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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson
Supreme Court Backs Trump's Order to Curb Mail Ballots; South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff; Trump Ramps Up Attacks on Canada, Insults Its Leaders; U.S. Threatens Sanctions on Iran's Trading Partners; Ukraine Marks 35th Independence Day with Alliance Meeting. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired August 25, 2026 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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WAGMEISTER: The one quick thing I want to say Laura, as our friend Betty Smith always says, it gets greater later.
COATES: I love that. And of course you get better every single time I see you.
Wagmeister, this is an incredible series. I'm so proud to watch it and see you in it. And of course all the people you have featured so thank you so much.
And thank you all for watching. "THE STORY IS WITH ELEX MICHAELSON" is next.
ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Elex Michaelson, live in Los Angeles.
Coming up, THE STORY IS voting by mail. The Supreme Court hands President Trump a win on one of his signature election issues. But it's not the final word.
THE STORY IS a border brawl. What started as a battle over tariffs has turned to a war of insults. President Trump is warning Canada to fall in line, while Ontario's premier is telling the president exactly where he can go.
And THE STORY IS Nevada wildfires. The Hawk Fire scorching thousands of acres, destroying homes, and forcing tens of thousands to evacuate as firefighters battle high winds and flames.
ANNOUNCER: Live from Los Angeles, THE STORY IS with Elex Michaelson.
MICHAELSON: And the top story is in Washington. A little more than two months before the high stakes midterm elections, the U.S. Supreme Court has given Donald Trump an interim win in his effort to restrict mail-in voting. The court's conservative majority upholding part of the president's executive order from back in March that was challenged by states led by Democrats. That order gives the Homeland Security Department and the U.S. Postal
Service unprecedented new roles in the running of elections. DHS would have to compile state specific voter eligibility lists, and then the Postal Service would impose new mandates on states that want to send ballots through the mail.
These are major changes, and it's not clear how long they will take to actually implement. What is clear, they're injecting confusion and uncertainty in the voting process. The president has long baselessly rallied against mail-in voting, calling it corrupt and fraudulent, even though he often does it himself. Just did it recently.
CNN's senior legal analyst Elie Honig here with analysis.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ELIE HONIG, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: What the court did do today is issue an important temporary procedural ruling. The court basically said it's too early. They said the states who are suing to block this, the Democratic run states, cannot yet show enough concrete, specific harm that we can rule on this case as a court. Essentially, the court said, well, there's a bunch of hypotheticals here that could lead to some harm, but we're not there yet. So the ultimate constitutional issue still to be resolved. But for now, a big win for the Trump administration.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: We'll talk about the takeaways from the Supreme Court decision and what it means for November midterms with our political panel a little later in the show. But now we want to get to the other big political story.
It is now Tuesday morning in South Carolina, where voters will cast their ballots in the day ahead in the Republican Senate runoff. Darline Graham has been in office for less than six weeks after the death of her brother Senator Lindsey Graham. She is facing Congress member Ralph Norman. The winner will take on Democrat Annie Andrews in November.
Gavin Jackson is the host of SECTV's weekly public affairs show, the week in -- "This Week in South Carolina" and the weekly "South Carolina Lede" podcast. He also was one of the co-moderators of that debate where Darline Graham claimed that national security was not her thing.
Gavin Jackson, welcome to THE STORY IS for the first time.
GAVIN JACKSON, HOST, SECTV'S "THIS WEEK IN SOUTH CAROLINA": Yes, thanks for having me on.
MICHAELSON: So where are we at in these final hours? What's the sense on the ground in terms of who's ahead, if anybody is?
JACKSON: That's a good question, Elex. We're all wondering that. We're going to find out after 7:00 p.m. tonight here in South Carolina because polling right now, we just saw a recent poll come out from Trafalgar Group, which shows Darline and Ralph Norman neck and neck. We're literally talking half a percentage point here. So way within the margin of error. No one could really tell you definitively which way this race is going.
It's been a whirlwind past 45 days in South Carolina since we lost the late Senator Lindsey Graham. And it's been a sprint. You know, two weeks ago, we had 10 candidates in this race. Now we have just two. And they're pretty different people there, too, as well. But, you know, it's really wide open right now. I don't think we're going to know the results until really late Tuesday evening.
MICHAELSON: In terms of that debate that got so much attention when Darline Graham said that national security is not my thing. You're sitting there. What's that like in the room? And days later, as you've talked to voters, how are voters responding to that moment?
JACKSON: Right. So it was a bit of a forthright answer, some would say, I think we were kind of getting maybe a little bogged down in foreign policy issues, but that's, you know, we were partnered with Newsmax on that. That was more of their debate. So we came up with those questions separately.
