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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson
El-Sayed, Stevens Locked in Tight Michigan Democratic Senate Primary; Trump to Speak on Economy in Vegas; Vance Hosts Anti-fraud Roundtable; Blanche Confirmation Vote Moves to Full Senate. Aired 2-3a ET
Aired August 05, 2026 - 02:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[02:00:20]
ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to an extended special edition of THE STORY IS, I'm Elex Michaelson, live in Los Angeles, continuing our special coverage of Election Night in America.
It's 11:00 p.m. here in Los Angeles. It is now 2:00 a.m. in Detroit, Michigan, where we are following a very close race. It's not the only race of the night. Five states have been holding primaries to determine who will face off in the November midterm elections, with control of Congress at stake, voters going to polls in Missouri, Kansas, Virginia, Washington State.
But right now, so much of the focus of the country is on the battleground of Michigan. More than 85 percent of the votes are in for the state's Democratic Senate primary. We just got new numbers, literally as this graphic was updating. It is still too soon to tell who will win.
Right now, we see Abdul El-Sayed at 49 percent, Haley Stevens at 47 percent. Perhaps more important than those percentages is the actual vote total. Right now, Abdul El-Sayed ahead by about 28,000 votes. Both candidates speaking to supporters within the last hour or so. Here's what some of them or what they said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HALEY STEVENS (D), SENATORIAL CANDIDATE OF MICHIGAN: We've had a long, hard-fought primary, and we'll know soon who our nominee is going to be, and whoever wins is going to go and take on Mike Rogers.
Republicans are going to do everything they can to throw all the dirt, all the mud, the kitchen sink at us, because they want to keep the U.S. Senate red, so Mike Rogers can keep rubber stamping Donald Trump's ridiculous agenda.
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), SENATORIAL CANDIDATE OF MICHIGAN: To build a movement that's even bigger, that's even stronger, that's even more powerful, that reaches into the very depths of this state, that reminds us the best of who we are and who we can be. That is the commitment I want all of us to be making as we leave here tonight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: Joining us now live is CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten. You know it is a special occasion when Harry Enten is up at 2:00 in the morning because there are new numbers coming in, seemingly by the second. Harry, how do we break things down in terms of where we're at right now?
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Elex, I just want to note I was looking at a fake watch on my hand. I have never worn a watch. I am not my father. I am not Judge Enten. I am merely Harold, not Harold. But Harry, not Harold.
But I will just say, at 2:00 in the morning, who really knows here in the East what is real and what is fugazi? But look, here's the situation. I think you pointed it out really quite well, which is it's not just the percentages, it is the raw vote.
We'll talk about the percentages first. What we're talking about is Abdul El-Sayed ahead 49 percent to 47 percent and what we're also talking about in percentages is the percentage of the estimated vote in and how much is left.
The percentage of the vote estimated in, well, we just went up a percentage point. We were at 89 percent. Now we're at 90 percent, and that spread between El-Sayed and Stevens has remained the same, two points.
But more than that, it's the raw vote, as you are hinting at right now. What we're talking about in terms of the raw vote is we're talking about a total, a lead of about 27 -- 28,000, a little bit more than 27,000, right in between the two of them.
Why is that important? Because at its closest point in the last few hours, we got down to a spread in which Abdul El-Sayed was ahead by 22,000. Ergo, the lead in raw vote has in fact been climbing, and that of course is a big problem because as the more votes you get in, you want that gap to be shrinking. It is in fact going up a bit. That is part of the good news for Abdul El-Sayed.
There's a bit more good news. You know we have been talking so much about the great importance of Wayne County, right? Wayne County, it is where Detroit is. What we see is the estimated vote there is also climbing. We are now up to 81 percent of the estimated vote. And when we first starting off, and I was first here waiting to go on, we were in the 50s, maybe the low 60s. Now we're talking about 81 percent of the estimated voted.
More than that, the spread between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed has been closing in Wayne County. Now we're only talking about a four- point spread. We're only talking about 10,000 votes.
[02:05:00]
Now, obviously, if there's more of Detroit to be counted, which we believe that there in fact is more of Detroit vote, she'll do better there. But when you're talking about county-wide, a spread of only about 10,000 votes, and then we're talking about statewide a spread of 25,000 votes.
Well, if there's only 20 percent of the votes still in in Wayne County, it's still to be counted in Wayne County, that is a big problem because that would suggest she'd have to vastly -- Haley Stevens would have to vastly outperform what she is doing so far in Wayne County.
More than that, I want to take you to my favorite graphic. We spoke about it last hour. I was able to hit the button despite the fact that I somehow sometimes have a shaky hand. Let's see if I can do it again. Let's see. Yes, I did it again.
