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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Dan S. Sullivan & Mary Peltola Advance in Alaska Senate Race; Florida, Alaska, Wyoming, California Pick Nominees for Midterms. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired August 19, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:01:08]

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Elex Michaelson, live in Los Angeles. Welcome to a special extra hour of THE STORY IS.

It is election night in America, and we're following the latest round of primaries and special elections in four states. We'll get to the results in Florida in a moment, but first to Alaska, where not one but two Dan Sullivans are running for U.S. Senate. Dan S. Sullivan is the Republican incumbent, and he will advance the November election along with Democrat Mary Peltola, who appears to be the top vote getter, member in that state, the top four advance.

Here in California, two Democrats are vying to replace Congressman Eric Swalwell in the 14th district. He resigned after sexual harassment allegations tanked his run for governor. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has spent millions campaigning against Aisha Wahab, who is a vocal critic of the Israel military action in Gaza, you see that race is too close to call. Just 1,300 votes separating the two. We are not going to know the result of that tonight because there needs to be more counting over the next several days.

In Wyoming, CNN projects that Trump endorsed Congresswoman Harriet Hageman has secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. She will face Democratic nominee James Byrd in the November midterms.

Now to Florida, where the governor's race is set for November. CNN projects Congressman Byron Donalds will win the Republican nomination. He was endorsed by President Trump. Donalds will face David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat in that gubernatorial showdown. CNN's Steve Contorno is in Florida with more on that governor's race. Steve.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: The race to replace Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now set. On Tuesday, voters for the Republican Party nominated Byron Donalds, the Naples area congressman, to be their party's representative in a race that will also feature Democrat David Jolly, a former congressman who once was a Republican before changing parties.

Donalds carried the endorsement of President Donald Trump to victory over a field that included Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner. Donalds did not have the support of the state's current governor, Ron DeSantis, but he said he would carry his legacy if elected in November.

BYRON DONALDS (R), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE OF FLORIDA: In Florida, we have built a strong foundation under former Governor Rick Scott, and under Governor Ron DeSantis, we have supercharged that foundation, making Florida the envy of every state in America. We are going to continue that legacy and take Florida to the next level.

CONTORNO: If elected, Donalds would become the state's first black governor. Jolly, meanwhile, is trying to reverse a trend of devastating losses for his party, and he says he believes he can change the recent fortunes.

DAVID JOLLY (D), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE OF FLORIDA: They had an opportunity to listen to voters and deliver on the economy, housing, healthcare, and education. Instead, they've chosen to double down on culture wars and defend Trump's economy, and voters aren't having it.

We don't always get this cycle. You're exactly right, but I'm telling you, voters know right now that our politics are broken and they're looking for change.

CONTORNO: Democrats, though, have little muscle memory for victories here, and they also have a significant structural disadvantage. Republicans have 1.6 million more registered voters than Democrats, a reversal of where this state was just a decade ago, and a sign of how much this state has become red in recent years.

Steve Cantorno, CNN, Orlando, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON: Our panel has been tracking the results all night. With us once again, Bloomberg opinion columnist Ron Brownstein, Democrat Katie Porter, who ran for governor here in California, former member of Congress, and Matt Klink, Republican strategist. Welcome back, all of you.

[02:05:01]

Great to have you, Ron. Let's start with you. This Florida race, Byron Donalds close with President Trump, and seems to be embracing him again tonight. Here's what he told Laura Coates earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALDS: President is a friend and obviously supported me in this race, and is -- and I anticipate he's going to continue to support me all the way through to November. That's what's going to happen.

And so, of course we'd love to have the president because look at the end of the day, voters I would think throughout Florida, especially in Florida, they remember, but through all of America, remember what this country was like three years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: How does Trump -- I mean, Trump still plays pretty well in Florida, right?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. Look, Trump. Trump's support in the Republican Party is still predominant, but it is not absolute anymore. He is -- he is losing some primaries here, and it's a reflection. I think you see it in the polls, his approval rating among Republicans is down to about 80 percent, which is still pretty high, but not nearly what it -- what it was at the beginning.