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I think we, you know, really got into foreign policy when foreign policy is really not the name of the game when it comes to this election. And Senator Graham really made that clear. That's been her message since the beginning of this, saying that she is not like her brother when it comes to her record or her stances on foreign policy. Of course, the late senator was a huge hawk when it came to national security, and he was known for that. I mean, look at the international leaders that attended his funeral, for example.
So that's going to be a huge shift when it comes to whoever wins this race today and goes on to the November election because all the issues are the economy. That's what voters are telling us about. And I spoke to several voters in a key county, Horry County, which is Myrtle Beach, where we saw the president on Friday rallying for her. And a lot of the voters who were supporters of hers said, you know, they did have a bit of a cringe, a little drawback to how forthright, how honest she was about that answer.
But at the same time, they know she's an outsider. They're not too concerned about that. And even the president was saying at that rally, she has good people around her. She'll surround herself with the right people. And that's one of the advantages of her situation right now is that she has the late senator's staff with her staying with her, supporting her, getting her read up on these kind of things.
Because, again, Taiwan is not top of mind for South Carolinians, but we all understand that, you know, it's a very flat world that we live in and everything is connected. So she'll -- she's trying to make that case that she's an outsider and she will know what to do when the moment comes. But right now, of course, that was a very viral moment that broke through to folks that really aren't paying attention. And again, the voters aren't too swayed by it at this point.
MICHAELSON: Well, and one of the things she's clearly suggesting she'll do when the moment comes is listen to President Trump and essentially do what he wants. Talk about why is she so -- why is President Trump so all in for her in a way he isn't with almost any other candidate across the country? And what that may also have to do with Ralph Norman, her opponent?
JACKSON: Right. So we did see Governor Henry McMaster appoint her to fill out the remainder of her brother's term, right immediately after his death in July. And then that progressed into the president, his telling of it, that he told her to go ahead and run for the full term. He supports her. He sees her as someone somewhat of an ally, you know, continuing on Lindsey Graham's legacy.
You know, of course, Lindsey and the president had a contentious relationship going back to 2015, when he was also running for president. But Graham came around and became a very close ally. He had the ear of {resident Donald Trump, and he really solidified that relationship, so much so that it's carrying over to his sister, Darline, who Trump sees as someone that would be easy to get along with his agenda, not ask too many questions, be that hard yes when he needs her to be.
And that's different than Congressman Ralph Norman, who, you might remember, endorsed his longtime friend, former governor, former U.S. U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary. He came around and supported Trump eventually when she dropped out. But that's just one example of maybe not all the times when Ralph Norman has been in lockstep with President Trump, which is the modern-day Republican Party.
He's a member of the House Freedom Caucus. And if you go back to 2025, which is a lifetime ago in January, when it was president-elect Donald Trump, when he was trying to get Speaker Mike Johnson elected, Ralph Norman was one of those holdouts, so much so that Congresswoman Nancy Nace, also from South Carolina, got the president on the phone, walked it over to Ralph and said, talk to him, get him in the room.
And again, that was an advantage. That was a moment there where Congressman Norman was talking about using that moment as leverage to really try and get some of his concessions granted. But again, these days, you don't use leverage against the president, especially in your own party. He uses it against you. And that's what we're seeing happen right now.
MICHAELSON: And if he ends up losing, that's probably his undoing. But we'll see because as you said, the race is really close and it will be fascinating to see if we have a winner at this time tomorrow. People will be voting in the coming hours.
JACKSON: Gavin Jackson, host of "This Week in South Carolina," joining us from Columbia, thanks for your reporting and major props on your Zoom background. That's about as nice as it gets. We appreciate having you here to start us off on THE STORY IS. Now to this, the White House's so-called economic D-Day against Iran
turned out to be a, quote, "warning shot" for its trading partners. On Monday, the U.S. Treasury secretary threatened new sanctions on countries refusing to cut economic ties with Tehran. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent did not name any country specifically, but experts tell CNN that China, India, Turkey, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates could be most at risk for U.S. action.
Tehran's top negotiator dismissed the announcement as a bluster and says that Washington is, quote, "not in a position to limit Iran's economic relations."
CNN's Kevin Liptak had this question for Bessent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: You described this as an economic D-Day, but D-Day wasn't a threat of an invasion, and the U.S. didn't give a timeline to Germany. So why not impose these sanctions today?
SCOTT BESSENT, TREASURY SECRETARY: Well, we are giving everyone the opportunity, the -- to remedy bad behavior.