OK, this is the vote over time. You know, before we were talking about the Jaws theme and how it's getting closer and closer and closer. Well, now it's getting a little bit wider, but more than that, my dear friend, I think what's so important to note as we look at the spread over time, Columbia blue, of course, being El-Sayed, and then we have that nice darker, closer to navy blue. I'm not exactly a painter, so I don't want to get the exact shade of blue wrong here.
But what I think is so notable is that the two lines really have never crossed. Abdul El-Sayed has led throughout this entire evening, and as we get up to closer to 89, 90 percent of the vote, you have to ask yourself, is there enough vote out there for Haley Stevens. The answer to that question is yes, but as she's not been able to cross that threshold, I do have to wonder whether or not the math is really there for her, my friend.
MICHAELSON: Well, it's interesting, Harry. As you were speaking, she got closed the gap by 3,000 votes because it started -- when you started speaking, you were around 28,000. Now we're at about 25,000. So, your little, you know, presentation was good for her. So, we'll see.
ENTEN: It's one of those things. We just have to wait and see all the votes to be counted. But again, what I really would like to see, if I'm her, get this thing inside of 20,000 votes. Get it inside where you can get those late votes in from Detroit, and then you really might have something. But until that point, it's advantageous. But again, there's a reason why we haven't called anything just quite yet.
MICHAELSON: I just want to say, Harry, as a Californian, it's amazing that people count overnight.
ENTEN: Who knew? Who knew? (INAUDIBLE).
MICHAELSON: Yes, that we could be getting more numbers because that doesn't happen very much out here. So, we appreciate.
ENTEN: I would just end by saying this, imagine if the election were this close out in California, we might not find out who wins until Hanukkah. That's all I would say.
MICHAELSON: Happy Hanukkah to you and to everybody that's watching, Harry Enten. Thank you so much for all of that.
ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.
MICHAELSON: We want to go now live to Detroit. Matthew Miller, senior reporter with MLive.com, is literally standing outside the El-Sayed event. So, thank you for joining us after being inside reporting.
First, just take us inside that room and sort of the feeling from inside there. And is there disappointment from folks that maybe expected this thing would be over by now?
MATTHEW MILLER, SENIOR REPORTER, MLIVE.COM: Yes, I think there was a lot of impatience tonight. People, you know, Dr. El-Sayed began with a substantial lead in terms of the votes counted, and that lead was just kind of whittled away steadily all night long.
And so, he addressed his supporters at around 1:00 a.m. telling them, you know, taking -- telling them it was going to -- going to have to wait until morning, most likely, and also telling them or taking the time to congratulate them on building a kind of movement that a lot of folks would have said wasn't possible.
MICHAELSON: From the ground, in terms of talking to voters, in terms of your experience out with folks, what was sort of the issue that drove people the most? And is it some of these big national issues, or is it something more local?
MILLER: I think the folks who are most keenly supporting Dr. El-Sayed are people who believe that American politics is broken, that it's so deformed by the vast sums of money that go into elections like this one, that it doesn't -- you know, it's no longer capable of serving the needs of average voters, average people.
MICHAELSON: And in terms of one of the things that he talked about, just to wrap things up, this idea of trying to bring the party back together. We know he has said a lot of things, especially about Haley Stevens, that have been, you know, aggressive in terms of how tall a task is that this idea of bringing the Democratic Party back together.
MILLER: It's going to depend on who wins. Of course, I know that there are folks who are Haley Stevens supporters who have said they would feel uncomfortable voting for El-Sayed. Hillary Scholten, who's a congresswoman from Michigan, has said he, you know, has sort of gave her an un-American vibe, something along those lines.
[02:10:21]
But I think both campaigns at least paid lip service tonight to the notion that the Democrats are going to need to come together to defeat Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, and that whatever their differences are, that they do not -- that their differences with the Republicans are more.
MICHAELSON: Matthew Miller, thank you for reporting after 2:00 in the morning. I know it's been a long day and a long few weeks of coverage, and we appreciate you joining us from outside the El-Sayed event. Our political panel is back, Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political
analyst, opinion columnist at Bloomberg, Matt Klink, a Republican strategist and owner and president of Klink Campaigns Incorporated, and former Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter. All of them with us. Although Ron looking especially good in that shot there, and I think you've got some -- so, we need Ron more face time for that. What you got new information?
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, no, I'm just -- I'm just -- I'm just looking back at the exit poll from 24. You know, there's a lot of focus on whether Democrats can come back together in this race, and you know, given the Trump, the way the Democrats view the Trump administration as an existential threat to everything they care about. Maybe they will. That can't win the race in Michigan. I mean, Michigan is not a state, you can win by base mobilization.
In the 2024 exit poll, Democrats were 31 percent of the voters, Republicans were 34, independents were 35. Democrats will probably outvote Republicans in this election. They're more energized.