The real issue is not what Byron Donalds does in Florida. It's that Republicans, even in swing states where Trump's approval has clearly fallen below 50, do not feel free to break from him anyway. We saw that last year in New Jersey and Virginia, with the gubernatorial candidates who had not criticized Trump, even when he took actions that directly hurt their state, and they paid for it when over 90 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump voted Democratic in those races. Mike Rogers in Michigan may be the most interesting example in the country, a state where Trump's disapproval is at 60 percent. No Republican in his first term won a Senate race in a state where his disapproval was that high. Collins is the only one who won in a state where it was net negative at all.

So, Byron Donald, sure, embrace Donald Trump, but when you get to some of these other races where he is in states where he has fallen below 50 percent the fact that Republicans don't feel more freedom to differentiate from him that could be a problem in November.

MICHAELSON: Well, I think that is Matt Klink, Republican strategist.

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, look, I mean to tell you the influence of Trump in the Republican Party, he made 200 -- he was 227, 97 percent win rate for his endorsements prior to tonight in the Republican primaries.

Now, some of those races were undecided, but as Ron rightfully points out, you get into a general election where you have Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are declined to stay in the ballot. All the gloves come off, and then people do start to criticize Donald Trump.

The challenge in a lot of states here is they -- you know, Barbara Boxer referred to it as tailwinds. The Democrats are boosted. The Republicans face huge headwinds, and I think the challenge here and the and the opportunity for the Republicans is they have to talk about some of the crazy Democrat positions and try to -- you know, the economy is not going to -- is not going to improve radically. Gas prices are still going to be high, but the Democrats are electing crazy in some cases. Medicare for all, $1.1-1.5 trillion a year.

BROWNSTEIN: Actually, maybe even be more than that. BROWNSTEIN: It's more than that.

KLINK: Maybe it's three and 3.5.

You know, getting rid of ICE, open borders, looser prisons. You know, fleeing criminals. Paint the picture. They're still talking about men playing in women's sports because the Democrats are obsessed with it. Paint that picture.

MICHAELSON: What Democrat is -- what Democrat is obsessed with that?

KATIE PORTER, FORMER GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA: You all are obsessed with that topic, not Democrats.

MICHAELSON: What Democrat is obsessed with that topic?

KLINK: You can listen to any number of them talking about.

MICHAELSON: Who? Who voluntarily brings that -- voluntarily brings that topic up?

KLINK: I know Zohran Mamdani has talked about it, and he's a front runner in the Democratic circles.

MICHAELSON: He ran on the idea?

KLINK: I didn't say he ran on it. I said they're -- I said they're talking about it. It's a 90-10 issue in America right now, and I'm on the 90 side.

MICHAELSON: Yes. Well. All right. There's a lot to have.

PORTER: I'm sure lucky stars that you have support on some issue because you've lost Americans on the economy, on housing, on energy, on the war in Iran, on any number of other issues. That's why Trump's approval rating is in the toilet.

Sure, Florida, I don't think Democrats have a chance in Florida, but you said it yourself. Barbara Boxer is correct. Democrats have the tailwind here, and I think the challenge for Democrats is not to just ride on that wind. The thing about the wind is it blows and then it doesn't.

So, Democrats have that wind at their backs. The question is, what are we going to do with it? Are we going to use it to put forward a positive agenda? Are we going to come up with our equivalent of Project 2025 for the Democratic Party? And we have not done that.

But that is a fair criticism of the Democratic Party. I think your suggestion that Democrats want to talk about these culture wars, we do not. We want to talk about the fact that President Trump is deeply, deeply unpopular.

[02:10:06]

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, this is -- this is -- I mean, this election really does feel like irresistible force meets immovable object. Trump's approval rating is eight to 10 points lower than Biden '22, Trump '18, Obama '10, Clinton '94, all of which were really tough elections. About seven or eight points lower even than Bush in '06.