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Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period. But they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: Meanwhile, President Trump is escalating his trade war with Canada with promises of more economic pain. On Monday, he warned that if Canadian leaders do not, in his words, fall in line, then the consequences would be far worse. He's threatening to double tariffs on Canadian cars and car parts to 50 percent. That's on top of the 50 percent tariffs he placed on many Canadian goods over the weekend.
Canada, meanwhile, is promising to match those levies dollar for dollar. But the prime minister of Canada, Mark Carney, says his country is willing to return to trade talks if the Trump administration has, quote, "the right attitude." He said that last week's negotiations fell apart when U.S. officials demanded last minute and unfair trade terms.
President Trump, meanwhile, sharpened his rhetoric in a Truth Social post, saying Canada is, quote, "Among the worst nations in the world to deal with," and that the U.S. doesn't need Canada but they need us." One of his targets, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who had a harsh response to the president's insults.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Did the prime minister tell you to -- ask you to tone it down a bit?
DOUG FORD, ONTARIO, CANADA PREMIER: No, he didn't. I'm not going to comment, but he wasn't against that. And I have a lot of real estate on my (EXPLETIVE DELETED). So he has a lot of room to kiss (EXPLETIVE DELETED). So.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well done.
FORD: I just do. I'm a big dude. What can I say? Hopefully they'll come to their senses when they see the pain he's putting on the American people. And we have to focus on the red states. I've been in this game a lot longer than he has. I got skin on me like an alligator. And you think an insult from him hurts me? Well, bring it on, buddy. I'm ready. Bring it on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: Ryan Patel has relatively little real estate back there. He joins me now. He's a senior fellow at the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
The workouts are working, Ryan.
RYAN PATEL, SENIOR FELLOW, DRUCKER SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, CLAREMONT GRADUATE UNIVERSITY: Yes.
MICHAELSON: Good to have you. So tariff talk, trade talk, all this bluster back and forth. What does this mean for the average American, the average Canadian? Is this going to make things more expensive?
PATEL: So in the long term yes. But let me take a step back what this is going on right now. I think when you think of the North American supply system, $20 billion of is what is going to be taxed in 50 percent, 5 percent of the imports from, you know, that Canada is buying from the U.S. so relatively a little bit smaller. But really what the story is, the story is -- THE STORY IS.
MICHAELSON: Thank you.
PATEL: THE STORY IS, the -- it's not so much about the tariffs. It's about the inputs that's going to cost. So you saw the automotive, for example, like it's not just about the product that you're buying from Canada. It's the car parts that go back and forth between the two. So the inputs and the supply chain, that's where it's going to be more expensive. And so if you think about investments, how companies are trying to choose to do for the consumer, they cannot assume that what's going to happen now to six months from now, they're going to make a decision today to do it.
So the reason why this is the story is because the North American supply chain system, should it stay where it is, would be a lot more expensive for both countries, which at the end of the day will be expensive for the consumer.
MICHAELSON: Yes, because there's been so much on the tariff front. One day it's this, one day it's this. One day you're the worst thing ever. The next day we made a deal. All the rest of it, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, that it's kind of exhausting and hard to even follow and wonder how much of it is true. Is this real? Is this a real thing, what's happening now?
PATEL: I mean, I think you just said it, and this is what I was trying to hopefully focus on is it's the rhetoric is to get to a negotiation point. Let's just -- if you take all the political aspect to it and think about it from a business perspective, they're trying to get a deal done. How is it going to get done, right? And really, there's a deadline, January 6th -- not deadline but what I think is a deadline is the 50 percent of the automotive will hit in six months. So it gives them, and we've seen this kind of trade before between the two.
Mark Carney came out and said, hey, we'll do a deal if we can and this is what's happened before. You know what's going to happen most likely, hopefully I'm wrong, we get near the deadline, we're going to go back and forth for the next couple of months, and then they're going to end up doing a deal.
MICHAELSON: Right. And then I guess the question is who ended up paying more money and who gets money back and all the rest of it. In the past, it was found that some of the tariffs were not legal, right? And companies got a rebate check. But you know who didn't get the rebate checks? All of us that paid the money to the companies. So it was like almost like a big tax break for them. But -- OK.
Meanwhile, its D-Day for Iran without an invasion as Kevin Liptak pointed out. Who is actually being targeted with this economic D-Day? And what do you make of those threats?
PATEL: Yes. So this story is less about -- this is not just a tariff on Iran. This is -- if you take a step back, we're talking about the global economic system that the U.S. potentially is saying they're going to use.