But nonetheless, you know, you probably have to win or stay very competitive among independents to win this race, and that is kind of the real issue. If El-Sayed is the nominee, you know, can he reach beyond the kind of the Sanders vision of the movement? And there are strengths in that. He's bringing out a lot of young people. He's going to be very strong with college-educated voters. Can he remain competitive in White working-class Michigan, which is an awful lot of voters?
MICHAELSON: Matt Klink, you're shaking your head.
MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: No, look, I think that Mike Rogers' team is going to carve up El-Sayed pretty good. It's going to be a really ugly race, probably a race to the bottom.
I don't know how El-Sayed can get back anywhere close to middle when you talk about movements and the things that he talks about, he's positioned himself on the fringe of the Democratic Party, and I think that the Republicans are going to drive that home over and over and over again.
MICHAELSON: Congresswoman, Katie disagrees.
KATIE PORTER, FORMER DEMOCRATIC CALIFORNIA CONGRESSWOMAN: It's not the fringe. The man is poised to win in a swing state, it's not the fringe. This is half. Fully --
KLINK: Half the Democrats.
PORTER: Yes, so did Stevens. My point is, so did Stevens. So, you can't characterize it as the fringe when it's fully half in a purple state like Michigan.
I would say to your point about you know Michigan being about a third Democrats, about a third Independents, and about a third Republicans, that's what Orange County was, give or take, when I ran there. And I will just say, I think the biggest myth in establishment
Democratic politics is that swing voters, that independent voters, don't care about things like Medicare for all. They don't care about money, getting money out of politics. In fact, they care more about those things than base Democratic voters, who are often wed to the establishment they have.
MICHAELSON: Well, isn't it also passable, Matt, that he brings out new voters? I mean, a lot of people thought that Donald Trump couldn't win, and then he brought out a bunch of people who were animated in his base, and he expanded his own base.
I mean, couldn't El-Sayed activate people who didn't feel impassioned by the Democratic establishment?
KLINK: It's very expensive to do that. Donald Trump had the money, El- Sayed does not.
MICHAELSON: But does he need it? He just lost. I mean, AIPAC spent against him $70 million.
KLINK: He does, to turn out voters. You need money. Else, he got money spent against him in negative ads. But to get people to educate them and encourage them to turn out, that's very time-consuming and very expensive.
PORTER: Localization is expensive.
BROWNSTEIN: He'll get -- he'll get a solid youth. I mean, if he -- if he is the nominee, he will inspire more youth turnout than she would.
But you know, it's an older state. It's like hard to it's hard to win that way. Ultimately, you have to be competitive with the electorate that exists. A majority of the voters, or at least roughly half the voters in Michigan, are going to be Whites without a college degree. That was not a good constituency for him in the -- in the primary. There are obvious cultural issues defunding the police.
I mean, there's a lot of places Republicans are going to go. Having said all that, just -- I just go back to kind of the basics. Donald Trump's disapproval in Michigan is 60 percent. No Republican won in his first term in a state where his disapproval was that high.
[02:15:06]
MICHAELSON: I mean, part of the conversation, Congresswoman, has been over this concept of electability and some frustration, especially from El-Sayed supporters, that the most electable person isn't always elected. You look at Hillary Clinton, there was talk about her being the most electable, and Joe Biden being the most electable. And sometimes you ended up with a candidate where there wasn't a lot of passion behind them. Is it time to rethink this concept of who is electable?
PORTER: Yes, I hate this concept because I think who is electable is who is actually getting elected. So, you can talk all you want about how you don't think Sayed is electable. Take a look at the number on your screen. He is actually, I believe, tonight, tomorrow morning, going to get elected. And you know what that means? That means he's elected.
BROWNSTEIN: But this is the undercard. I mean, the primary is the undercard. I mean, even the supporters, I was talking today to the person who runs the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, the Elizabeth Warren Group, and they said, look, this is our proof of concept. We've been arguing for years that if you let us -- you give us the nomination with this economic populace in a swing state, we can win. Now we actually have to go out and do it.
And look, and you have Jocelyn --
MICHAELSON: Not in a state like Vermont.
BROWNSTEIN: Not in a state like Vermont, right. Or in a district, you know, the commie corridor in New York City, you know, as they call it. It's not my phrase.
But look, Jocelyn Benson, the governor, is probably going to win substantially.
So, you know, the governor candidate for the Democrats, can he stay within seven or eight points of her if he is the nominee and get by? That's entirely possible.
MICHAELSON: And can you see them campaigning together?
BROWNSTEIN: I can. I can, yes.
PORTER: I can. Both -- they both were very clear. One thing we talked about, their speeches were very different in tone and length. But one thing they both were very strong and very consistent, and I found them both stylistically different, but to be emotionally believable and genuine in saying we will come together to beat Mike Rogers.
MICHAELSON: Yes, and to Mike Rogers, Matt, is the danger for him that he looks like, especially if he's running against El-Sayed, the establishment candidate in a year when people are looking for change.