The difference is that the election is being fought out primarily on Republican terrain. There are only before redistricting only three House Republicans in districts that voted for Harris, compared to about two dozen in '18 in districts that voted for Clinton. I think you were one of them.

And of the, you know, the six seats that they're contesting in the Senate, only one, Susan Collins, is the only one that Trump lost. Four of them, in fact, he won by double digits.

So, the arguments that Matt is making historically have been really hard, as you know, it's been almost impossible for the party in the White House to make the election about the out party. Except that in this Republican terrain, there may be more of an audience for that Democratic that focusing on Democrats still really hard. Presidential approval is the driving force.

MICHAELSON: Are we now at a point where governing is so impossible to actually do, that all we do is go back and forth between the parties because everybody hates what the other party is doing, right? I mean, that's all it is, right? We don't like the other side, and so we're going to vote for change. Change is the most popular thing, no matter who's in there, because the system doesn't work.

BROWNSTEIN: Especially when there's unified government. No president has gone into a midterm with control of the White House, House, and Senate, and defended it through a midterm since Jimmy Carter in 1978, and that is the longest span in American history where no president has been able to defend unified control even through one midterm. Right?

I mean, that is the fundamental reality. We keep switching parties because voters are dissatisfied with a lot of things, but most above all, their kind of their ability to get ahead, their standard of living, and neither party has been able to produce a solution.

MICHAELSON: Because right now, to your point, there really isn't a democratic agenda, so it's not like voters are necessarily voting for this, you know, this like what Newt Gingrich said, here's our contract for America. There is no contract for America for Democrats. We don't even know who's the leader of the Democratic Party, which is hard to do in a time like this.

But there is no one person who is like this is where the Democrats go, which is not unusual, but is hard for people to follow.

PORTER: I think it's about the lack of a person, I think, it is about the lack of the willingness of Democrats and Republicans to really grapple with the fundamental economic situation that families find themselves in. Wealth inequality is real and it is getting much much worse. And in a democracy, that is tough. Campaign finance is getting much much worse, and the extremes of spending. All of those things produce Americans who are not just dissatisfied with one party; they are dissatisfied with the rot of this system.

MICHAELSON: And the people that I'm sure you had to go through this, if you spend all your day dialing people for money, the people you're calling probably don't have an affordability crisis at home because they have money to give you, and the people that are having the affordability crisis, you don't have time to talk to them.

MICHAELSON: So, look, as we know, I did a lot of my fundraising, as you said, by e-mail. I did a lot of small dollar, and I actually did small dollar call time, which is something I think is really important. I would call donors who gave me not all of them, but donors who chipped in $5.00 or $10.00. I would call them. I would devote a couple hours a week to doing that.

These are choices that candidates make, and they can make different choices. They can make choices to actually come up with policy proposals. They can make choices to actually run on changing our democracy and improving our democracy.

But I'll tell you, there's not a lot of incentive for candidates to do that when it has been enough the last several cycles to either say Trump sucks or Biden sucks. So, some of this is on voters, they need to demand more.

MICHAELSON: If you say more than that, sometimes you get yourself in trouble because then you're in the weeds, and then people can say, I don't like Medicare for all or whatever it is.

KLINK: So few plus five districts or less. Everything's plus 10, plus 12. Meaning that the spread between one party and the other is plus that number. That there's no incentive for compromise. Well, that's a bad -- it's a bad word.

BROWNSTEIN: And also, there are so -- there are so few plus five voters really either way. I mean, the reality is that somewhere close to 90, somewhere between 85 and 90 percent of the electorate is pretty locked in, and they are locked in on cultural values. Really, their vision of America, as you're -- Lynn and you're going to be talking to later.

The research -- the research is very clear on that. There are a lot of people who are locked in, but because those coalitions of the locked in are roughly equal in size. The people who are voting based on results, based on how they feel things are going into the country in their own lives, even though they're a relatively small number of people, they control. They are the tipping point, and because they are persistently dissatisfied, as you said, we are in the situation where I believe we are in the longest period in American history where neither party has been able to sustain a durable advantage over there.