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So, for example, the currency rate of anyone who's doing, you know, business with Iran could be China, could be India, could be other countries that could affect the U.S. currency, their currency. This is a global financial system that could potentially be sanctioned among all of us. So I want people to understand this is what that D-Day comment I think is what they're trying to loop. It hasn't occurred yet. That's not what they're doing.
MICHAELSON: Yes. So this is a bigger deal than the tariff fight with Canada.
PATEL: Yes, they're two different stories, but there's two different aspects of how you're using economic power. We're talking about right now global leverage in a financial system that is being dangled out there, that this is what the U.S. could do.
MICHAELSON: So if they do that and they launch their invasion of Normandy, what's Iran's response? What kind of leverage that they have? PATEL: I mean, the leverage is there's a lot -- they have their own
partners as well, right? That they could put leverage on that they do business with. And we've seen, I mean, obviously, economically, they have less to come back toward the U.S. but their partners can. The whole ecosystem can, right? And we know we're -- you know, the majority of the oil is being bought by other countries.
That pressure could be put on by the U.S.. I don't think we want to be in that -- I don't think anybody wants to be in that situation for any consumer around anywhere, to be honest. And I think the threat is very interesting. I think it should be seen by the average person that they haven't gone to all the way to that point to all those financial institutions and say, you can't do business with, you know.
MICHAELSON: And of course, they still have control of the Strait of Hormuz.
PATEL: Yes.
MICHAELSON: Which the United States really wants and kind of the world oil market needs as well. Yes, interesting. Scott Bessent's comments there of not quite there. I don't want to destroy the world's economic system.
PATEL: I mean, to me, that's what this story -- this is what it's about.
MICHAELSON: Right. Ryan Patel, always appreciate your perspective. Thanks so much for joining us. Great to see you.
Still ahead here on THE STORY IS crews are gaining ground against the massive wildfire near Reno, Nevada. We'll have the latest on their efforts and the tens of thousands of people still under evacuation orders there. Plus, the U.K. plans to grant Ukraine access to secret cruise missile technology. Still ahead, how Kyiv could use it to strike deeper inside of Russia.
And later, we'll hear from immigrants or migrants who were deported by the U.S. to a country in Africa that's considered one of the world's poorest and most troubled places.
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MICHAELSON: Firefighters are finally making progress against a massive wildfire burning near Reno, Nevada. The Hawk Fire is now 27 percent contained. It started on Saturday and has already burned more than 15,000 acres, destroyed at least 32 homes and injured several people. While some evacuation orders have been lifted or downgraded, tens of thousands of residents are still being told to be ready to leave their homes. Many have turned to local shelters and are encouraging others to do the same.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) LAUNA BRINTON, EVACUEE: From what I understand, there's a couple people left at the apartment complex because they had no place to go and I was telling another person that lives there, well, tell them to come to the convention center. I mean, I would not want to be in the line of fire.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: Favorable wind and weather conditions on Monday allowed crews to slow the fire spread, but the threat is far from over.
CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam has more on the weather conditions that could complicate the fight ahead.
DEREK VAN DAM, AMS METEOROLOGIST: The Hawk Fire just outside of Reno, Nevada, is an all-hands-on-deck type of wildfire. We have air personnel taking helicopters, dropping water and fire retardant on the front lines. There's also firefighters on the ground battling this blaze. Over 700 personnel attacking this from all fronts. And this is what it looked like this weekend as the fire started to crest up and over the hillside. There's a community below. We've already seen structures that have been burnt out.
Again the Hawk Fire located right about here amongst many numerous active wildfires over the western U.S.. We have increasing winds in this weather forecast, which is not good news. We have the heat dome to the south meeting up with trough that's trying to push in from the northwest, and that's going to put the squeeze on the pressure gradient, allowing for the winds to pick up, especially through the afternoon and evening hours. Could gust over 20 to 25 miles per hour across Reno and into the affected areas near the Hawk Fire. And the winds will pick up out of the southwest through the course of the week.
We're not expecting any rainfall as well. That's unfortunate. We have very dry vegetation amongst long standing drought over the western parts of the country, including this area. And then we add in the heat that continues to build over parts of the southwest. This is going to be a big story going forward from Texas through the Southern Plains and into the southwest, as our heat dome really builds in. In fact, here's a look at your temperatures for your Tuesday. 106 near Dallas, 100 for Oklahoma City, Las Vegas at 108. Temperatures in the lower 90s for Salt Lake City. Along the East Coast, temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Back to you.
MICHAELSON: Van Dam, thank you.