KLINK: Yes. Mike Rogers cannot run as an outsider. The guy's a former CIA agent and a member of Congress. He cannot run as an outsider.
MICHAELSON: I mean, is that a tough -- is that a tough hand to play right now?
KLINK: It's a very tough hand to play. He has to paint El-Sayed as a kook.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, he has -- who has welded himself to Trump in a way that not a true --
KLINK: Correct. Wait, Ron. What's that stat again you were telling everybody? BROWNSTEIN: Oh yes, no. Look, I mean, yes, exactly. I mean, that is the stat. You know, maybe this is different. Maybe you know, Democrat -- the image of the Democratic Party is weaker than it was in 2018 and 2020 because people were disappointed in the outcomes of the Biden presidency. So, maybe the old rules don't apply. But the -- that was -- that was the pattern.
MICHAELSON: As you talked about often, sometimes Susan Collins has been able to go against the rule in the past, and so, maybe Mike Rogers is able to do that -- to do that and well.
BROWNSTEIN: He even seems to be positioned to do that.
MICHAELSON: Is there also a danger, Congresswoman, in alienating the Jewish vote and in alienating folks that are supportive of Israel, which obviously we know there are plenty of folks in Michigan who are not. It's clear that the AIPAC funding went both ways, and it certainly inspired some of El-Sayed's supporters. But that folks that have voted Democrat for their entire life are saying, I cannot support that.
PORTER: That is definitely a faction. It is there. I think it's a question of how big it is. Voter-wise, it's definitely a significant sort of noise factor and money factor. But I think we have to realize, like, there are a lot of younger Jewish people, progressive Jewish people, whose views about Israel they might not be Sayed's -- El- Sayeds, but they're not Stevens' either.
And so, I think there is an opportunity here for if you know if I think El-Sayed is going to have to be more careful, more thoughtful, more disciplined if he wants to heal that up a little bit and be able to draw in those voters who really are core Democratic voters, but they're worried about where the Democratic Party is going on Israel. I think he has some work to do if he's going to pick those votes.
BROWNSTEIN: I agree with you. Neither one of them are kind of overlapping where the where the center of gravity is in the Democratic Party. She did not move enough. Clearly, I mean, she -- only the most perfunctory criticism of Netanyahu has a five percent favorability rating among Democrats. 80 percent of Democratic voters in Pew have an unfavorable view of the -- of the Israeli government, and she just would not acknowledge that, I think, or kind of, and I think that is a lesson for Democrats going forward. They're going to have to respond to that.
You don't have to go as far as El-Sayed, but to simply kind of stonewall and say nothing is going to change in our relationship, I think, is not attainable.
[02:20:01]
But I will say that the -- what this means for the Democratic Party going forward, this is not the final inning. I mean, if he is the nominee and if Francesca Hong is the nominee, the socialist in for governor in Wisconsin, two of the three states that are absolutely most important to Democrats getting back to the White House in 2028, you know, states that Trump's dislodged from the blue wall.
Whether they win in November, I think, is going to have a big impact on whether the left goes into '28 with a lot of momentum, right, or is it significantly deflated.
MICHAELSON: Because if he wins, then the thought is potentially Bernie couldn't get there, but maybe AOC can. Maybe we have taken over the party.
KLINK: Or Ro Khanna or someone like absolutely push the envelope because they will have some successes.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, if he doesn't -- if he if he doesn't win in this year, I think the left candidate in '28. If somebody is the nominee, the left candidate in '28 is going to face a lot of skepticism among Democratic voters about whether you can really win back the White House.
PORTER: You know, it was Bernie didn't win, Bernie didn't win, Elizabeth Warren didn't win, and here we go again. So, like this movement has half legs. The left kind of more progressive moment.
MICHAELSON: And they were really close with a lot of people pushing against them.
PORTER: Every time.
MICHAELSON: And if you've got a candidate from the left in '28 that is able to sort of clear the path, if that's AOC, probably Ro doesn't run against her. Then they've got a lane all to themselves, and you've got Gavin and you got Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg and everybody else.
BROWNSTEIN: One consultant calls them the Steves. I mean, there's like a whole bunch of them.
MICHAELSON: You know, it's like the equivalent of like Fox News Channel, right? You've got everybody on one side, and then everybody else has got to split up everything else.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, you know, look at the primary. Look at the House races tonight. I mean, the story of the Democratic primaries this year, most systematic conflict between left and center, I think, in modern times, but no clear winner. No clear winner. The center has plenty of wins. Iowa, a Senate, California governor, a lot of the House race. Missouri won tonight. The left has plenty of wins. Michigan seven tonight.
PORTER: At the end of the day, these are still. I think all gets lost. These are still candidate races. We are electing people. We are not electing ideological movements.
BROWNSTEIN: Or concepts, yes.
