from -- from earlier presidential primaries.

But again, when Trump is in this situation -- same thing in Texas and Ohio and Alaska and Iowa. He's under 50 now in all of those. And in -- again, in his first term, Susan Collins in 2020 is the only Republican who won in a state that he was under 50.

MICHAELSON: And those -- and those are states where you would think that the Democrat would have a harder time. But recent polls seem to indicate that they may not be.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

MICHAELSON: We'll talk about that throughout the night.

We want to get a quick commercial break in, because we expect those speeches to begin at any moment. Stay with us. You're watching breaking news election night in America right here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:43:53]

MICHAELSON: We continue to follow what's happening in Michigan. We have live pictures, and we are awaiting speeches right now from both Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed. They are expected to begin any moment. As soon as they begin, we will bring them to you live.

This is a live picture right now from the Stevens campaign. You see folks cheering there. This is a look at the El-Sayed campaign. He said that he would be out before the end of the hour.

So, as we get closer and as we wait for that, we bring back in our panel right now: Ron Brownstein, Katie Porter, and Matt Klink.

Katie Porter, you served in the House with Haley Stevens, and you said she was your freshman class president. What was she like? What was that experience like?

POTER: I mean, she's a hard worker. She went right out and recruited us all to vote for her, stepped up to be class president, was always willing to reach out to people, members who were having a hard time, whether it was personal or professional. She's a hustler.

And I don't think the fact that she's a moderate or, so you know, people are describing her as a moderate should mask the fact that she's a really hard worker. And she was elected in a class in 2018 that had a lot of energy and a lot of fresh ideas.

[00:45:08]

So, I think to paint her as kind of this, like, part of the gerontocracy is ironic.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

PORTER: She's -- I was -- I was a young member of Congress, and Haley's a good decade younger than me.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, they were born 16 months apart, El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. And they are from totally different political generations.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: I mean, he is, you know, very much a product of the kind of what they describe as the attention economy, politics.

MICHAELSON: He calls himself a podcast bro.

BROWNSTEIN: Right. He sees his job as kind of engaging with the public.

I mean, she is a throwback. I mean, she would be comfortable as a John Dingell or a David Bonior, to pick two names from Michigan, kind of blue-collar, union --

MICHAELSON: Those are the names you do, for our younger viewers.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. John Dingell -- John Dingell and David Bonior were classic --

MICHAELSON: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: -- blue-collar district Democrats who are really focused on kind of lunch bucket issues --

MICHAELSON: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: -- were -- didn't really like to talk a lot in public, were much more happy duking it out in closed doors. Dingell against Henry Waxman for 15 years on the Clean Air Act.

But, you know, Haley, she's a throwback in that way. And I think it --

PORTER: I don't see it that way. I don't see it as a -- as a -- as a generational split. I see it as an access split.

Haley was somebody who came up through -- she worked for Steven Rattner. She worked for the White House. She worked on the auto restructuring.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. She's an old soul.

PORTER: She was connected to a lot of established politicians. She talked a lot when she ran in 2018 --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

PORTER: -- about being part of the Barack Obama administration.

And El-Sayed is an outsider.

KLINK: And that counts --

PORTER: Not -- his family is not in politics. He's -- he's not -- it's a different legacy. So, I don't think it's a generational --

KLINK: And that counts against her right now. This is a change election. And if you are an outsider, that's where you want to be.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

KLINK: And I mean, it happened in 2024. It's happening again in 2026. So, yes, I mean, right now she is on the outside.

MICHAELSON: I guess -- I guess --

PORTER: It's not to say that somebody who's been in Congress eight years --

KLINK: That's a long time, Katie.

PORTER: -- is some kind of, like, lifelong career politician. I was faulted for only serving six years. So, what is it that people think is the right amount?

MICHAELSON: I guess, but there's --

KLINK: Seven.

MICHAELSON: -- also sort of an interesting question, Congresswoman. You thought a lot about what it means to be a senator when you ran for Senate. In terms of what is -- who would be a better senator? I mean, and what is the job?

Because it seems like --

BROWNSTEIN: Different conceptions.

MICHAELSON: -- both of them think of the job differently. And they both would probably be very good at doing the job that they think that they should be doing. But they -- how do they see them -- the job differently?

PORTER: Yes. So, I think two different ideas of the -- the classic sort of older-school senatorial idea is this statesperson -- I don't like statesmen -- but the statesperson. The idea of a compromiser, somebody who will talk, who will do the work.

And I think what we've seen the Senate shift toward, with the filibuster, with -- that's where things -- that's where good ideas go to die from both parties, is at the Senate.

I think we've seen it shift to being a place where individual politicians make noise and -- and affect the electorate and push out ideas that then come back into the electorate.

KLINK: And El-Sayed's a disrupter. I mean, which right now, that's a good thing to be, whether you're in the House or in the Senate. You want to break things, because the system, however you define it, is broken.

MICHAELSON: Well, and the folks, Ron, that are the kinds of members that she's talking about, the bipartisan compromisers, who, by the way, have written almost every piece of legislation for the last 50 years. When things actually got done in the Senate, these are the people that met.