Ukraine is deepening its alliance with the Coalition of the Willing as the country marks 35 years of independence. Leaders gathered in Kyiv on Monday promising to boost Ukraine's air defenses and begin full scale military exercises in October. The British prime minister, who co-chaired the event, is also granting Ukraine access to classified Storm Shadow cruise missile technology. CNN's Nic Robertson reports on the deepening tensions between London
and Moscow.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: This comes at a time and will think back to the day, the 20th of July, not so long ago, when Andy Burnham was stepping over the threshold in Downing Street, becoming prime minister.
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That was the day a Russian naval frigate in the English Channel fired warning shots near a pensioner couple who were sailing their yacht in the area. The very next day, the Russian ambassador to the U.K. withdrew from the country and there's been a sort of a drumbeat coming from Russian officials warning Britain of consequences of supporting Ukraine and Burnham here, in his first overseas trip, remembering his first international leader to host in London was President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, going to Ukraine to make very, very clear he's not going to be intimidated by Putin.
He sees the way to bring the war to an end in Ukraine, to put economic pressure and military pressure on Russia, these missile components that he's giving the blueprints for. They're designed to have longer range, highly accurate cruise missiles that can bust through bunkers, tear through ammunition depots, pushing Russia effectively further away from the front lines in the war of Ukraine.
So this is an effort combined with the Europeans. And that was the point of having this Coalition of the Willing conference call there while he was in Kyiv today, as well.
MICHAELSON: Nic Robertson reporting there. Nic, thank you. Meanwhile, in Paris, blue and yellow lights illuminated the Eiffel Tower in solidarity with Ukraine on its Independence Day. Crowds gathered around the landmark on Monday night carrying flags and flowers in support of the anniversary.
The U.S. Supreme Court hands President Trump another win, this time when it comes to mail-in voting. But what does it mean for the midterms? We'll talk about that next.
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MICHAELSON: Back to our top story: the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in favor of President Trump's efforts to restrict mail-in voting.
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The Homeland Security Department and U.S. Postal Service could soon get big new roles in determining who can put their ballots in the mail.
I want to bring in our political panel. Lynn Vavreck is the Hoffen -- Hoffenberg professor of American politics and public policy at UCLA; and Eric Messersmith, political commentator and host of "Everybody Settle Down" on YouTube. Welcome back to THE STORY IS, both of you. Eric, let's start with you. How would this actually work in terms of
-- of these potential changes when it comes to mail-in ballots?
ERIC MESSERSMITH, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't think there's time for it to work. I think it's more going to end up being more of a 2028 issue.
I mean, remember, there's still an injunction on it, even after the one the Supreme Court temporarily halted today. Plus, it's going to go back up to the court again, now that the rule is officially finalized, or will be in a few days.
So, my guess is that there's just not enough time, even if they could get court approval in order to implement it for this year.
But I think 2028, this is going to be a big fight, if the Supreme Court allows this to go ahead.
Remember, states are supposed to control elections. This would be a monumental change: having the executive branch, unilaterally, without Congress, take over an important part of the elections in the future.
MICHAELSON: And who does that potentially help?
LYNN VAVRECK, HOFFENBERG PROFESSOR OF AMERICAN POLITICS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UCLA: Well, I think one thing to keep in mind about universal vote-by-mail is that this is largely a story of convenience.
So, it's not reshaping the composition of the electorate. It's not benefiting one side more than the other. The evidence -- good evidence -- is clear on this.
So, it's largely taking people who would be voting in person but giving them a convenient way to vote some other way. So, it doesn't increase turnout very much.
So, you're still -- if you're sick, absentee voting is a different thing. So, this is universal vote-by-mail. And it's just a different way for people to vote.
MICHAELSON: Well, and we've seen, in places like here in Los Angeles that the overwhelming, overwhelming majority of people, if given the choice, choose to vote by mail, choose to not vote in person.
VAVRECK: Yes, lots and lots of people are doing this in the universal vote by mail states. I think there are about eight or so.
And in California, we've actually reshaped the way you would vote in your local communities, too, because of this shift to universal vote- by-mail. And so, now there are vote centers instead of -- people may remember going to precincts in smaller places.
MICHAELSON: Yes. So, that is all happening. So, you think it's probably not going to affect these midterms. These midterms are really close.
MESSERSMITH: Yes.
MICHAELSON: The Senate map surprisingly close.
One of the most important Senate races is in Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed, who's gotten a lot of attention -- a progressive candidate, Muslim- American doctor, went on Jesse Watters' show on FOX, who's not known as the biggest Abdul El-Sayed fan.
And the two of them sort of went back and forth, talking over each other a lot. But interestingly, Jesse kept going back to a lot of these culture war issues. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JESSE WATTERS, FOX NEWS HOST: Should men play women's sports?