[02:15:17]

I mean, the last three Congresses have had majorities of 10 seats or less. That has never happened over three Congresses in the House.

PORTER: I have a pithy -- I have a pithy summary of this for everyone. As we're getting -- we're getting later and later, political polarization produces poor policies. That is really what we're talking about.

MICHAELSON: Those are the new P's.

PORTER: Yes, all out of P's. Political polarization produces poor policies.

KLINK: 5 P's from Katie Porter.

BROWNSTEIN: He's 5 P's.

MICHAELSON: Great discussion. I think that's very real conversation about what's actually happening in America, which you don't often get to really do with this kind of nuance in cable news. So, I appreciate CNN for giving us this platform, and the three of you for having it.

Our election night coverage continues in a moment. We'll have the latest results in the neck-and-neck California special election to replace former Congressman Eric Swalwell, and as Ron mentioned, we'll be talking with Lynn Vavreck and Michael Genovese. Get their perspective as well. Stay with us.

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[02:20:30]

MICHAELSON: Live results here in California for the special election in the state's 14th district. Two Democrats facing off to serve the remainder of former Congressman Eric Swalwell's term. The polls closed just a few hours ago. Progressive state senator Aisha Wahab is facing former Mayor Melissa Hernandez, who now chairs the board of Bay Area Rapid Transit.

So, if you've been watching us the last couple weeks during our live coverage at this time, when we saw Wisconsin, when we saw Michigan, late into the nights, the numbers changed. Well, here in California, the numbers are stuck because they're not counting anymore. They've made the decision to go home from the night. So, as we've seen often in California, we do not know the winner on election night as a choice of policy in this state.

Joining me now for insights and analysis, political analyst Michael Genovese, president of the Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University and the Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA, Lynn Vavreck, two of the best from two of California's best schools.

Let's start with you, Lynn. The two ladies in the runoff tonight. How do you see that race?

LYNN VAVRECK, HOFFENBERG PROFESSOR OF AMERICAN POLITICS, UCLA: So, the first thing that I would say about California 14 is we've seen low turnout in this election, and that's not really much of a surprise because people in this district probably feel like they've voted in this election a couple times already this season, and that's because they have. So, this is a special runoff election for the remainder of Swalwell's term.

And then these two ladies, as you've described this race, will compete again for the '26 general election term. And so, if you're wondering, you know, why is turnout so low, it may be because this is a very confusing district competition that we're seeing here.

MICHAELSON: So, right, so, they voted in the primary for the full term. They voted in the special election for the remainder of the term. This is now the second special election for the remainder of the term, and then they're going to vote again in the general election. So that's four different times voting for the same seat with the same names.

So, and if that's not confusing enough, because the district is redistricted in November, there's actually different people potentially voting in that race versus this race.

So, Michael Genovese we'll go to you. What's the big storyline you're most interested in on this election night?

MICHAEL GENOVESE, POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I'm just wondering if the voters are going to turn out in the next coming elections because confusion and chaos are reigning supreme, and I don't see how they're going to get much better. Because how many elections can you keep having? You get voter fatigue, and voters aren't going to keep going to the polls because they'll get frustrated, they'll get angry, and they'll drop out.

And so, unless there's some really strong, committed candidate voters for a particular candidate, and in that case, it would probably be the more progressive candidate who has the advantage because there's more enthusiasm for that candidate. But I -- but I think anything could happen because nothing makes sense.

MICHAELSON: Yes, and sort of deep into the weeds on this, Nancy Pelosi and some of her allies wanted there to be a placeholder candidate so that there wouldn't be this special election runoff, and that didn't happen, and there was a whole fight over that.

But let's get into the big picture stuff as we have viewers watching us from around the world right now. Lynn, you look at what is resonating with voters. You've written several books about this. You've looked in the polls. You looked at the science behind this. What are you seeing as you look around the country in terms of where voters are at right now?