PORTER: You don't go to the ballot and vote progressive, liberal, moderate. You go to the ballot and you vote for a human being. And I think that's at the end of the day why we're seeing it go back and forth, state to state.
BROWNSTEIN: And the answer is that either side can win at '28. That's what it tells you.
MICHAELSON: We're going to sneak in a quick break. Here's a tease, Congresswoman Katie Porter may be breaking out her whiteboard to do the math on what's happening when it comes to this race. Stay with us. More after this.
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[02:26:36]
MICHAELSON: We continue to get new information from Michigan. You look right now, the total 25,000 votes ahead for Abdul El-Sayed. We want to bring into the conversation right now some new voices for the first time. Joining us is Sara Sadhwani, who is a political science professor, joining us as well, and joining us as for the first time is Washington correspondent with Detroit News, Grant Schwab. Thank you both for being with us.
Grant, as the gentleman in Detroit in this conversation, so of what stands out to you so far in terms of what you're seeing?
GRANT SCHWAB, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, THE DETROIT NEWS: So, I just raced back to my hotel from the Abdul El-Sayed party. What stands out is maybe something you're seeing from afar, but I'll say maybe it bears out in person. The vibe at these parties was different. I was at the Abdul El-Sayed party. You're in this concert hall, sort of dark dance floor, kind of stage up front.
You know, I looked at some of the coming acts. Rapper Vince Staples is going to be there in a few months, and then the Haley Stevens party across town. It's at a more sort of upscale hotel, sort of brighter lights, smaller crowd, and I think it speaks to sort of the vibes of the campaigns that you see from a lot of places.
One is sort of more establishment, establishmentarian, if you will, and then the insurgent sort of progressive party had more of a well party feel to it. So, I'd say that really stood out to me tonight. Just you know, as the returns were coming in.
MICHAELSON: It's very close. There is still a path for Haley Stevens, but the more numbers that we get in, it looks more and more like it may be El-Sayed who wins this thing, Sara. Even though it's a lot closer than what the polls suggested.
If he does, the fact that so much money was spent against him, the fact that almost everybody in the Democratic establishment was against him, and he's still able to win. What is the significance for that not only in Michigan, but around the country?
SARA SADHWANI, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICS, POMONA COLLEGE: Yes, the Democratic Party has got to wake up to the fact that they keep putting money against candidates who are popular with the voters. You know, I was listening to the conversation earlier with your panel,
and there's this back and forth about whether or not this election shows that the Democratic Party is moving to the left, if it's moving to the center, and what we know is there's these candidates all over the country that are -- that are more left, left more progressive. Some are more centrist, and they're winning, and it has little to do with whether or not they're progressive or not. It has to do with their authenticity.
This establishment piece is the part that voters are voting against, And so, the Democratic Party definitely needs to wake up to that fact.
I was in New Jersey recently. Their governor, Mikie Sherrill has nothing in common with Zohran Mamdani, and just up the road in New York City. But they both won not because of a common ideology, but because of their running as authentic candidates, not because of who consultants told them to be. And I think that's a real takeaway from this election, if El-Sayed is able to pull this off.
MICHAELSON: And Grant, if it is El-Sayed, how do you sort of handicap or see this race against Mike Rogers? And speaking to voters on the ground, how willing do you think the Haley Stevens voters are to support Abdul El-Sayed?
[02:30:00]
GRANT SCHWAB, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, THE DETROIT NEWS: Well, you know, in handicapping some of the polls I've seen say that Abdul El- Sayed trails Mike Rogers, but -- by a significant margin heading in. But I want to see them do get out for a few weeks, for a few months before I make any sort of assessment on who is a favorite in this race because I think a lot of people who are tuned out of primaries, all of a sudden you get closer to the general, that's when people start to learn these people's names.
So, you know, in handicapping, I would say, yeah, (ph) I don't know toss up let's let them both try to get to voters head to head assuming Abdul El-Sayed wins. And as for the Stevens voters going over to Abdul, there was a note from Abdul's speech tonight where he talked about coming together, mending fences. He told his supporters not to go out and gloat to say I told you so.
So he really wants to try to build a campaign where they reach more people and they can have a bigger tent. But I asked him about this in person a couple days ago and he said, I'll have anyone who supports money out of politics, Medicare for all and -- money in your -- 'money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all' is his slogan. So he wants to bring in those people and I think it will take a lot of effort for him to do so.
MICHAELSON: And Sarah, in terms of the Democratic establishment, we all can recite his slogan because he says it so much, and we know what he wants to do, even if it is almost impossible to get there with the actual votes that are in the Senate right now. But is there a messaging policy problem for establishment Democrats in terms of having a clear message of what they're actually going to deliver for Democratic voters?