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: Go ahead and ask it again.
WATTERS: You have daughters, right?
EL-SAYED: I think that -- look, I played sports my whole life. Sports were an important part of my life. I'm grateful for the opportunity to play sports.
And at the end of the day, the decision of who gets to play what sports ought to be decided by the people who govern sports.
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I'm running for U.S. Senate, Jesse. It's insane. I'm out here trying to take on, like, the healthcare crisis and big pharma, and you're asking me about who gets to play what sports.
WATTERS: I don't know.
EL-SAYED: It's silly. People can't take you seriously. Really.
WATTERS: It's kind of a big thing, if you've been following the news recently, Abdul.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: I mean, certainly a big issue that's talked a lot about on that particular network a lot. And it does drive a lot of people in the Republican base.
But you've written entire books about this idea of the culture wars and how it drives politics. So, this just immediately made me think of you. What's really going on here with both parties trying to do their thing?
VAVRECK: I think that there is one unsurprising thing about this clip and one surprising thing.
And the unsurprising thing is that the host wants to go after a Democratic candidate on these identity-inflected topics. The Democrats are out of step with the majority of public opinion on these issues. And if the election becomes about these things, then the people in the middle who swing and decide elections are going to swing away from the Democrats. So, that's the not surprising part.
The surprising part of that clip is not having a better response to these repeated -- there were many of them. This wasn't the only one in the clip.
MICHAELSON: Yes.
VAVRECK: And you have to know this is coming. It is coming. It's 2016. It's 2018. 2020 we had the pandemic, but that also became about identity issues.
MICHAELSON: So, what is a good response there?
VAVRECK: Well, OK, this is where you need your political consultant guests on.
MICHAELSON: Yes.
VAVRECK: But the best response, if you're a Democrat, is to be able to, in some way, neutralize this issue, get it off of the agenda. There's no better way to make something irrelevant to voters than to have both candidates taking the same position.
Now, for a lot of Democrats, that's just not -- going to be a nonstarter. But if that is something that a candidate can authentically do, they should do it. It neutralizes it. And then get back to these guys haven't delivered for you.
MICHAELSON: Yes.
VAVRECK: And you need to kick them out.
MICHAELSON: So, let's talk about where the Senate map is right now, Eric. An interesting "New York Times" headline today: "Can Democrats Win Back the Senate?" Their chances are improving and why their chances are improving.
And they wrote about the fact that there are essentially nine states right now, the most important nine Senate races. And they're either toss-ups or lean Democratic.
And that probably shouldn't be happening, based off of the -- the elections and the states that we're talking about, including many states that President Trump won.
MESSERSMITH: Yes, the map should favor Republicans. But we know history favors the out party, the Democrats. And especially with Trump's approval ratings now averaging around 38 percent.
To me, I think the betting markets and a lot of the people who do the predictions, based on polling, have it roughly 50/50 right now. I think that's probably underselling Democrats a bit if you consider
that the Iraq -- the Iran War is ongoing. Oil prices remain high. We have the trade war now.
I think North Carolina and Maine, I think, are almost certain to flip to the Democrats. That would get them to 49 if they hold Michigan, which in this climate, if they can't hold Michigan, it's going -- that would be a major upset, I think.
So, now they would need two more. And I think most likely, those two would be Alaska, where you saw Mary Peltola perform very well in the primary up there. And Dan Sullivan, the incumbent, got around 44 percent. That's a bad showing.
And then I think seat 51 would be Ohio. I think Sherrod Brown coming back. He was in the Senate before. He's facing someone who was appointed, not elected to the Senate. He's been leading in pretty much every poll I've seen recently.
That -- even if they don't win Texas and Iowa and some of these other states, that would get them to 51.
MICHAELSON: That would be a very good night. And often, it's not just about the party; it's about candidate quality.
That "New York Times" article raised questions about both Michigan and Maine because of the candidate choices, but we'll see. Clearly, a lot of voters are drawn to them, and we'll see what happens in the months ahead.
We also know that you guys are coming back for our next hour, so we look forward to more of a conversation with you then, including talk about South Carolina, another interesting Senate race.
But our thanks now to our panel: UCLA Professor Lynn Vavreck and YouTube host Eric Messersmith.
Still ahead here on THE STORY IS, deported to one of the most dangerous countries in the world. CNN travels to the Central African Republic and speaks with several migrants who had never heard of the country before being sent there by the United States.
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MICHAELSON: Welcome back. I'm Elex Michaelson. Let's take a look at today's top stories.