VAVRECK: I think it's very easy for everyone to answer this question, whether that's because you're experiencing it yourself or you're talking to your friends and neighbors and family members.

So, you don't need a political scientist to answer this. Question: Everyone's talking about prices. Can't afford the things I want. Can't afford the things I need. And then, that enters us into a debate about why. So, prices are the thing on the top of everyone's mind. Now, that

doesn't necessarily mean that that is going to be what these 2026 midterm elections are going to be fought over, because two candidates are going to be in these contests, and affordability in prices is only going to benefit one side, and we all know which side is going to benefit Democrats right now. Why? Not because they've got great ideas about how to solve these problems, but because they're not the party in power right now.

[02:25:27]

So, this is performance evaluation. How are the guys doing who are in? Not so great, kick them out.

So, one side wants to talk about this, but there's another side in these contests, and they get to come up and say, well, hey, we don't think that we should fight over that. Maybe we should fight over these other things.

And those other things we know, when the Republicans are on the back foot, they will bring forward these identity-inflected issues, largely, as Ron Brownstein said a moment ago, based on values.

And so, whether these 2026 midterms are going to be about prices or cultural values, that is yet to be seen. It depends on how those candidates respond to each other.

MICHAELSON: And Michael, both the culture issues and prices are issues that the average voter can understand. Those are things that hit you on a gut level when you're shopping. You see it in front of you. You see the gas prices in front of you, or a lot of these culture issues are so personal and so passionate. We're not talking about like marginal tax rates here.

GENOVESE: And you know, more than anything, I think voters are not flexible, tshey're ingrained. They're -- they know who they are. They know what they -- what they respond to. Prices are going to be a big deal. Lynn's absolutely correct. In the absence of any other big issue, it's pocketbook issues that people vote on.

So, the question is, what would the other issues be? And LHU mentioned cultural issues. The Republicans are going to try to find wedge issues. They're going to try to find things that divide. And the Democrats are going to -- you remember 1992? It's the economy, stupid. That's going to be the mantra for the Democrats this time around too. If the Democrats can keep a focus on that, they will do pretty well. If it gets into cultural issues, the Republicans might have an advantage, because they are incredibly good and effective at going on the attack, dividing people, and Donald Trump is the master of that.

MICHAELSON: Probably nobody who's ever been better at doing that than Donald Trump. It's part of the reason he's won the presidency twice.

Lynn Vavreck, Michael Genovese. It's fascinating to peer into your homes. We get a good sense of you. We know Michael now you're a big fan of Joltin Joe. And Lynn, I love the surfboard. I mean, what a -- what a look. What schools were in SoCal more than that?

VAVRECK: I have to give a shout out to gift from a former PhD student, now a professor at Texas A&M. Gave me a surfboard.

MICHAELSON: What a -- what a great present. And now that gift has been seen on CNN around the world.

Michael, Lynn, great to see both you. Look forward to having you back here in our home soon as well.

Still to come, we'll take a look at how Independent voters in the U.S. are faring, what their options are. That's especially interesting with what's happening in Alaska too. This idea of the ranked choice voting. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:32:30]

MICHAELSON: In America, including in Alaska, CNN can now project that Democrat Mary Peltola will advance in Alaska's U.S. Senate race. She'll face Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in November.

Sullivan fought off a challenger from another contender also named Dan Sullivan, which was very confusing for some people. John Updike is the Founder and President of Open Primaries, a group that advocates for non-partisan primary systems in the U.S.

He joins me now live from Chicago. Thanks for staying up late with us. Welcome to "The Story Is" for the first time.

JOHN UPDIKE, FOUNDER & PRESIDENT, OPEN PRIMARIES: Great to be here, Elex.

MICHAELSON: Why do you think an open primary works so well? And do you think that the ranked choice system that they have in Alaska is the best version of all?