Almost all of them have been either voted out of office --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- or retired because they didn't see a path for them.

BROWNSTEIN: And even if you -- even if you're still there, you're not given the leeway -- you know, John McCain and Ted Kennedy put together coalitions that weren't necessarily supported by the leadership of either side, you know. And you're not allowed to do that anymore. I mean --

PORTER: That's absolutely true. BROWNSTEIN: It just doesn't work.

Now, but -- but, you know, when I say they're -- they're different political generations, even though they're the same age, it's that she does have that conception of the job as someone who kind of rolls up their sleeves and, in a very Waxman-esque way, gets -- gets an expansion of Medicaid that benefits, you know, 10,000 working-class families.

MICHAELSON: Incrementalism, which is how you get just stuff done.

BROWNSTEIN: And he, you know, he is -- he is out there with what I've called the core four of leftist commitments in this election: Medicare for all; abolishing ICE; a wealth tax on assets, not just raising the top rate; and cutting off aid, military aid to Israel.

Now, are any of those things going to happen? No. I mean, they're probably not going to happen. Whether he wins or not.

But, you know, is the value in being out there advocating for them and changing the debate? That's how he would, I think, conceive of the job. And she would say, you know what? I'm going to reform ICE. You know,

I'm going to -- I'm going to restore the ACA subsidies. I'm going to restore the -- the cuts in Medicaid. It's just a very different conception of the job.

MICHAELSON: And young people view this differently, because the way that young people get and comprehend information is more to the point. It's not nuanced, necessarily.

[00:50:08]

KLINK: In 15 seconds, be very direct.

MICHAELSON: Yes. Three --

PORTER: It drops off after three to four to five.

MICHAELSON: So, if you're used to getting a message --

KLINK: I'm a little older.

MICHAELSON: "Abolish ICE" takes two seconds to say.

PORTER: That's right. Medicare for all.

MICHAELSON: Let's do it. Let's -- let's do nuanced ICE reform is not quite the same.

So, we're looking at live pictures. Here comes Haley Stevens. Let's listen in.

And we see hugs right there as Haley Stevens comes out. A night at the beginning of the day that I think a lot of people, her supporters thought was probably going to end in a loss.

Right now, we're at too close to call, an undecided moment, but a chance for her to thank all of her supporters in the room in Michigan and around the country who have donated to her and set expectations for the day ahead. Let's listen.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Haley, Haley, Haley, Haley.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Haley, Haley, Haley, Haley.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Haley, Haley, Haley, Haley.

REP. HALEY STEVENS (D-MI): Thank you. Thank you all.

I know it's been an exciting night. I know it's been a long night, because that's the Michigan way.

But I want to give you all an update. Right? We knew that this was going to be a close race. And that's exactly what we've got: a close race.

We are still waiting on results, and we might not know the results until early in the morning, maybe even later tomorrow. We are still waiting on results from Detroit.

We've got Keith Williams in the House, the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus, and Keith knows we're also still waiting on results from Flint. Muskegon County. Macomb County.

But friends, I am feeling good about this race. I am feeling fired up, and you should be, too.

But I want to talk about the stakes of this race a minute. We've had a long, hard-fought primary, and we'll know soon who our nominee is going to be. And whoever wins is going to go and take on Mike Rogers.

Republicans are going to do everything they can to throw all the dirt, all the mud, the kitchen sink at us, because they want to keep the U.S. Senate red so Mike Rogers can keep rubber stamping Donald Trump's ridiculous agenda: higher prices, a thousand manufacturing jobs lost, nationwide corruption, and abuses of power galore.

They want to keep the Senate red so Mike Rogers can go to Washington again and sell us out to the highest bidder, and make himself even wealthier.

They want to keep --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Boo!

STEVENS: Yes, they want to keep the Senate red so Mike Rogers can ban abortion, gut health care, and roll back workers' rights and voting rights.

Friends, we are not going to let that happen.

So, Michigan, we are not going to know the results for just a little while.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're with you.

STEVENS: And the congresswoman from West Michigan, everybody, Hillary Scholten. She's a mom of two great boys here. And their future's on the line.

So, we've got to get some sleep or get some coffee, and then we've got to be ready to go. We've got to wake up and be ready to go. Because if we are going to win this thing, which we are, we are going to have -- we are going to have to get ready and show Mike Rogers what a little stick-it-to-him looks like.

[00:55:14]

Thank you, friends. See you soon.

MICHAELSON: Haley Stevens there, saying that she's feeling good about the results; that she needs to get some sleep. We're not getting any sleep, though, because we want to see what happens.

So, you've got to stay with this. We are seeing her there with elected members of Congress. Debbie Stabenow there on stage with her, who of course, has been a Democratic member of the United States Senate from Michigan in the past. She's endorsing her.

Gretchen Whitmer also has endorsed her, the governor. Gary peters, the current senator from Michigan, has endorsed her. Most of the Democratic establishment.

So, we are awaiting Abdul El-Sayed. When that happens, we will bring it to you live. We're going to get a quick commercial break in. More election results when we come back.

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