Republican voters will be going to the polls in the day ahead in South Carolina. They are casting their ballots in the Republican runoff between incumbent Senator Darline Graham and Congressmember Ralph Norman.
Graham replaced her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, who died in early July. The winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November. A judge has denied a mistrial request from Lindsay Clancy defense
after one of the prosecutor's medical witnesses referenced her Catholic faith.
The psychologist testified that killing is, quote, "a mortal sin."
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Clancy is accused of killing her three young children but maintains she was experiencing postpartum psychosis at the time.
The judge instructed jurors to ignore the testimony about Catholic theology.
Firefighters are making progress against the Hawk Wildfire near Reno, Nevada. It is now 27 percent contained, but about 23,000 people remain under evacuation orders. And a forecast of stronger winds paired with hot and dry conditions could fuel that fire in the days ahead.
We'll talk live to the mayor of Reno coming up at the top of the hour.
Now to this, though. The Trump administration's immigration policy involves so-called third-country deportations. That is when migrants are sent from the U.S. to countries other than their own.
Just months ago, ICE sent their first deportation flight to the Central African Republic, one of the most dangerous countries on earth.
CNN's Isobel Yeung traveled there to investigate.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HOSANNA (ph), SENT TO CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: I was so scared. I was crying, and I said, I'm not going out.
ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Hosanna (ph) thought she'd find safety in the U.S. She says she fled Turkey after facing death threats. But then, she became one of thousands that the Trump administration has deported.
HOSANNA (ph): First, my hands and with my belly like this and my foot.
YEUNG: So, they handcuffed and shackled you?
HOSANNA (ph): Yes. Yes.
YEUNG: And you still didn't know where you were going?
HOSANNA (ph): I don't know where I'm going to. I said where we are going? Tell me. And he said, I don't know. Maybe Central Africa. And I was -- I was in shock.
YEUNG: Have you ever heard of Central African Republic before?
HOSANNA (ph): No. YEUNG (voice-over): So, we are here in Bangui, in the Central African
Republic, trying to find out what happened with this ICE deportation flight that took place this summer, going from the U.S. to here.
We know that this flight happened in the shadows of secrecy. As far as we know, no one apart from U.N. agencies has managed to meet with these migrants. So, we're here trying to track them down.
YEUNG (voice-over): At 8:58 p.m. on June 11, 18, migrants from all over the world were brought to Alexandria Airport, Louisiana. They say they were handcuffed and shackled. Several claimed they were severely beaten.
Two of the migrants say they were forced into a full body restraint, like the one seen here in a demo video. A U.S. official called the allegation a flat-out lie and denied anyone was beaten.
The maker of one such restraint said it's a last resort tool intended to promote safety and prevent escalation.
Nearly 20 hours later, after a refueling stop, the plane touched down in Bangui, Central African Republic.
YEUNG: Maybe I can just start with where are you from originally?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm from Georgia.
YEUNG: You're from Georgia?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Egypt.
YEUNG: Egypt.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Afghanistan.
YEUNG: Afghanistan.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Iraq.
YEUNG: Iraq.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Jordan.
YEUNG: Jordan. So, all different countries. How are you all doing here?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Doing here? Like Hell.
YEUNG: Like Hell.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. No Internet, no electric. Too much of mosquito. Everybody have malaria.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE) GRAPHIC: [The police] detained us and then demanded money from us. Since that day, we have not left the building.
YEUNG (voice-over): The U.S. State Department warns people do not travel here for risk of kidnapping and terrorism, and advises those who must to leave behind a DNA sample so they can be identified by their family.
YEUNG: A lot of the migrants have told us that they are terrified to be here, and you can understand why. I mean, this is a country where there's been an ongoing civil war that's still taking place.
But even here in Bangui, there's very high rates of violence, very high rates of criminality, and very high rates of, you know, these armed groups operating here.
YEUNG (voice-over): I asked the police about the migrants' claims that they are part of the problem.
YEUNG: Some of the migrants here that I've spoken to say that when they go outside, the police stop them and ask them for cash and threaten them.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
GRAPHIC: No, no. Those police officers are checking who those people are. I don't believe they're asking them for money.
YEUNG (voice-over): Very little is known about what terms the CAR government agreed to with the U.S. But what we do know is that on May 18, just one month before the first deportation flight, State Department diplomats traveled here to meet with the president.
For the past decade, the U.S. has given just a few million dollars per year to the U.N. migration agency IOM's operations in CAR. But this year, that figure shot up to $85 million.
An additional $50 million was committed to the CAR Humanitarian Fund.
We asked the IOM about the money they're receiving. They did not respond to our specific questions, but told us that IOM has a long- standing presence in the CAR, and they're receiving funding from a range of donors.