UPDIKE: Well, I think the reason an open primary works so well is very, very simple. It allows everybody to participate in round one. And when you do that, you're enfranchising independent voters which, by the way, are the largest and fastest growing segment of the electorate. But even more than that, you're incentivizing candidates to speak to people that are not in their base.

And when that happens, you start to see some new political conversations happen. And I think that's very positive for the country. A number of your panelists earlier in the hour were talking about how everything seems so locked in, that there's very little space for anything new.

And opening up the primaries is not a silver bullet, but it certainly creates more oxygen for new things to emerge.

MICHAELSON: Here in California, we've had open primaries for some time now. UPDIKE: Yep.

MICHAELSON: And Democrats and Republican leaders are now saying it didn't work. And there is a push --

UPDIKE: Yeah, they hate it.

MICHAELSON: -- from the parties to try to change it. Do you have real examples --

UPDIKE: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- from a place like California where an open primary has actually led to a more independent person be in there? I mean, no independent --

UPDIKE: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- has won statewide in this system.

UPDIKE: Yeah, but the thing is, the voters have much more power in California. And if you look at their last primary, you had 41 percent turnout. Compare that to New York, where they have a closed primary, nine percent turnout. The number of candidates that have to build coalitions, that include Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, has skyrocketed in California.

[02:35:00]

The ability of Democrats and Republicans to do business together, to work on legislation together. The culture in Sacramento under the old closed primary system, Democrats and Republicans couldn't have lunch together. And now they're writing bills together.

California has huge problems, but they have a political system that gives voters and cooperative politicians some tools to address that.

MICHAELSON: I mean, Fabian Nunez and Arnold Schwarzenegger were pretty close back in the day. But just to the point about ranked choice voting, which is what we're seeing in Alaska right now, a state where you have a Senator like Lisa Murkowski, who is certainly pretty independent of President Trump, not his favorite Senator. Do you think that that is the best expression of an open primary?

UPDIKE: You know, it's early days and I think there's room for a lot of experimentation. The people in Alaska opted to do a top four with ranked choice voting. The people of California, Washington, Nebraska opted for top two. I think there's some simpleness to a top two. It creates a head to head in November without a complicated counting system.

But I really think that people should be free to choose what system works best for their state.

MICHAELSON: Well, thank you so much for sharing your perspective. Really appreciate it. John Updike, as we have a conversation about -- UPDIKE: I would just --

MICHAELSON: Oh, lastly.

UPDIKE: One last thing, Elex, the fact that the parties hate the open primary in California is a signal that it is working, that tells me everything I need to know about the effectiveness of it.

MICHAELSON: Thank you so much. Really appreciate you sharing your views. Let's bring back our panel, Ron Brownstein, Katie Porter, Matt Klink.

Do you think the top two system is working? Open primary?

KATIE PORTER, FORMER U.S. HOUSE DEMOCRAT: I think we've seen a lot of gaming of the top two, right? So we've seen sort of -- the idea is that you're really letting voters, as he said, participate in. They can, you know, independent voters can vote. But what you've seen, though, is you've seen Democrats or Republicans try to really game it to pick their opponent.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

PORTER: So more money was spent sort of lifting up the Republican to make sure that we didn't have two Democrats.

MICHAELSON: Like Steve Garvey in the Senate campaign?

PORTER: Steve Garvey in the Senate campaign. I mean, I believe that Senator Schiff, him and his super PAC spent more money lifting up Garvey than they did affirmatively telling people about Senator Schiff, who has a lot of great things to say about Senator Schiff. But that wasn't as effective electorally.

(CROSSTALK)

MICHAELSON: Yeah. I mean, so just not to get too in the weeds, but that -- during that Senate race, which you were in, Adam Schiff versus you versus Steve Garvey, there were polls that showed if it was a Porter-Schiff race in the general election --

PORTER: I would have won probably.

MICHAELSON: -- it was 50/50 to start out.

PORTER: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: And that if it was a Schiff-Garvey race, that Schiff wins by 25 points.