SARA SADHWANI, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICS, POMONA COLLEGE: Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, voters have been in this sort of situationship with the Democratic Party for quite some time now where there's a lot of promises. But when the time comes, there's no delivery.
And I think with these newer candidates who, yes, maybe are promising the world, at least they're speaking straight to the points that voters care the most about. Things are expensive in America today, whether you're in Michigan or Los Angeles, the cost of living is extraordinarily high.
And for whatever reason, these endorsement -- these typical candidates aren't necessarily speaking to the real challenges that people face. And they also don't have a track record to run on. They haven't been able to bring down costs.
Donald Trump linked the rising costs to Democrats. Whether or not that's true, that message is out there and people are believing it. And so there's this real moment. This is a change election. And so people are looking for those kinds of changes.
MICHAELSON: Sara Sadhwani, Grant Schwab, thanks so much for staying up late with us. We appreciate it. And thanks for sharing your perspective.
We've got more coverage of election night in America. New numbers are coming in, plus Katie Porter's whiteboard. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:36:39]
MICHAELSON: We just got another update from Michigan during that commercial break. Numbers breaking for Haley Stevens, she is now trailing by just under 25,000 votes. 48.9 percent for Abdul El-Sayed, 47.1 percent for Haley Stevens. When I think of election nights, to me, the king of election nights was my hero, Tim Russert, who was on especially in year 2000 was the king of the whiteboard because it got late at night and he needed to draw out what was happening.
Tonight, we have perhaps the queen of the whiteboard from Congress on our set and so we thought if only there was somebody who knows how to operate a whiteboard, Congresswoman Katie Porter here with her whiteboard, our whiteboard, which isn't quite as nice as her whiteboard, but we found something. It's late, OK? We weren't expecting this. You've got the math.
KATIE PORTER, FORMER U.S. HOUSE DEMOCRAT: All right. So what I want to show people is that what's been happening since 11 o'clock, which is this late counted vote, and this late counted vote, we've counted about --
MICHAELSON: 11 o'clock Pacific, just to be clear.
PORTER: Pacific Time.
MICHAELSON: OK.
PORTER: We've counted about 30,676 votes. Of those, Stevens won the majority. She is winning more than El-Sayed. When you do this math out, Stevens is winning 55 percent of the vote and El-Sayed is winning 45 percent. Here's the problem. Right now, we've got about 1.37 million votes that have already been counted in Michigan, 91 percent of the vote, estimated vote, is in. That means how many ballots are there out there to be counted? Only about 125,000.
To close that gap, right now, that we just showed voters, that 24,965 (ph), Stevens has got to do better than 55 percent. She would need to be winning 60 percent.
MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Yeah, 60 percent.
PORTER: And so she's just not quite getting there.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: 55 the rest of the way means he wins by about 12,000 votes though. I mean, just think about how evenly divided the party is.
PORTER: Close, but not close enough for a recount.
BROWNSTEIN: Right, right, right.
MICHAELSON: But it is possible if some of those outstanding votes --
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
MICHAELSON: -- are in Wayne County, which we know --
(CROSSTALK)
BROWNSTEIN: 60 is a crazy (ph) number.
MICHAELSON: -- has been doing well for her that maybe she gets to 60.
PORTER: 60 is not crazy, but --
(CROSSTALK)
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, right.
KLINK: It's not like 80.
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: It's not getting there.
KLINK: It's better than she's performed all (inaudible).
(CROSSTALK)
BROWNSTEIN: By the way, one of the point we've kind of lost sight of, how many more people voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary today. Republicans had a contested primary for governor, but as we are seeing in other states, I mean Democrats are more energized. Like, there were 1.1 million votes I believe in the 2018 governor primary between Gretchen Whitmer and El-Sayed. This is going to be one point --
PORTER: This is 1.57 million (ph) --
(CROSSTALK)
BROWNSTEIN: 1.5 million.
PORTER: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: That is a lot of people to come out and again, that's why all the questions about whether El-Sayed can be competitive, that is an underlying reality. Democrats are very energized. They view what Trump is doing as an existential threat to everything they value about the country and you're seeing it again tonight.
MICHAELSON: By the way, Matt, when you see that whiteboard, aren't you glad you're not a corporate CEO?
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
KLINK: I know.
(LAUGH)
PORTER: He's a good sport about that and I appreciate it.
(LAUGH)
BROWNSTEIN: yeah, that's right.
KLINK: My clients are going to say, what was it like?
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
(LAUGH)
[02:40:00]
MICHAELSON: So if that math stays, sort of what's the big takeaway then from this race and why were the polls so off?
KLINK: Yeah, I mean, look, there are many reasons why polling is off. I'm sure the private polling that each candidate had was spot on.
BROWNSTEIN: I'm not sure about that.
KLINK: OK.