But this is at a time when the Trump administration has been slashing billions of dollars in foreign assistance.
YEUNG: We have been trying to get a hold of any U.S. officials to talk about what's been happening and why and how they've sent these migrants here, because they are ultimately the ones responsible.
[00:50:03]
I mean, the State Department have emailed back, saying, "As a policy, we do not discuss diplomatic negotiations or funding mechanisms."
And the U.S. embassy staff have not been replying to us, but we're going to try and knock on the door just to see if they answer.
So, we just have some questions about the migrants that were brought here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All questions have to go through them. I'm not authorized to answer any questions.
YEUNG: All right. And is there -- is there anyone else we can contact at the U.S. embassy?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: BanguiPD@state.gov. The email I gave you. That's when you can call.
YEUNG: You're just going to ignore us and pretend that email never came. All right. Thank you.
YEUNG (voice-over): Eventually, the State Department did get back to us. They did not reply to any of our detailed questions but said, "The U.S. will use foreign assistance to support countries that help us achieve our immigration priorities."
It's a tacit admission that the money is tied to the deportations.
The U.S. government does have a responsibility towards these migrants. Most of those we spoke to here have protection orders from American judges, stopping the government from sending them to their home countries, where they're likely to face persecution, torture, or death.
FIDELE GOUANDJIKA, SPECIAL ADVISOR TO CAR'S PRESIDENT: Hello, hello.
YEUNG (voice-over): Fidele Gouandjika is a special advisor to the CAR's president. He also hosts a local radio show.
YEUNG: As you know, nothing happens in this country without a little sweetener. It's a little bit difficult to believe that zero money was given by the U.S. to Central African Republic. I mean, this is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, as you know.
GOUANDJIKA: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
GRAPHIC: I do not believe the government could be corrupt. I would not want to think for a single second that the Americans or Donald Trump are acting as corrupters.
YEUNG (voice-over): For Gouandjika, what's happened to these migrants is a sign of American cruelty.
YEUNG: When a powerful country like the U.S. comes knocking and asking for this help, is it difficult for a country like yours to refuse?
GOUANDJIKA: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
GRAPHIC: What saddens me about the United States, a superpower with all the resources could keep these migrants there, and they send them here to us instead. The United States is a superpower, but it is a power without a good heart.
YEUNG (voice-over): Perhaps most concerning of all are those who have nowhere left to run to, like this young pro-democracy activist from Iran, who says she faced possible execution for partaking in protests. Initially, she was overjoyed when she arrived in the U.S.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was too much happy. The America -- one of the best country in the world. And I say, it's OK. Now I'm safe, and I can make a new life here. I know if I -- I was in Iran, they're going to kill me.
YEUNG (voice-over): Earlier this year, Trump himself encouraged Iranians to keep protesting, promising help is on the way.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Every time I think they're going to protect me. But America not protect me. When they send me here, really, I lose my hope again.
YEUNG (voice-over): Isobel Yeung, CNN, Central African Republic.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAELSON: Our thanks to Isobel Yeung for that report. I should note that an extended version of her story will be available on CNN All Access -- that's our streaming platform -- beginning today.
Robots are being put to the test in Beijing, and some are exceeding world records set by the greatest athletes in history. A look inside China's robot Olympics next.
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MICHAELSON: This might be my favorite story of -- of the night. Chinese robots -- you've got to check this out; just the visuals are crazy -- are breaking human records at this year's World Humanoid Robot Games.
Our Mike Valerio there in Beijing to witness it all.
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MIKE VALERIO, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Some astonishing and not so astonishing feats in one of the Olympic stadiums here in Beijing.
VALERIO (voice-over): The humanoid robot named Lightning ran the 100- meter race faster than Usain Bolt's world record. But you know, these competitors, they don't need protein drinks. They need batteries.
Here at the World Humanoid Robot Games, robo-athletes are being tested like never before.
More than 2,000 robots from 16 countries are registered for this year's games, and we have kickboxing, football, table tennis. And some of these events are getting much harder.
VALERIO: The 400-meter race, for example, is now totally autonomous, meaning these robots need to see the track, navigate it, and cross the finish line without anybody guiding them by remote control.
VALERIO (voice-over): And this is actually part of the point. When a robot falls, gets confused, or manages to recover on its own, engineers get a real-world test of technology they ultimately want working outside the arena.
VALERIO: China's made embodied A.I., which is essentially A.I. in a physical body, a national priority. And the government has backed research, training centers, and real-world testing, as so many Chinese universities and companies have raced to build better robot bodies and even smarter robot brains.
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