PORTER: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: So he spent millions of dollars to help Garvey. Garvey gets into the top two. He wins by 25 points.

PORTER: And what I'll say is voters, whether that's a perfectly legal thing to do, I just want to be clear, it's perfectly legal to do that. But I will tell you, voters don't like it.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

PORTER: They give their money to the Democratic candidate. They don't expect to see those dollars then used to lift up a Republican.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: So I worked on that ballot measure, and I think I was the spokesperson statewide on that ballot measure. And the intention behind it was that it was going to allegedly produce more moderate candidates. It's failed miserably. And I respectfully disagree with the last guy.

The legislature doesn't work well. The Democrats can't even get along. You have the progressive Democrats fight with the moderate Democrats who fight with the Republicans. And they play budget games every year. I mean -- so it hasn't worked as intended. And changing it's going to be very, very difficult because it's been in existence for a while.

MICHAELSON: Sure.

KLINK: But it's not work -- we were sold that it would produce moderate candidates, and it's not working.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I know there are advocates who believe that in some of the state legislative districts, it does work, where you can have, if it's a predominantly Democratic district, for example, or a predominantly Republican district, a moderate can win by putting together a little bit of their party plus the other party.

In the statewide elections, it's obviously been a failure for all the reasons we're talking about. And really, in this year, it felt like it was just parallel campaigns. Like watching those debates, it wasn't like they were competing for the same voters. They were just Republicans and Democrats who happened to be because of this weird system running on the same ballot. I mean, this is a little different. The top four, the Alaska is a little different.

The top four, with a rank choice, I think does give you different outcomes. When Peltola won the first time against Palin, I think she was only at 36 percent in the first round in the primary, and the combined Republican vote was close to 60, and she won.

[02:40:00]

You know, what's interesting here, tonight, is if you look at the governor primary, the Democrats are combining for only about 41 percent of the combined vote, the Democratic candidate. She's at 47, and I think the belief of people who follow this is that she's going to get better as the night goes on, and that gives you an indication of what a strong candidate she can be.

MICHAELSON: Yeah. BROWNSTEIN: I mean, she's significantly outrunning where Democrats are in the governor race or what the Democrat-plus-Independent is in the at-large House seat.

MICHAELSON: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: So, you get a sense of her potential appeal beyond her party base in this kind of thing, which was the goal in California, but hasn't really been strong (ph).

MICHAELSON: And Alaska is a bit of an outlier. I mean, remember, Lisa Murkowski won as a write-in candidate in Alaska.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: That would be impossible in almost any other state. Meanwhile, there's this push here in California and a discussion nationally about voter ID. There is a ballot initiative that's coming in November.

Today, there was a press conference. The Senator from California, Alex Padilla, who used to be Secretary of State, leading that press conference. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. ALEX PADILLA, (D-CA): Well, him and I haven't talked about Prop 39 specifically yet, but we know how he feels about vote by mail. He reminds us at least on a weekly basis. He knows what he thinks about California and the integrity of California's elections.

SEN. CARL DEMAIO, (R-CA): Here you have partisan politicians trying to inject division into what should be something that's quite unifying. In Washington, the SAVE Act, very aggressive, lots of mandates. Prop 39 is a bipartisan response to that. It is a solution to voter ID.

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MICHAELSON: We've got about a minute left, so maybe like 20 seconds to each of you. Your thoughts on voter ID?

KLINK: It makes a lot of sense. However, it's caught up in the swirl of national politics and it's going to fail.

PORTER: It's going to be defeated in California because we are going to -- Democrats are going to paint it as a vote for voter ID, as a vote for Donald Trump's election meddling.