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
KLINK: But, I mean, typically they're more accurate than public polls, but, I mean, again, polls are -- I'm always reminded by my pollsters, they're a snapshot in time and it depends upon who they talk to. So, in this case, I think that you saw Haley Stevens come out pretty -- you know, I think that she lost a little steam and it seems like she picked it up at the end.
If she had continued, you know, which -- when those results came out that showed her down by double digits, I'm sure it was a collective, oh man.
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
KLINK: And if she had just kept going and powered through, maybe she doesn't have to make up, you know, 13,000 votes at the end.
BROWNSTEIN: It's a perfect metaphor for this, like I said, for this primary season. I think we're seeing the most systemic conflict between left and center, and there is no clear winner. I mean, there just is not a clear winner.
MICHAELSON: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: Each side has not -- Graham Platner blew out Janet Mills and Josh Turek won in Iowa. And if you look at the House races tonight, Wesley Bell crushed Cori Bush, and Elaine Luria won, and then the progressive won in Michigan seven because the two centrists split the vote.
You know, you have a Democratic Party that has really divergent visions of how to move forward. But I think fundamentally, the rank and file of the party is still, even as they're being pulled in these different directions, energized by the thought of trying to put (inaudible).
(CROSSTALK)
KLINK: And it's interesting.
MICHAELSON: Just on the polling point, Congresswoman, that we have seen sort of the rise of some of that partisan, private polling as some, you know, sort of non-partisan polling has gone down and just like the internet, people end up getting the numbers that they want. So they're living in an echo (ph) chamber. Right?
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: Worse than that. Worse than that. What we have seen is people saying, let me look at the betting markets, for example.
MICHAELSON: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
KLINK: Oh, terrible.
PORTER: Let me see who's going to win and then I will use that information to decide who I'm going to vote for. MICHAELSON: And we saw some of that in your race for California governor.
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: It is supposed to be the opposite.
MICHAELSON: Right.
PORTER: The betting markets are supposed to reflect the electorate. So I do think to the extent that people are going on the internet, for example, or they're going on social media, they're looking at Kalshi, or one of these betting markets and they're saying, oh, lots of followers for this person. They are then saying, oh, that person's going to win.
I want to vote for the winner. I think one of the most heartening things about this Michigan race, about tonight, is the people of Michigan did some real work of democracy here. They went out, they heard these candidates, they thought about it. It was hard fought. There was a lot of money spent. And --
KLINK: The proof's in the pudding.
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. A lot of people voted.
(CROSSTALK)
KLINK: That's the proof.
(CROSSTALK)
KLINK: 1.3 million people.
PORTER: 1.37 million votes in a Democratic primary, heading for 1.5 million.
BROWNSTEIN: 400,000 more than 2018. I mean, that's a lot of people.
KLINK: That shows enthusiasm that there was a real choice. I mean, the sad part is that for Congresswoman Stevens is that if the third candidate, McMorrow, hadn't run, she probably picks up a big chunk of the votes.
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: See, we don't agree on this. I don't think --
BROWNSTEIN: I could tell.
PORTER: -- it's clear where McMorrow's voters would have gone. I can make an argument that McMorrow voters would have gone to Stevens. I can make an argument that McMorrow voters would have gone to El-Sayed.
And listen, I heard this about myself.
(CROSSTALK)
KLINK: But it is so much more interesting.
PORTER: If Katie Porter had dropped out --
KLINK: It is so much more interesting to say that.
PORTER: -- those voters would have gone to Zaire, Becerra. I actually think they would have split 50/50.
(CROSSTALK)
MICHAELSON: Well, that was the problem for McMorrow, that she didn't have a clear path, because her people did split 50/50, and she didn't have a lane to herself. McMorrow, by the way, who is polling right now, about four percent of this, has said that she will endorse automatically the winner. That she was planning to go to the winner's party tonight if there was a winner, and that she was going to do everything possible to try to bring the party together.
We're going to sneak in a quick break. We do expect more numbers, though, so stay with us as we continue to follow these results in Michigan.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:47:26]
MICHAELSON: We are back with more numbers from Michigan. Let's put those up on the screen right now. We just got a few new votes trickling in. Right now, Abdul El-Sayed ahead by 24,922 votes, 48.9, 47.1. It appears the most likely outcome, if you had to bet right now, is Abdul El-Sayed would win. But don't bet all your money because Haley Stevens still has a chance.
Not that we're encouraging any betting. I actually think betting on politics is horrible. It should be outlawed on Kalshi and all that. But that's my own take.
Congresswoman, this is a change election. Is that challenging for Haley Stevens?
PORTER: I mean, if you take where El-Sayed's strength was, where he's coming from, and you say Michigan voters want problems in their lives solved and they want things fixed. They want something different. Then I couldn't tell you what Haley offers to do different. And I have a lot of respect for Haley Stevens. She's a hard worker. She's smart. I served with her. But what she seems to be saying is, I'm not going to be Trump.