BROWNSTEIN: Democrats should consider, at the national level, accepting some form of voter ID with a broad range of acceptable documents in return for some of the election reforms they want -- same-day registration, guaranteed mail voting, guaranteed early voting. It may be the only way to break this deadlock that we're in over national rules, one side trying to impose and then (ph) on the other. MICHAELSON: Thank you all. I think this is the time of the night where we say goodnight to you guys. The show is not over yet, but it has been such a pleasure to get to hang out with you not only tonight, but the last three election nights. What great conversations. Katie, Ron, Matt, thanks for staying up late with us for election night in America, including election night in Alaska. We'll have the latest results from the unique primary there.

Up next, we're going to talk to somebody in Alaska who specializes in this stuff to explain what's really going on and why this race could be determinative in terms of whether the Democrats win the Senate or not. Stay with us.

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[02:46:46]

MICHAELSON: Results still coming in from Alaska as we await the top four candidates. We'll move on to the general Senate race later this year. CNN projects two of those spots. We go to incumbent Republican Senator, Dan S Sullivan, who is seeking a third term in Congress and former Democratic Congresswoman, Mary Peltola. Live now to Alaska to Mark Sabbatini who is the Editor of the Juneau Independent.

What do you make of the numbers that we're seeing so far and what that tells us about November?

MARK SABBATINI, EDITOR, JUNEAU INDEPENDENT: Well, right now, what it tells us is exactly what you just said, that it'll be a race as expected between Mary Peltola and Senator Dan Sullivan. And it's expected to be a very close one. It's rated as a toss-up by the pundits. And right now, Mary Peltola's got a lead of about two-and-a- half percent with I'd say maybe two-thirds of the votes counted. In previous years, she did a bit better with the late results that came in because those are from rural areas where she tends to do well.

So that lead could grow a little bit by the final results, but this is all just preliminary. This is going to give everybody a snapshot of where they are with plenty of time before November to dig in and figure out what works and what doesn't with their campaigns. And that's for the two main candidates.

The other Dan Sullivan who's getting a lot of attention, right now, he's got about 2.4 percent. So even if he took all his votes and added it to Senator Sullivan's, wouldn't quite have him overtake Mary Peltola, so that's where that race is at.

MICHAELSON: In terms of the next round, the entire nation could come down to Alaska in terms of who's going to control the United States Senate. How much of a chance does Peltola have? We've talked about her throughout the night, she is really outperforming other Democrats.

SABBATINI: Well, Alaska has long been a State with more Republicans than Democrats, but there's even more Independent voters. So there's always room for a strong Democrat to run. This is good -- she certainly did well in 2022 when she ran for the first time, but then two years ago, lost to a Republican who she had defeated before. So this race is going to play out with some of the same dynamics you're seeing nationally.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

SABBATINI: A lot of this is going to be about whether or not people do or don't support Donald Trump and there's going to be a lot of issues related to resource development that people are going to feel very strongly about one way or the other. Same with other issues, whether it is health care or jobs or whatever else. So she has a very legit chance which is why it's rated a toss-up.

MICHAELSON: In terms of -- as simply and concisely as possible, can you explain how ranked choice voting works and whether people like it?

SABBATINI: That's a good question and folks will get a chance to again decide if they want ranked choice voting this year. So that one is very much evenly divided, I think, with just a bare majority keeping it on -- keeping it here in Alaska.

[02:50:00]

How it works is people pick the candidates of their choice, first, second, third, and fourth. With the Senate race, that could be Mary Peltola, followed by another Democrat, followed by an Independent, followed perhaps by whoever they like least.

And then they do a counting of all the things, and then the lowest of the four candidates in the general election, that candidate is removed, and all of their lower choice votes are distributed among the other three candidates. If nobody has 50 percent -- more than 50 percent, then the third-ranked candidate, those persons' votes are distributed among the top two candidates, and then you declare a winner, if that makes sense.

MICHAELSON: It is a lot for people to follow in other parts of the country that aren't used to it, but it'll be interesting to see if ranked choice voting becomes more of a thing or less of a thing in the years ahead. We know it is employed in places like New York, San Francisco, other places as well. Mark Sabbatini, joining us live from Juneau, Alaska. Thank you so much for the information, really appreciate it.