MICHAELSON: Right.
PORTER: Right? And I'll fight for Michigan and I'm not going to be Trump. And the question for Haley --
MICHAELSON: And I'm a workhorse, not a show horse. BROWNSTEIN: I'm electable.
MICHAELSON: He likes doing podcasts.
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: I'm electable and I'm not Trump. OK. I think the question is, for kids like mine, teenagers like mine, they're saying, well, does that help me afford a house? Does that help me retire? Does that do anything about A.I. taking my jobs? Does that do anything about the corruption that we have seen in the last 10 or 20 years in politics? And I think the answer probably is no.
And so, I think that's why you see younger people, people who are not always voters, infrequent voters, coming out for El-Sayed is because they're like, he will actually change things and people want change.
Now, we haven't seen people wanting change in every election, but I think tonight, in Michigan, we did.
MICHAELSON: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: I was struck throughout this race that unlike Biden and Buttigieg in 2020, who challenged the ideas of kind of the ascendant left, who raised questions, forced Bernie and Elizabeth Warren to defend single-payer, she didn't really engage him that hard on any of the big issues.
As we talked about before, she didn't really offer an alternative vision on Israel. She didn't really explain why she did not think giving the federal government control over the healthcare system at a time when RFK Jr. is the Health and Human Services Secretary might not be a great idea for Democrats. And that, I think, is a real lesson for the center of the party.
[02:50:00]
They ultimately have to have the confidence of their convictions and believe that they can win some of these arguments because that is one thing she just didn't do. She just did -- she tried to basically say, I'm electable, I'm a workhorse. She didn't really engage on the issue.
MICHAELSON: Yeah.
(CROSSTALK)
MICHAELSON: Or maybe things --
(CROSSTALK)
PORTER: Workhorse to what end?
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
MICHAELSON: What end? And maybe the party itself has changed on those issues. Wrap around sort of a final thought from each of you. KLINK: Yeah. I mean, look, you saw the divide that exists in the Democratic Party that works in individual congressional races with smaller, more compact electorates. I think that, you know, with the tens of millions of dollars spent tonight, I think that there is going to be a rift that they say they're going to heal, yet neither candidate mentioned the other by name.
And I think that Mike Rogers, the race is still going to be a toss-up.
MICHAELSON: Yeah.
KLINK: But Mike Rogers got the candidate he wants to run against.
MICHAELSON: Final sentence from each of you.
PORTER: I think this is a good night for Democrats. I think to have two talented, strong, young candidates and to have the turnout that we saw in this primary is very, very good news for Democrats. And I think Democrats are going to prevail. Either of them. Either of these Democrats.
MICHAELSON: That was a sentence with lots of semicolons. Last sentence.
(LAUGH)
BROWNSTEIN: Assuming El-Sayed is the nominee, Democratic voters have set up a real-world test of how to win back purple states. Jocelyn Benson, the governor candidate, is a lot more centrist. And we will see which one of them performs better in November.
MICHAELSON: This has been such a joy to hang out with all three of you for the last three hours. It's been fun to witness history together.
BROWNSTEIN: And the history of the return of the whiteboard too.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGH)
MICHAELSON: A moment that we all experienced together. We'll be back with the stories to watch in the hours ahead. Stay with us. You're watching "The Story Is."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:55:36]
MICHAELSON: We continue to follow the numbers in Michigan. 90 percent of the votes have been counted. Progressive candidate, Abdul El-Sayed is maintaining his narrow lead over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. That number of estimated vote just went down to 90 percent which means that they've found some more votes to count. So we'll continue to follow that. Let's take a look at other stories we are following in the day ahead. President Trump set to deliver a speech in Las Vegas on Wednesday. He arrived a little bit earlier. A White House official says the president is expected to focus on the economy and highlight tax cuts. When he spoke there in April, Mr. Trump called Las Vegas the birthplace of his policy, no tax on tips. That's President Trump late tonight in Las Vegas.
Vice President J.D. Vance will host a White House Roundtable on combating fraud Wednesday. As head of the White House task force to eliminate fraud, Vance will meet with members of Congress, discuss potential anti-fraud legislation. Official telling CNN, Congress has an important role to play in cracking down on fraudsters and protecting federal programs from abuse.
President Trump's pick for Attorney General has cleared the Senate Judiciary Committee. Todd Blanche now needs a majority vote in the full Senate, where his confirmation could be decided by a razor-thin margin. Maine Senator Susan Collins says she opposes Blanche's nomination, meaning you can afford to lose only one more Republican vote. Final vote expected later this week.
Thanks for being with us as we've watched history together in Michigan. I'm Elex Michaelson. Our Special Coverage of Election Night in America continues next with my colleague, Polo Sandoval, and maybe the race will be called in his hours. Thanks for being with us.
[02:57:11]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[03:00:00]
